PULSE of TURKEY No:76 ............................ DECEMBER 3^rd,  1998

President Demirel did what he possibly could to quickly overcome the government crisis with the least harm and handed the duty of forming the new government to DSP Chairman Bülent Ecevit. The Prime Minister designate will now try to form a tripartite coalition with ANAP and the DYP and the key in this matter is clearly DYP Chairperson Tansu Çiller.

Will Çiller cooperate and take part in such a coalition or will she say, as she had already said a day before the duty was given to Ecevit on December 2^nd, that they could not possibly come together with ANAP within a coalition? It was too early to know the answers to these questions at the time of writing this article.

But this lack of knowledge is no reason to be hesitant about the future developments in Turkey’s domestic politics when it is a matter of the nation’s vital interests, because thank goodness they are not dependent on the political whims of Baykal or Çiller. A very sound and healthy partnership and cooperation of the centre Right and centre Left have appeared in Turkey over the last year-and-a-half between Yılmaz and Ecevit, and with the support of other forces of a pluralist parliamentary democracy it can safely lead the country to elections on April 18^th, 1999.

The “Civil Initiative” is behind Yılmaz-Ecevit cooperation

Already, the five biggest pressure groups of Turkey, which call themselves the “Civil Initiative”, have put down their weight behind the outgoing Yılmaz Government and are now going to repeat it more strongly with new adherences to the movement.

The two biggest labour confederations of Turkey, TÜRK-IŞ and DISK, the two biggest employers’ organizations, TOBB (Turkish Union of Chambers) and TISK (Turkish Employers Confederation), and the biggest organization for the self-employed TESK (Turkish Artisans’ and Craftsmen Confederation) representing millions of people from all walks of life held a long meeting on November 10^th to consider the political situation. They prepared a declaration urging political parties to refrain from creating a government crisis at such a critical time for the country and inviting the CHP to join the government rather than topple it. Their intention was to publish the declaration the following day, but Korkmaz Yiğit’s broadcast accusations of the Prime Minister on November 11^th and Deniz Baykal’s rush to cancel his meeting with Mesut Yılmaz stole a march over them and the Government crisis broke out.

Nevertheless, undeterred by these negative developments they still issued their declaration on November 17^th and said:

“Even though the problems of the country and the people are on the rise and the steps taken by the Government for their solutions are inadequate, it is no use the country wasting time with a chaotic government crisis at a time when the global crisis is deepening and intensive efforts are being exerted for the extradition of the chief secessionist terrorist. Considering that this parliament from which three governments have emerged so far cannot produce another government, it is evident that this government should stay in power until the elections with the adherence of the CHP, if necessary.”

The Civil Initiative also announced that they would not stand by and watch these political intrigues and would unmask the politicians who kept their personal political interests above the problems of the people. “We will take an active interest and put down our weight against this understanding that does not want civil communal organizations in politics,” they pledged.

Now that the President has done his part in an attempt to quickly solve the government problem totally within the Constitution, this Civil Initiative is bound to be more active in the critical period ahead and facilitate the formation of the tripartite coalition under Ecevit.

What if Çiller chooses to ignore the Civil Initiative and others?

Baykal did not take any heed of these warnings and carried on with his initiative to topple the Government. DYP Chairperson Tansu Çiller may follow suit and refrain from joining the coalition or supporting it from outside. Then what would happen to the Ecevit Government?

No one should seek the answer in a military takeover or other unconstitutional developments, as certain politicians like Çiller foster such suspicions by seeking their political popularity in cheap heroism by issuing defiant statements against the President and the NSC.

Everything will be in accordance with the rules of law, and the provisions of the Constitution enable the President to solve this problem with the Ecevit Government.

Assuming the worst for a minute that the three parties which toppled the Yılmaz Government will persevere in their adverse stance and refrain from supporting the Ecevit Government, because it is the continuation of the Yılmaz Government, what is the Ecevit Government’s chance then? The Yılmaz-Ecevit team already has 197 seats in Parliament and with the addition of the independents, and a sizable part of the DTP and other small parties it can easily reach 215-220. It will take a few weeks for Ecevit to make these contacts and, as time goes on, dissidents are bound to appear in especially the DYP and the CHP, even probably in the FP to urge the party centres to moderacy. It may go as far as splinterings in these parties under the pressure of the people and civilian initiatives, not to mention the Military’s subtle support.

Again assuming that no result came out of it and the adamant path continued on the part of the opposition front, then Ecevit will go to the President with an ANAP-DSP and possibly some others coalition with precarious chances at the vote of confidence ahead. The President can reject endorsing such a Government and give the duty someone else, but it would mean the continuation of the Government crisis with all its adverse impact on the economy, stability and external relations. It is almost certain that the President will not do that and give a chance to the Ecevit Government by endorsing it. From that moment on Mesut Yılmaz will cease to be Prime Minister and Ecevit will have that position. All this will take at least a few weeks. Then the Ecevit Government will prepare its government program, read it in Parliament, debates will take place on it and then the vote of confidence. The budget is now suspended. It will be another priority topic of Parliament and may well be legislated in time if the Yılmaz-Ecevit team decides to give it the go-ahead before December 15^th and most probably they will. All these will take another month and we will have reached February.

Again, assuming the worst that Ecevit looses the vote of confidence sometime in February. He will tender his resignation and the 45-day period will start for the President to designate his own election government. By that time it will be at least the second half of March and less than a month to the elections. Would it be worth to change the Prime Minister and make new arrangements for another government under Article 116 of the Constitution? Such a Government has to include all the political parties proportionally in accordance with their strengths in Parliament. It would have 10 FP, 10 ANAP, 7 DYP and five each DSP and CHP ministers. The key ministries, the Interior, Justice and Communication have to be independents. Article 116 of the Constitution about such an election Government has never been practised and it is doubtful that it will be necessary this time either.

So most probably the Ecevit Government will be there to rule until the elections with or without the vote of confidence. It will be a continuation of the Mesut Yılmaz Government without Yılmaz as the heading of the Pulse article reads back in August and the articles before that stressed, ( Yılmaz Government Minus Yılmaz)   uras@ada.net.tr, December 3^rd, 1998

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