TURKPULSE No:60..........DECEMBER 31st,  2001    

 

TURKEY’S CRYSTAL CLEAR IRAQ POLICY MADE CLEARER

 

General Kivrikoglu has made a timely warning about Turkey’s “State Policy” on Iraq. He dismissed the possibility of any military operation in Iraq against the legitimate government in Baghdad without Turkey’s military intervention in Northern Iraq. In other words, the Tripartite Declaration of 1951 by the United States, the UK and France about preserving the status quo in the Middle East and the subsequent Eisenhower Doctrine confirming the same principle is now the case for Turkey about Iraq and especially Northern Iraq, even though these doctrines have now been abolished. PM Ecevit’s forthcoming visit to Washington is starting in the light of this clarification and hopefully it will be a successful visit living up to claims of “strategic cooperation” between Turkey and the United States. Global peace needs such cooperation in this troubled part of the world within Turkey’s single standard foreign policy principles.

Turkey’s crystal clear Iraq policy has become even clearer with its top commander, General Huseyin Kivrikoglu’s unequivocal words to the press a few days ago. He pointed out the problems that the world has been living through for over half a century due to the creation of Israel with recent hardening tragedies because of Arab terrorist groups’ suicide bombs and PM Sharon’s hawkish policies in response. It was not possible, emphasised the Chief TGS (Turkish General Staff), to do the same with the Kurds by creating a Kurdish State out of Iraq’s Arab territory with a number of pretexts based on racism.

General Kivrikoglu and other official sources stress that 310,000 to 350,000 soldiers are needed for a military intervention in Iraq by the United States and that 50,000 American soldiers in Afghanistan was not sufficient for such an operation as Newsweek and other American media have been writing about of late. In return American sources point out their new military concepts developed in the last ten years and say that much less ground forces can now carry out such military operations.

Status quo in Iraq is Turkey’s “State Policy” and “casus belli”  

Thus General Kivrikoglu and then PM Ecevit and President Sezer have announced to the world the “State Policy,” which is the equivalent of the American “Federal Policy”, about Turkey’s Iraq and Gulf policies. Let us clarify a point about Turkey’s constitutional system that “State policy” means a policy belonging to the Turkish State and nation that cannot be changed by the Government or Parliament, i.e. the Executive or Legislative powers. That is where Marxists were wrong in their claim in the Sixties and Seventies that communism could come to Turkey if the people so determined at the elections and where Recep Tayyip Erdogan was equally wrong when he claimed that Sheriat, that is a theocratic State, could be founded in Turkey if the people so decided at the election. Neither is possible under the Turkish Constitution, which defines Turkey as a social, democratic, secular State ruled by law. Elections can be conducted only within these bounds in Turkey and any person or political party that has aims beyond these constitutional bounds is illegitimate.

In foreign policy too, Turkey has established principles that are “State policy” for any government, president or commander in office. It is common knowledge that three things can be “casus belli” for Turkey, even though Turkish Diplomacy dislikes using these two Latin words meaning “reason for war”, as it is based on Ataturk’s principle, “Peace at home, peace in the world”. These three areas are Cyprus, which necessitated the first military action of the Turkish Republic in 1974, the 6-mile territorial waters in the Aegean and the preservation of status quo in Turkey’s region, especially in Northern Iraq.

The American activities and intentions to create a Kurdish State in Northern Iraq and the distance they covered in the last ten years in this direction were one of the preoccupations of the highest security organisation of Turkey, the National Security Council, in the first months of the outgoing year. Coordinated reports were prepared by the MFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) and the security organisations and the outcome appeared in the form of a restricted circular from the Prime Minister’s Office.

In May 2001 PM Ecevit sent a circular to the government departments based on an MFA report entitled “Priority Measures Concerning Turkey’s Iraq Policy”. It explains the short-, medium- and long-term objectives of Turkey about its Iraq policy and the priority measures to be enforced therein.  The circular states, “Universal Declaration of Independence for a Kurdish State in Northern Iraq should be treated by Turkey as a reason for a military intervention.”     

The circular stresses the importance of the Repentance Act in the fight against the PKK and calls for urgent implementation by all of its principles and requirements.

The circular established a high-powered Steering Committee composed of the Deputy Chief of the TGS (Turkish General Staff), the Undersecretary of MIT and the Foreign Minister as its head. It works directly under the NSC, which shapes Turkey’s State policies.

The Prime Minister’s circular sums up Turkey’s Iraq policy in eight points:

·        Turkey will encourage Iraq to be peace loving and democratic.

·        Iraq’s territorial integrity will be preserved at any cost.

The implementation of this policy has begun to yield results and Turkey’s exports to Iraq increased by 150% this year. In the following years Turkey expects billions of dollars from that country and this trade will not be restricted to Iraq, but will also be spread to other Gulf Emirates and Iran, as was the case before the Gulf War. Already arrangements were made with the Emir of Qatar in Ankara during his State visit to Turkey last week. The State Minister for Customs, Mehmet Kececiler, attended the joint economic committee meeting in Tehran last week and a number of measures were taken during these meetings about increasing Turkish-Iranian trade. As from the beginning of the Iranian New Year, March 21st, 2002, Iran will abolish the special charges it levies from Turkish trailers carrying merchandise into or through that country.

