TURKPULSE No:82..........OCTOBER 13th, 2002
Turkey received two carrots from the West last week, but neither contained much substance. The first was the keenly awaited progress report from the EU Commission about Turkey’s accession and the other was the less important QIZ (Qualified Industrial Zones) arrangement for duty free Turkish exports to the United States. The first did not give Turkey a date for commencement of the accession negotiations and left everything to the authorised body, the EU Ministerial Council, on 12 December 2002 in Copenhagen and the other was simply an insignificant lollypop, as confirmed even by official American documents, which are analysed below. PM Ecevit said of claims of “strategic cooperation” between Turkey and the United States, “I don’t know what is strategic about them.”
The EU Commission’s progress report about Turkey was disappointing for most Turks though it was not a hostile document. It praised as an achievement above expectations the Turkish Government’s and Parliament’s performance for passing several bills intended to conform to the Copenhagen criteria, but did nothing to encourage the pro-EU quarters of Turkey in their fight against Euro-sceptics.
Special status to Turkey is never acceptable for final solution
It was taken in Ankara as the West’s intention to wait for the 3 November election returns before taking any steps about the accession. PM Ecevit said, “the European Union has shown its intention not to admit Turkey into the Union if a party against secularism is elected on 3 November.” Thus Ecevit favoured his coalition partner MHP and aimed more against Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP as well as the SP. The champion of the EU accession Deputy PM Mesut Yilmaz of ANAP said at an impressive rally in Antalya on Sunday (6th), “Seeing Turkey as a full member of the EU is more important for me than being the next prime minister.” He continued to be the driving force for Turkey’s accession along with Bulgaria and Romania by 2007, but as things stand today the EU seemed to be reluctant to admit Turkey in the Union before ten years or more if it can help it. Instead the Europeans, and possibly Washington, which ostensibly does everything to help Turkey in its prospective EU accession, prefer to gain as much time as they can in admitting Turkey in this club of rich European countries. That is why they have been trying to offer Turkey a special status within the Union instead of full membership, which will eventually make Turkey with its 70 million young population one of the 4-5 leading countries of the Union along with Germany, France, the UK, plus maybe Italy and Spain. That is why, mindful of the special advantages they are enjoying within the Union, smaller members of the EU led by Ireland, are objecting to the present enlargement with ten countries, plus Turkey, Rumania and Bulgaria, as the second batch.
Yet Turkey’s association with the EEC, the forerunner of the EU, dates back to 1959 and Turkey has covered a long distance both politically and economically in this nearly half a century period and is now pushing through with great determination an impressive drive to eliminate the last relics of its shortcomings in all respects. Alarmed by the prospects that Turkey may be the biggest country of Europe with a rapidly industrializing and growing economy in the coming decade or two if it has access to the Union’s special funds for new members, the West seems to offer Turkey a special status rather than full membership. Yet the 1963 Treaty of Ankara for the Turkish association stipulates in its Article 28 that the target for Turkey is full membership. For that reason Ankara rejected the special status offer when it made its official application for full membership in April 1987 and has since continued with this rejection. Mesut Yilmaz said about the latest progress report last week that Turkey should never be taken in by these offers of special status, but should firmly stick to its treaty right of full membership.
Despite this determination of Turkey, the Europeans seem to be equally determined to push through a special status for Turkey and that is what the Customs Union between Turkey and the EU is. They now want to enlarge the customs union by probably including agriculture, instead of accession, but such arrangements only shorten the way for Turkey in its final accession, at a certain price for the Turks maybe. The customs union for the industries of the ten new members, plus Bulgaria and Romania will now be the toughest question in their accessions, but this question has already been solved for Turkey whose industry enjoys full liberalisation and zero tariffs in its trade with the EU and vice versa.
