TURKEY’S PLACE IN RESHAPING WORLD, ESPECIALLY EURASIA

 

President Bush’s discourteous remarks to two Turkish ministers was clearly the limit, as far as the American mistreatment of its traditional staunch and reliable ally Turkey goes, in the current Iraq crisis that has already culminated into a painful hot war. Its consequences remain to be seen, not only in the course of the ongoing tragic war, but also in the much more profound impact on the reshaping of the world in the post-war period. The statement by Turkey’s top commander, General Ozkok, in Diyarbakir last Wednesday (26^th) is especially indicative of the future developments in Eurasia. For the details please see the article below.

 

One of the most significant aspects of the current war in Iraq is Turkey’s refusal to be a springboard for the American forces to Iraq, and it is also one of the main reasons for the unexpected problems the coalition forces are meeting with in the war despite their frightening striking air force and the latest technologies they profusely use in bombing cities.

Turkey’s efforts to prevent the recurrence of the abuses of its goodwill during the first Gulf war were misrepresented worldwide by the Americans as horse trading for economic gains. The anti-Turkish articles, cartoons and statements published by western media over this issue greatly annoyed Turkey and affected its line of conduct in the current war against cooperating with the United States. The determining factor in this respect was President Bush’s scandalous remarks to two ministers in Washington during these critical days of decision making. He reportedly said to the Turkish Foreign and Treasury Ministers, Yasar Yakis and Ali Balaban, that Texans would rip off and strip naked horse traders. The then FM Yakis attempted to rectify this immensely unjust remark about, indeed insult to the Turkish nation by saying “Do you know how much Turkey lost in the first Gulf war?” Rather than sobering up, the American side continued with the misconduct. White House staff present at the audience whispered to Yakis that the President could not be interrupted and what is more the American Disinformation Mechanism reflected the incident to the Turkish media with distortions by making its obedient servant columnists report to the Turkish nation that Yakis rudely said to President Bush, “Sen Turkiye’nin birinci Korfez harbinde ne kadar kaybettigini biliyor musun,” as if it is possible to say it in English which has long deleted the over familiar or rude second person singular. Coupled with the systematic western disinformation campaign against Turkey on the whole issue, the Bush Administration finally received the answer it deserved with the Turkish Parliament’s rejection of the American troops on its territory and the course of the war changed with other mistakes which Washington made about underestimating the strength of the determination of a nation to be free.

Today Washington is trying to rectify these mistakes by rejecting the Defence Secretary Rumsfeld’s theory of technology instead of more soldiers to the Gulf and announcing to accord Turkey a $8.5 billion financial facility “without Ankara’s initiative and not for any return”, but it is already too late with the damage done with far reaching consequences for the future of the world.

Far from any chance of inducing Turkey towards its own line in the war with Iraq by “buying off Ankara” with such financial facilities, the United States angered Turkey enough to lose its surveillance and intelligence possibilities from Incirlik as the Turkish Government has put an end to the North Watch arrangements which had been going on with biannual extensions since the first Gulf War. The last extension of the mandate was at the beginning of the year, but without waiting for its expiry at the end of June, Ankara cancelled this agreement when the American bombings of Iraq began over 10 days ago. The reason for this strong action was that the North Watch is based on the cease fire resolution of the United Nations in 1991 and Washington has violated this cease fire by attacking Iraq without a Security Council resolution.    

Turkey’s search for regional security arrangements is intensified

The post WWII period’s UN centred peace order and NATO that was set up as a regional peace and security organisation within that system have been delivered severe blows by the Bush Administration’s war on Iraq without a Security Council resolution or a NATO decision.

The Turkish public has been closely following war developments in Iraq mostly through the TRT’s cooperation with ASAM (Avrasya Stratejik Arastirma Merkezi – The Eurasia Strategic Research Centre).

Before the outbreak of the war nearly two weeks ago, ASAM published a report on Turkey’s place in the world in the light of the pending war. Even though it was treated as an ASAM publication, it was in fact a semi-official American appraisal of Turkey made by the California-based Rand Corporation.

According to this survey, Turkey, with its massive Muslim population and enormous weight in the world, has no future in the European Union. The prospects  of Turkish-American “strategic cooperation” is not any brighter because Turkey’s regional policies and interests are clashing with the global strategic calculations and ambitions of the United States. The Turkish-Israeli cooperation can never become a strategic cooperation because Turkey, as an Islamic country, cannot possibly sacrifice its relations with the Arab world for Israel. The survey comes to the conclusion, in the light of these assessments, that Turkey will seek its future in cooperation with the Turkish world of central Asia in the post cold war period.

Whether it was an ASAM or Rand Corporation survey, the report is proving correct and Turkey has intensified its search for regional security arrangements in the light of the latest developments over the Bush Administration’s determination and action to reshape the world as the unique superpower of the day.

The efforts to access Turkey to the European Union are continuing with not much chance of success in the short run even though the German and French appreciation of Turkey’s refusal to be a springboard for the United States has induced these two leaders of the EU to have second thoughts about Turkish accession.

The Turkish-American strategic cooperation has always been a myth anyway. Will Washington make more realistic appraisals of Turkey in view of the latest developments remains to be seen? Experience shows that Turkey and the United States always find a way out of their differences in the end and the latest move by Washington about $8.5 billion dollar financing to Turkey without any return is a good sign if it is sincere. Still, the observation is correct that Turkey’s regional intentions and plans do clash with those of the United States. Therefore, it would not be realistic to expect breakthroughs in this respect in the short run any more than the expectations of breakdowns.

Eurasia will be the determining factor for the future

While Turkey continues with its efforts to have as good relations with the USA and the EU as possible, it will definitely seek for more reliable arrangements for the region and this could be along the lines of the OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.) General Hilmi Ozkok indicated this in his latest statement on Wednesday. After having stressed that the current Iraq war is not Turkey’s war or duty, General Ozkok said, “There will be very important developments in Eurasia in the decades ahead. The question about this geography, which is bound to undergo a new reshaping, is with what country we will cooperate or in what group of countries at which contemporary level we will be.”

Due to its sincere loyalty to NATO in the last 50 years, Turkey declined to be within the regional security arrangement started with the Shanghai Five process as the Asian version of the OSCE. But now that the UN and NATO are on the path of losing importance with Washington’s discarding them in its Iraq attack and thereafter, it is apparent that Gen Ozkok’s words are indicative of a fresh search by the Turkish security organisations in this regard. It also shows that he is not sure of the “contemporary level of the group of countries” which Turkey will have to choose in the end.  Will this search go as far as a second thought about the Shanghai arrangements is not yet certain? What is more certain is the fact that both NATO and the EU are split into two over President Bush’s new policies. The Islamic Conference, the ECO (Economic Cooperation Organisation) or even the Black Sea Economic Cooperation are not very effective gatherings in any foreseeable future. Under these conditions, the Shanghai arrangements may be a good regional security organisation for Turkey’s Eurasia policy for the future. uras@ada.net.tr, March 31^st, 2003