PULSE of TURKEY No:88............................ FEBRUARY 7th, 1999
TURKEY’S PLAN PUT INTO ACTION FOR IRAQI CRISIS
Baghdad has begun to withdraw its air defence installations from no-fly zones. It may be a sigh of relief for Turkey who was ill at ease over the American air strikes in the northern fly-zone. Meanwhile, Ankara has been working hard to update the DSP’s 1996 plan for the Iraqi question, to work out an international document parallel to that plan and to make preparations to safeguard national interests in all possibilities. ANAP has begun to consider Atatürk’s “National Pact” as a way out and it means accepting the Americans’ long-standing plans for Kirkuk and Mosul.
Important developments are in the offing in the US-Iraqi confrontation over the no-fly zones since December 28th when Baghdad began challenging these zones in the north and south.It concerns PM Bülent Ecevit’s plan to defuse and even solve the crisis between Iraq and the United States by bringing Washington and Baghdad to common grounds “with persuasion”. The key issue in this regard is naturally how realistic is PM Ecevit’s intention to persuade the two belligerent sides about the wisdom of this plan. It foresees inducing Iraq to a more democratic system, its full observation of UN Security Council resolutions, its territorial integrity and its full reintegration with the international community by lifting the sanctions.
Iraq still commands considerable air defence force despite air-strikes
There were several developments in the international field last week to inspire some hope that Ecevit’s plan may eventually become an international document to solve the problem.
Iraq has begun to withdraw anti-aircraft missile batteries from the no-fly zones in an apparent bid to conserve them, announced Pentagon sources in Washington on Thursday (5th), hours after they said that recent air strikes were taking a heavy toll. According to American announcements, US and British strikes in the past five weeks have inflicted more damage on Iraqi air defences than the four-day bombing in mid-December. “They have destroyed or hit about 40 anti-missile batteries since December 28th. That compares to annihilation of about two-thirds of the 34 Iraqi air defence sites targeted in the December 16th-19th strikes,” the Pentagon said.
It is still not known, however, if Baghdad’s move will facilitate the implementation in the international field of the Ecevit plan or if it is a step for fresh confrontations. An official statement issued from Baghdad on Thursday reads: “The Iraqi Government is seeking ways of developing air defence means in our country to confront the continuing American and British aggression.”
This statement is enough to show that Baghdad is planning to reconstitute its air defence forces with possible Russian or other external assistance. According to the Financial Times (January 29th), Iraq has 500 surface-to-air anti-missile batteries, 2000 AAA (anti-aircraft artillery) guns and 250 fighter aircraft. So the casualties Iraq suffered from the American air strikes are far from eradicating its air defence forces, and by moving them away from the no-fly zones Baghdad has wisely gained an opportunity to preserve them, as well as lick its wounds.
Would this move save the Iraqi air defence installations from the American attacks is not certain. There are tendencies in Washington not to allow Saddam to have a safe haven in the centre of the country. That means striking and eradicating the Iraqi military installations, especially air force installations, before opposition groups start an armed uprising within the country with external American and British help. If Washington puts into force such an open secret plan, however, it is certain that it can get no help from Incirlik, because the MFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) has already announced that Operation Northern Watch is merely for monitoring northern Iraq and this will never change.
Apparently in a bid to change this the Americans have reportedly made a fresh attempt last week. Admiral Steve Abott, the Second-in-Command of the American Forces in Europe, had a four-hour talk with Deputy Chief, TGS (Turkish General Staff), General Hilmi Özkök, on February 4th to discuss the military situation in Iraq. An American Embassy spokesman told Milliyet (5th) that it was part of the routine high-level consultations on Iraq between Turkey and the United States. The discussions focused on Operation Northern Watch and the Iraqi challenge to it in the light of the latest developments. Identity of views was achieved on all topics, he affirmed.
Yet it is common knowledge that Ankara is displeased with the air strikes by the Americans in the north and Washington is displeased that Turkey is cursorily permitting them in a very restrictive way for self-defence only within the “rules of enforcement” prepared by the TGS (Turkish General Staff). The Americans’ rules of enforcement exceed the limits drawn up by the TGS, but legally Turkey has the last word under the December 1996 agreement for Operation Northern Watch.
