TURKPULSE No:13............................JANUARY 4^th, 2000

Terrorist leader Ocalan has inadvertently played a miraculous role in the Turkish economy since his arrest last February. The Turkish Stock Exchange has since been breaking world records and by all indications this healthy development will continue if a mistaken step is not taken on this issue. Today Turkey is the last but most promising candidate for accession to the EU as a full member. PM Ecevit has set the deadline for this accession as 2004. It may be a bit over optimistic, but the nation seems determined to make the new millennium the "Turkey millennium".

For a journalistic trick the heading of this article is incomplete? Originally it had two more small words, "if ever", but to draw the attention of the reader and make the article more eye-catching we skipped it. Our intention is to induce the potential reader to remark, "What next? What are the Turks up to now?"

Actually an action as terrible as hanging a human being should not be the subject of any journalistic gimmick even though the criminal in question may well have deserved it by having stained his hands with the blood of over 30,000 people. So without beating about the bush too much let us pronounce our findings about this question: "Most probably never."

It is a fact that millions of people in Turkey want to see justice carried out with Ocalan’s execution at the gallows, regardless of Europe’s and the West’s strong objection, and this feeling is also shared by one of the coalition partner’s, the MHP. However, President Demirel has already said that it was not the pain-struck mother of the martyred soldier, but the rulers of the country who would make calculations of what the country would gain or lose.

As for the tendencies of Turkey’s rulers, the President, the Prime Minister and the two coalition partners are outspokenly against the execution. The chairman of ANAP, Mesut Yilmaz, has even gone as far as annoying many people by putting it in a controversial remark: "The road to the European Union (for Turkey) passes through Diyarbakir."

The Judiciary had no other alternative but justice, and it has said the final word about Ocalan, execution. It is now the turn of the political side of the matter, as Parliament has to ratify a death sentence before it is carried out. Since 1984 the Legislature has not ratified any of the 50 odd death sentences. But in the case of Ocalan, the issue has been politicised too much. The Opposition seems to be determined to try and open a wedge in the coalition solidarity by taking advantage of certain extremists in the MHP where there are loud demands that the death sentence should be abolished in Turkey only after Ocalan is executed. This tendency makes the vote on Ocalan’s death sentence precarious because, under the Constitution, the party discipline does not work in such voting. Every parliamentarian should vote according to his conscience in such judicial issues. To overcome this thorny question the Government tends to postpone bringing up the issue with Parliament on the grounds that there is a suspended verdict about it by the European Human Rights Commission.

And what about the all-important and powerful factor in Turkey’s public life, the Armed Forces? What are they thinking about this confirmed death sentence? The Chief of TGS (Turkish General Staff), General Kivrikoglu, has refrained from voicing an opinion about it by remarking that the Armed Forces are a party to this dispute as they have been fighting against this terrorism for the last 15 years. So to be fair they would accept the Government and Parliament’s decision about it.

Ocalan’s unbelievable role in the Turkish economy

It is certain that Ocalan’s execution would cost the Turkish economy dearly and postpone Turkey’s accession to the EU for a few years. Apart from these certain setbacks, Ocalan has already played an unbelievable role in the Turkish economy last year. Here are the facts:

The ISE (Istanbul Stock Exchange) index was 2,597 corresponding to 0.82 cents at the beginning of 1999 and closed the year at 15,208, corresponding to 2.81 cents, gaining investors 485.4% income on dollar basis. This enormous gain was diametrically opposed to 24.7% loss on TL- and 51% on dollar-basis in 1998. Instrumental in the loss in 1998 was the economic crisis in Russia as from the end of July 1998, because it resulted in the exodus of $7 billion from the Turkish economy until the end of the year. While Russia failed to pay for fleeing foreign investments, Turkey fulfilled its commitments, but it meant the stock exchange index falling from over 2 cents in the first half of the year to 0.81 cents at the end of 1998.

These ill effects of the Russian crisis on the Turkish economy continued in January 1999. On January 25^th the index reached the bottom at 0.73 cents. On the other hand, interest rates soared to 130%.

Mid-February 1999 was a turning point not only for the Turkish economy, but also for political developments and international relations. On February 16^th PM Ecevit announced to the nation that chief terrorist Abdullah Ocalan had been arrested in Nairobi and brought to Turkey by the Turkish security forces. This announcement not only secured top place for Ecevit’s DSP at the forthcoming April general elections, but also gave way to economic recovery. The year closed at 15,208 in ISE, while compound interest rates fell to below 45%. In Helsinki in December Turkey was included in the list of the EU’s candidate countries and shortly before that it became a G-20 member, thanks to Washington’s realistic reappraisals of Turkey’s future in the world.

Now that the ISE index has surpassed the 15,000 point before the close of the year, the question is how reliable and durable is this remarkable rise.

It is a fact that the sharp rise in the index from 5358 on September 3^rd to 15,547 on December 27^th is due to political stability in the coalition and economic measures taken in accordance with the IMF’s recommendations, rather than the foreign capital that returned to Turkey. Not much foreign capital has arrived in ISE so far.

It is expected that the real arrival of foreign capital to the Turkish market will be in the New Year, especially after the Davos conference at the end of January. By that time, finishing touches will be given to certain economic measures such as enacting the bill for international arbitration in economic disputes. PM Ecevit is expected to have a talk with President Clinton in Davos and it may consolidate Turkey’s economic recovery since Ocalan’s arrest last February. It is evident that Turkish rulers will not allow these promising developments to be hampered and frustrated by the execution of a terrorist, never mind how justified this penalty may be uras@ada.net.tr, January 4^th, 2000

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