During the Shah’s time Turkey’s exports to Iran did not exceed $30 million a year. After his downfall it reached a record level of $1578 million Iranian exports and $1264 million Turkish exports in 1985. Thereafter, it began to decline mostly because of Washington’s dual confinement policy against Iran and Iraq. On the eve of the Gulf War the mutual trade with Iran declined as low as $800 million in 1989. The flourishing trade with Iraq received a deadly blow in the last ten years due to the UN sanctions after the Gulf War. And, as General Kivrikoglu said in so many words, “enough is enough” and Turkey will allow neither a Kurdish State in Northern Iraq nor tolerate its trade with its neighbours be undermined by certain non-regional forces..

Can Turkey prevent the U.S. from intervention in Iraq?

If the recent friendship between Presidents Bush and Putin go as far as Moscow’s acceptance of the American military intervention in Iraq, it is obvious that there is not much Ankara can do about it. But as things stand at the moment, neither Moscow nor Iran and the Arabs can justify such a flagrant violation of international rules nor anyone, including the United Kingdom, seems to side with Washington about certain hawkish demands within the country. Even Colin Powell is against such an adventure in Iraq.

PM Ecevit has already said that due to its geographic location Turkey would inevitably get involved in a war against Iraq. This involvement, however, will not be joining hands with the Americans and occupying certain parts of Iraq according to Washington’s plans, but a military action in Northern Iraq to prevent the foundation of a Kurdish State there according to Ankara’s carefully prepared military plans. Turkey has already had innumerable military incursions in Northern Iraq during the last ten years and everyone has seen that these military operations were done with no harm to the civilian population and with no motives for land gains.

In other words, while the Americans would be totally denounced in the world for a military action against Saddam on the farfetched grounds that he has WMD (weapons of mass destruction) a Turkish intervention to prevent adventures in Northern Iraq would be welcomed even by Baghdad, Tehran, Moscow and the Arabs. Would it bring Turkish and American forces up against one another is too dramatic an event even to talk about. Turkey is playing its cards open and Washington is aware of all these consequences. That is why the good side of American democracy is carrying the day in this strife among the American rulers today and Washington keeps on announcing that it has not made up its mind about a military action in Iraq. PM Ecevit says Washington has promised Ankara that it would not to carry out a surprise action in Iraq without notice Turkey. Besides, the United States being a multi-vocal country every view can be expressed there. He says he will understand Washington’s real Iraq policy during his forthcoming visit there.

Washington relies on their new military strategy based on GPS and RMA

As for the claim that the United States cannot afford such a military land operation with less than 310,000 soldiers, as was the case in the Gulf War, American sources stress that in the last 10 years they have elaborated upon a new military strategy, unique in the world, that enables them to greatly cut down on land forces in such interventions abroad and that the Afghan operation is a witness to the success of it. This strategy is called GPS and RMA. The first is Global Positioning System that is owned and operated by the U.S. Department of Defence. Its primary mission is to serve the navigation needs and weapon delivery missions of the U.S. Armed Forces, worldwide. The GPS signals are produced by a constellation of satellites and are available at all times, free of charge. A matchbox size antenna ensures the position accuracy of plus or minus 10-15 meters. There are much more accurate ones in the hands of the American armed forces.

RMA is an abbreviation for Revolution in Military Affairs. RMA Watch aims to build an internet-based research centre, which provides a one-stop resource for militaries involved in the transition to an RMA force, according to American sources.

Thanks to these forces and devices and new smart bombs manufactured by the American industry, the U.S. Armed Forces can fight a war with much less ground forces. All they need is a small combat force equipped with certain laser devices to point to the much superior enemy army facing them. The air force finishes off the rest with GPS and RMA facilities. It means, believe the Americans, that big ground forces equipped with heavy guns, tanks, armoured vehicles are no longer needed for an operation in Iraq or else where. The Air Force provides the firing power according to the signal of small commando forces to be parachuted into the enemy lines, as was successfully done in Afghanistan.

Bi matter how true these claims may be, it is apparent that Turkey’s cooperation for an American military operation in Iraq is a must and Turkey’s State policy categorically dismisses such a possibility.

That is why PM Ecevit will focus on economic matters in Washington and try to get free trade principles for Turkey as Washington accords to the EU. He will stress that Turkey has customs cooperation with the EU since the beginning of 1996 and that the free trade rules Washington applies to Europe should also be the case for Turkey.

There is reason to believe that a new page for the better will be opened in Turkish-American relations during PM Ecevit’s forthcoming visit as evidenced by promising developments in the offing on Cyprus and the British and American support to Turkey in solving the ESDP (European Security and Defence Policy) problems. uras@ada.net.tr - December 31st, 2001    

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