Now Saddam’s withdrawing forces from north of Parallel 36 will greatly facilitate Ecevit’s task for a conciliation with Iraq. If the allied forces strike Iraq as they did in mid-December this will be done from the south and definitely not from Incirlik, according to official sources.
Turkey supports Security Council concensus to end Iraqi deadlock
On Wednesday (3rd) the MFA issued a press-release in support of the UN Security Council resolution of January 30th, 1999 calling for working out new methods to end the stalemate in the Iraqi crisis. It reads:
“Turkey welcomes the concensus reached, following the consultations carried in the UN Security Council on January 30th 1999, on the ways to be followed for undoing the bottleneck in the problems concerning Iraq.
We believe that putting this concensus into implementation without delay and finalizing the deliberations of the three panels to be formed will be useful. We wish that at these deliberations a result in keeping with the letter and spirit of the Security Council resolutions will appear by giving due consideration to the gravity of humanitarian conditions in Iraq and its multilateral impact; to the total elimination of WMDs (weapons of mass destruction) from Iraq and the measures to prevent their non-reconstitution in future.
As a regional country and a neighbour of Iraq Turkey has sincerely defended the reintegration of Iraq with the international community by fulfilling the requirements of the Security Council resolutions, safeguarding Iraq’s territorial integrity and political unity. With this approach, we are of the opinion that at this point it is of special significance that all parties concerned make positive and constructive contributions to the process to be set out by the Security Council.”
As is seen by this official document, Turkey is working for the commencement of a new process in the Iraqi crisis as a Security Council document along the lines of the DSP’s updated plan on Iraq. It is because the Washington agreement of September 17th, 1998 for the Kurdish affair has in practice put an end to the Ankara process adopted in 1997 and that the new Washinton process is bound to end up in an independent Kurdish State in northern Iraq, as Ecevit has affirmed.
The representative in Ankara of the Turkomen Front of Iraq, Mustafa Ziya, confirmed PM Ecevit’s views last week. He told Cumhuriyet, “No matter how much the United States claims that it has no intention of founding a Kurdish State in northern Iraq, the infrustructure for it has been prepared, by and large. Now there is a local administration in northern Iraq. They are setting up an army. There is now a Kurdish army there. There are Kurdish ministries, other agencies. The infrastructure is being set up by mostly foreign NGOs (non-governmental organizations).”
Since last October, Radio Free Iraq has been broadcasting against the Saddam regime with American financing and management and now with the help of the Turkish Daily News publisher, Ýlknur Çevik’s contributions and participation, a powerful Kurdish TV station is being set up in the region controlled by Barzani. A Washington datelined AA dispatch reported on Friday that this new TV station, KTV, has begun broadcasts. The KDP leader, Massoud Barzani, said on KTV that “Öcalan has harmed the Kurds more than Saddam Hussein.”
Americans tried to establish this TV station in Turkey, near Diyarbakýr, but Ankara did not allow it as it is bound to engage in secessionist Kurdish and anti-Iraqi, anti-Iranian broadcasts, even if it may have been more careful against Turkey if it had been stationed in Diyarbakýr. By keeping the centre of these broadcasts away from its territory Ankara has avoided future frictions and disputes with its neighbours.
New formation in the Middle East with American initiatives
Meanwhile, a new formation is in the offing in the Middle East with active American efforts. Ankara sees the dismissal of Prince Hassan in Jordan as the next King, the political activities to unseat Netenyahu in Israel, the efforts to topple Saddam Hussein in Iraq and other developments in the region as the implementation of Washington’s new Middle East and Gulf policies. They hardly conform to Turkey’s plans especially in northern Iraq and the MFA is trying to get international support for Ecevit’s plan for Iraq.
The recent visit to Tehran by a Turkish parliamentary delegation under Speaker Hikmet Çetin, Turkey’s call for speedy implementation of the UN concensus for a new Iraqi process and Ankara’s strategic arrangements (such as the purchase of 150-km range Popeye missiles and other war industry cooperation between Turkey and Israel) with Netenyahu going beyond the Americans’ ages old wish to see a Turkish-Israeli rapprochement are all part of Turkey’s answers to the reorientation in the Middle East.
The “National Pact” for Kirkuk and Mosul? How realistic is it?
