TURKPULSE No:3 ............................OCTOBER 12th, 1999
WHAT WILL STABILITY BRING TO TURKEY?
Political stability has been achieved in Turkey after two decades of strenuous efforts. Is this stability durable? What is in store for this stability in the future? Everything revolves around foreign policy developments and security arrangements. A top commander’s unequivocal statement sheds light on what Turkey should expect if political stability is to continue.
DSP Chairman Bulent Ecevit said on TV before the election last April: "Since the close of the September 12th (1980) interregnum Turkey has always lived in an atmosphere of elections. I hope that this will not continue now. In such an atmosphere of early elections you can have neither political, nor economic stability."
The election returns made Ecevit’s party the biggest, but did not bring him to power alone or with his good partner Mesut Yilmaz’s ANAP. It took more than two months to work out the present tripartite coalition after some ups and downs. Luckily the tripartite coalition eventually formed by Bulent Ecevit, Devlet Bahceli and Mesut Yilmaz has been working smoothly. Now the question is how long this solidarity and stability will continue and what is in store for Turkey if it survives throughout its normal election period – five years.
Will the coalition survive for five years?
Forecasting five years ahead in Turkey’s turbulent political life is certainly more of fortune-telling than an attempt to make a reliable political analysis. It is pretty obvious that certain political and economic developments are in store for Turkey in the near future.
Above all, the stability and durability of the coalition in any foreseeable future is almost certain. There are two big dangers for this stability. One is PM Ecevit’s health. There are several rumours about his days being numbered. Claims ranging from Ecevit having cancer to Parkinson’s disease are widely whispered about with attributions to "well placed reliable sources", but the truth is that none of them are true. By all indications Ecevit will well be able to survive the next five years and keep his position as Prime Minister. Besides, even if something happens to this 74-year old Prime Minister, his successor is quite obvious, Husamettin Ozkan, who has so far proved to be worthy of Ecevit’s trust and confidence. He may well make a smooth soft landing to the top political position of Turkey in the case of such a tragic event and everything would continue without any change.
The second danger to Turkey’s political stability in the next five years is the change of the president in May 2000. As it stands (and has been forecast by this publication months ago) the Constitution will be amended and Demirel permitted to be elected by Parliament for a second time. However, it is not certain if it will be for another seven years. The amendment may prescribe two 5-year terms in which case Demirel may have three or five more years to go. Even though Demirel’s continuation as President is highly probable experience shows that nothing should be taken for granted in Turkish politics. As for an alternative to Demirel, the most likely politician is Mesut Yilmaz. Although it is simply impossible for him to be the President in May unless he puts an end to the political gossip about his dealings with the Mafia or shady businessmen when he was Prime Minister before the elections. Mesut Yilmaz has already requested that his coalition partners help him to amend the Constitution in order to curb the limits of parliamentary immunity. It means he will be sent to the Supreme Court over 8-9 investigation committee reports against himself left from the previous Parliament. As they are all politically engineered unfounded charges Mesut Yilmaz expects to be acquitted from these charges by the Judiciary and put an end to these speculations. It may well open the gates of Cankaya to him in future, if not this time.
Difficulties in store for smooth functioning of solidarity
One great setback for Mesut Yilmaz’s going places in politics is Washington’s stance. Shortly after Mesut Yilmaz became Prime Minister in June 1997 he went to Washington and worked out an impressive 4-point co-operation program. (Energy – Through Great Co-operation, not the "Great Game"). This program worked for a year or so, but afterwards it met with difficulties when the Yilmaz-Ecevit coalition insisted on giving effect to the Blue Stream project for natural gas imports from Russia, much to Washington’s all out opposition to it. This difference of outlooks put Mesut Yilmaz in the Americans’ bad books so overtly that when he went to the United States in September 1998 to address the UN General Assembly in his capacity as the Prime Minister of Turkey, no American rulers, much less President Clinton would receive him.
The same was the case during Mesut Yilmaz’s visit to the United States along with his colleague, Deputy PM Cumhur Ersumer (ANAP- Canakkale), shortly before PM Ecevit’s official visit to Washington last week. Quite the opposite was the case when Yilmaz and Ersumer visited Moscow after Washington a few weeks ago. These unofficial talks may have paved the way for PM Ecevit’s forthcoming visit to Moscow. That was the reason for the difficulties met in Ashkhabad last week between Ersumer and President Turkmenbasi who seems to be persuaded by oil multinationals about the wisdom of going along with the Americans, rather than the Russians, in these Caspian energy issues.
In other words, rightly or wrongly, Mesut Yilmaz is in Washington’s bad books and it may be a great hindrance in his smoothly working his way up in Turkish politics. In return, Turkish State organs and security organisations have covered a long distance in understanding and countering the Information Age’s secret weapon, the Disinformation Mechanism pestering the "free press, free media" in every democratic country. The War College in Istanbul is training top civil servants and rulers, military or civilian, in this regard. The Commander of the War College, General Nahit Senogul, said at the opening of the National Security Academy at the beginning of October:
"Here you will learn Turkey’s historic enemies. Here you will see why the European Union is not admitting us into the Union. Here you will see the Arab world’s animosity and hatred of the Turkish nation. Here you will realise that Turkey is the country with the utmost number of domestic and external enemies. Here you will see the filthy aspirations of those who want to take their revenge on Ataturk’s Republic by hiding behind sublime concepts such as democracy, human rights and rule of law. And you will be surprised to learn before you leave how they are trying to disrupt Turkey’s national integrity with its territory and nation."
Given the fact that these words are uttered not by a politician, but by a top Turkish commander in the know, it is obvious that disinformation agents’ tasks are not as easy today as they were before. That is why Mesut Yilmaz’s rising star may eventually take him to the summit in Turkey if he gets clearance from the competent authority, the Judiciary, about charges of corruption against him no matter how much the Disinformation Mechanism may work against him.
This is the main reason why in the new parliamentary year that opened on October 1st, these constitutional amendments have top priority in the Coalition’s agenda.
These amendments may also deliver deadly blows to the DYP Chairperson, Tansu Ciller, because the charges against her are not as flimsy as the ones against Yilmaz.
Contrary to Ciller, Mesut Yilmaz is popular with Ecevit and other insiders, as he is the architect of the present day stability in Turkey by forging the sincere co-operation and partnership between the DSP and ANAP two years ago. This fact opens all doors for him in politics, but the acquittal by the Judiciary is a must at the moment given his powerful domestic and external adversaries.
First priority goes to security and foreign policy
The first impact of a stable Turkey will clearly be seen in foreign policy and security arrangements. It will all revolve around energy procurement efforts, not only for Turkey, but also for the entire western world. The pivotal role Turkey intends to play in Eurasia is of essence to this foreign policy readjustment. Will the United States, the European Union or other forces such as Russia, China, Japan be Turkey’s sincere partner in these arrangements remain to be seen. Ankara aspires for the impossible – co-ordinated and harmonious work among all these forces. This optimism does not, however, stop Turkish diplomacy making preparations for the worst. October 12th, 1999,uras@ada.net.tr,