Yet this customs union, which went into force on January 1st, 1996, has clearly worked in favour of the EU. The Euro-sceptics such as the MHP note that in the five years before 1996 Turkey had a $6 billion deficit in its trade with the EU, i.e. just over $1 billion a year. In the five years from January 1st, 1996 this gap soared to $56 billion, averaging more than $11 billion a year. Even though this enormous deficit was a disadvantage for the Turkish economy, the customs union helped Turkey establish a modern industry totally based on free market rules and free competition, rather than the protectionism and bilateral trade arrangements of the former Soviet system and the Middle East countries. This trade gap was also closed by other means such as tourism, workers` remittances and growing Turkish capital in Europe. So the accession to the EU continues to be the target of at least two-thirds of the Turkish people and all the major political parties represented in parliament, including the MHP with some reservations. The outgoing government continues to pass the rules demanded by the EU for accession, despite its preoccupation with a critical general election with the end in view of getting the negotiation date at the Copenhagen summit in December. Also, the Americans, keen on keeping Turkey on the western front at any cost, are helping, which facilitates Ankara’s task and efforts.
The USA’s carrot, QIZ, is empty in every respect
Air Force Commander Gen. Cumhur Asparuk denied on Friday (11th) that the United States was building up war stocks at Incirlik airbase for action against Iraq. He said, “We would have been informed if they had brought a single bomb shell to Incirlik. They carry about melons there and you think it is bombshells.” This remark was a good answer to the press reports that the Americans were making war preparations in Turkey against Iraq and that Turkey would eventually come round to joining the United States in this attack when paid enough. Yet, far from changing its decision about doing everything in its power to prevent the American military action, Turkey is announcing its top-level resolution that an independent Kurdish State in northern Iraq is casus belli.
In return, the Americans are refraining from improving their economic relations with Turkey no matter how mutually beneficial it may be. Fresh proof of this trend was seen last week when Congress passed the bill for a QIZ (Qualified Industrial Zones) arrangement with Turkey in accordance with the resolutions taken in Washington during PM Ecevit’s official visit to the United States on the first days of the year. Everything in regard to the QIZ question is progressing along the lines forecast by Pulse six months ago on April 22nd, 2002 (ýssue No: turkpulse 69) and, to say the least, the whole thing is far from justifying the claim that there is strategic cooperation between Turkey and the United States. Indeed, PM Ecevit said during a televised election interview on CNN Turk on Saturday (12th) “I don’t know what is strategic in our relations with the United States.” Here are the facts.
According to the American bill for QIZ arrangements with Turkey, which was done by adding a single article to the US-Israeli Free Trade Agreement, this trade will be a tripartite arrangement also involving Israel, but the details of the final arrangements are still unknown. What is known is enough not to expect any good from this arrangement unless Washington is satisfied about the prospective military action in Iraq and this is simply impossible for any Turkish Government to do no matter who may be in office after the elections in three weeks.
At present, Turkish-American trade relations are run within the Americans’ GSP (Generalized System of Preferences), the scope of which is revised by the American Administration every year, as there are quotas in 42 categories for Turkish exports to that country. Turkey fails to fill the quotas in many categories and presses for flexibility for transfer of quotas between the categories, and it is the only good that may come of the QIZ arrangements, according to the latest trends at the economic talks.
Apart from that Washington insists on excluding the labour intensive sectors from QIZ (textiles, clothing, shoes, leatherwear, working gloves etc) and that is enough to render QIZs ineffective. Turkey applies 4-6% import duties on American industrial goods (in accordance with the EU’s external tariffs within the Customs Union) and Americans accord 15-30% import duties on Turkish textile and clothing exports.
According to a report by AAFA (American Apparel and Footwear Association), Turkey’s $3.1 billion exports to the United States last year paid $220 million import duties. Of this total $202 million remains outside the scope of QIZ arrangements. In other words, the most Turkey will get from the QIZ practice is $18 million duty exemption and it is peanuts within a trade figure of $3.1 billion.
Into the bargain, quotas will be abolished in the world as from 2005 and the finalization of the QIZ arrangements may stretch to 2004 and even beyond because 1) Turkey will have to conclude a trade agreement with Israel, 2) the U.S.Trade Department has to recognise that agreement and 3) the QIZ arrangements should be institutionalised before first exports start from these QIZs. All these formalities may be completed overnight if both sides are sincere about this mutual trade, but the present level of Turkish-American relations are far from that point. Turkey is the biggest stumbling block for the Americans’ designs for Iraq and the Gulf and it is unfortunately becoming a matter of life and death for both countries in the reverse directions.
The only hope in this grim picture in Turkish-American relations is that both countries are democratic great nations and their peoples prevent the recurrence of the American embargo days on Turkey as the practice of the last three decades prove. uras@ada.net.tr - October 13th, 2002