It was noteworthy that during a televised panel discussion of political party representatives broadcast on TRT-3 on Thursday, ANAP and DYP representatives talked of having a Turkish region in northern Iraq in the event that the disintegration of Iraq becomes unavoidable.
ANAP representative Irfan Demiralp (ANAP-Samsun) said that straight after the end of the Gulf War when there was a power vacuum in northern Iraq, Baghdad supplied the PKK with medium-size weapons and it continued until the UN measures went into force to stop them. And recently the Saddam regime had again begun to come closer to the PKK, because it was a dictatorship with no serious government rule. “As you will remember, straight after the Gulf War the late Özal wanted Turkey to have a say in northern Iraq and, indeed, he took very many initiatives to that end, but they were all obstructed at that time. At the point we have reached today we can now see what a mistake it was to obstruct these initiatives.
Today there is a trend for the division of Iraq. In other words, even though it may not be their wish the United States and the UK are heading that way. If there will be such a division, this should not be done without Turkey.It should not be shaped without Turkey. No matter how undesirable it may be, if there is to be a change in Iraq’s present status quo, Turkey should raise the National Pact. We, Turkey, are for the territorial integrity of Iraq. This territorial integrity is most important for the region today. It is important for Turkey, for Iran and for the entire region. But if this union of Iraq is going to be disrupted beyond our control, then Turkey should definitely bring up the National Pact. About 2.5-3 million of northern Iraq’s population are Turkomen. If there is to be chaos over Iraq, Turkey should seek the rights of the Turkomen who are mostly concentrated in Kirkuk, a little further south than Parallel 36.”
The National Pact mentioned by ANAP representative Demiral goes back to Mustafa Kemal’s independence war. Under the National Pact, which was the basis of the Turkish independence war, the destiny of Kirkuk and Mosul would be determined by a referendum of the local people. But this was left out of the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 and at the League of Nations Great Britain managed to annex Mosul to Iraq.
As from the end of the 1960s the United States encouraged Turkey through the Shah and other means to implement the National Pact and get Kirkuk from Iraq. These efforts were intensified during the Gulf War with President Özal’s understanding ear to Washington’s whispers, but the military strongly stood in the way and rejected it as an “adventure”. The Chief of the TGS, General Necip Torumtay, even resigned from his position over this dispute with President Özal.
The DYP representative, Doðan Güreþ (DYP-Kilis), said at the same panel discussion that it was forbidden for the allied aircraft to go beyond Parallel 36, but the Americans were resorting to “deceipt” and occasionally carrying out these violations. As a former Chief of the TGS, General Güreþ said that the Americans did it only once in his time and it was stopped at that time. Going beyond the Parallel was against the agreement and it should be prevented now too. “Such violations cannot be explained away with the excuse of radar locking. The self-defence claim should be documented and proved,” he stressed. The Americans were now using HARM missiles and hitting 20 km inland from Parallel 36, he said. “I know that they resort to such war gimmicks in operations”, he affirmed.
Doðan Güreþ also said that the US was now trying to topple Saddam but it was not possible with merely air strikes. Turkey’s present policy was to give Saddam some free hand to change for democracy but this was not realistic either as the Americans were constantly rejecting it, he said. General Güreþ called for Turkey to follow “réel-politik” and make sound calculations for the future without being carried away by sentiments. Moving the Turkomen near the Turkish frontier and returning to Atatürk’s National Pact in cooperation with the Americans would be wise, he suggested.
The DSP spokesman, Bayram Fýrat Dayanýklý (DSP-Tekirdað), said that he shared ANAP representative Demiralp’s views. If there were to be a collapse in Iraq, Turkey would not lose, but benefit, as it has had experience in this field for the last 15 years, he said.
It is doubtful that having a Turkomen region in Iraq, as suggested by the party spokesmen, is shared by the Turkish Government because it is not realistic. Turks or Turkomen are the educated elite of the Iraqi nation and are disbursed throughout the country. They neither number 2.5-3 million as Demiralp claims, nor do they have their own region. Their peasantry is located in a chain of villages which separate the Sunnis from the Shi’as. To upset this established setup is much more difficult than inducing Iraq towards democracy without interfering too much in their domestic affairs and that is exactly what the Ecevit plan is all about. uras@ada.net.tr, February 7th, 1999