TURKEY IN THE PINCERS OF MISSILES

Below is the translation in English of an article in the reputable daily Milliyet (January 18^th) by Ambassador Şükrü Elekdağ on Turkey’s initiative to get Patriot missiles from the United States over the current US-Iraq confrontation. It is a noteworthy outlook of a distinguished foreign policy expert, even though it somewhat differs from the previous article by Pulse.

The decision to deploy Patriot missiles in this country has given way to dramatic comments by the media. A highly speculated about scenario is the assumption that the United States will again gravely hit Iraq in the aftermath of the Bayram and that Saddam will make a missile assault on Incirlik base in retaliation. And, as a precautionary measure the Patriots are being brought to Turkey.

In my opinion, even if he may have lost his rationale, it is hard to believe, for the three reasons below, that Saddam would commit such madness as foreseen in this scenario.

First, it is common knowledge that the missiles Saddam could hide from the UN inspections are only a few. (This fact is also stated in the UN inspectors’ report.) While the damage Saddam would inflict on Incirlik with a few missiles of low decree of precision is limited, the price he would have to pay for such an action would be very heavy. Second, with such behaviour Iraq would induce Turkey to give support to the plans to topple the Saddam regime. Third, it would be proof that Iraq has hitherto lied to the UN on the missiles issue and that the belief will be consolidated that Saddam has also hidden weapons of mass destruction from UN inspectors. This, for its part, would strengthen America’s hand against Saddam.

In other words, it is rather difficult to claim that there is an imminent and effective threat to Turkey from Iraq. For that reason, there is, in my opinion, a dimension surpassing Iraq of the TGS’s (Turkish General Staff’s) initiative to seek Patriot missiles from the United States…

Sloth and passivity

The Gulf War has caused Turkey to appreciate the fact that the ballistic missile capabilities of its neighbours are constituting a threat to its security. Until then the Turkish Armed Forces had not viewed as a serious security risk the short- and medium-range missiles that the states like Iran, Iraq and Syria possess. The main reason was that these missiles did not have the precision to be successfully used against military targets and that Turkey’s big cities remained outside the range of these missiles.

Yet the Gulf War has revealed that these countries have had the capabilities to modify these imported missiles to suit their needs and gain higher capacities. In fact, Iraq had improved the 300-km range Scud-B missiles it had imported from Russia and made from them the 600-km and 900-km range Al-Hussein and Al-Abbas missiles, respectively. Iraq used 93 of them against Saudi Arabia and Israel. But the Patriots deployed in both these countries forestalled any potential damage by these missiles by destroying most of them in the air.

Following these observations the Turkish Armed Forces have decided to procure Patriot missiles to counter the potential threat from Syria and Iran. But financial shortages and the appearance of new urgent needs caused dropping the procurement of Patriots.

With the omission from the agenda of the procurement of anti-missile systems, however, Turkey has totally turned a blind eye to the missile threat that was gaining momentum daily in its vicinity and by totally falling into loth and passivity it could not develop any counter measures in this field.

The missile inventories of Syria and Iran

Today Syria has a large ballistic missile inventory. At the moment Damascus has 60 Scud-C missiles with a range of 500 km and a load carrying capacity of 770 kg. Ankara is within the range of these missiles… As for the 300 km range and 1000 kg capacity Scud-Bs, Syria has 325 of them in its inventory. Furthermore, Syria has attained the capability of using these missiles with warheads containing sarin gas. Syria, which has an advanced chemical weapon manufacturing capability, is also manufacturing VX gas, in addition to sarin gas.

As for Iran, it has 210 Scud-C and Scud-B missiles, and the Shahap –3 missiles that it has recently developed has a range of 1290 km. Shahap-3 has the capability of hitting all the cities of western Anatolia, primarily Istanbul… Iran, which has attained the technological capability of equipping its missiles with chemical warheads, is producing both chemical and biological weapons. The United States and Israel are claiming that Iran is very actively implementing a nuclear weapons program.

As can be seen, Syria and Iran, with these missiles and weapons of mass destruction in their hands, are constituting a vital threat for Turkey. Turkey, for its part, is deprived of both ballistic missiles and anti-missile systems.

According to what I understand, the Turkish Armed Forces are now trying to compensate for this defence void with the Patriots it will procure from the United States. Even though the Patriots are being brought to this country temporarily it is possible to extend this period…It is an exceedingly constructive development that Turkey has decided to take part in the manufacture of the Arrow anti-missile systems that are being developed by Israel and the United States. Pending the manufacture and deployment of Arrows here, keeping Patriots in Turkey will serve both Turkey’s security and the peace and stability of the region.

As a matter of fact, the most effective way for Turkey to counter a ballistic missile threat is to possess the same type of missiles itself. If the potential enemy knows that Turkey also has ballistic missiles and that it will retaliate in kind if it is attacked they may most likely give up using these weapons against this country. This is what active deterrence is.

Under these conditions, keeping in sight as much as possible the parameters of the international control systems to prevent the proliferation of ballistic missiles, Turkey should eliminate its years’ long unforgivable negligence in its security by both procuring ballistic missiles from appropriate sources and also developing this technology in a short time.(Translated into English by uras@ada.net.tr, January 18^th, 1999.)