TURKEY AIMS TO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN EURASIA

The biggest question about Turkey’s plans to play a pivotal role in Eurasia is the superpower struggle in this region. Most people believe that Russia is no longer a superpower, but the Dagestan and Chechen events proved last week that, superpower or not, the Russian Federation is still a great power to reckon with especially in Turkey’s plans for a pivotal role in Eurasia. PM Ecevit’s scheduled visit to Moscow within a few weeks may be a milestone in shaping Ankara’s plans for the new "Eurasian Order" in the new millennium. Ankara’s plans for Eurasia are far from bring free of serious difficulties and pitfalls.

Explaining the prospects of the Turkish economy, "through the perspective of foreign policy", Foreign Minister Ismail Cem said to British businessmen in London on September 3^rd that Turkey envisioned playing a pivotal role in the emerging Eurasian reality. "Present day Turkey aspires to be the leading economic and political actor in Eurasia and a prominent member of the EU," he affirmed. "We envisage an international mission which is no longer peripheral or confined to the outskirts of Europe."

FM Cem explains Ankara’s plans for the new "Eurasian Order"

According to the MFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs), in the new millennium Europe and Asia will form "an integrated whole, interlinked and interdependent". "Both continents," says Cem, "will gain substantially by being part of the same entity. Furthermore, much of the next millennium’s economic development will take place in Asia; the advent of new energy resources and communication corridors, as well as the actual and potential economic development of several Asian countries bear witness to this emerging reality."

Turkey has optimal conditions to contribute to stability and to enjoy the opportunities presented by the new "Eurasian Order"… Turkey is firmly positioned to become the strategic centre of Eurasia. In the past, Turkey was mainly recognised for its strategic contribution to NATO, but it now distinguishes itself through its economic vibrancy, its entrepreneurship and foreign trade.

While FM Cem was voicing these assessments of Turkish diplomacy in London and Washington, Turkish rulers were mobilised throughout the world to translate into action the plans to get natural gas through the Trans-Caspian pipeline.

Difficulties appear for the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline and Turkmen gas

Deputy PM and Energy Minister Cumhur Ersumer was in Ashkhabad last week conducting top-level talks with Turkmen rulers about the Trans-Caspian pipeline. President Turkmenbasi told him that, for the realisation of the Trans-Caspian pipeline, Turkey should stop the plans for importing 16 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year through the Blue Stream pipeline from Russia. Blue Stream was a project technically impossible to materialise. Moscow launched it to undermine the Trans-Caspian pipeline project between Turkmenistan and Turkey, he charged. He called instead for the speedy realisation of the Trans-Caspian pipeline by Turkey, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and the United States. Ersumer’s answer to this basically American outlook was that Russia would deliver the natural gas to Turkey in Samsun. Planning, financing and building this project, Blue Stream, was entirely up to them. How they would deliver this gas to this Black Sea port of Turkey was their business and responsibility, he affirmed. As for the Trans-Caspian project for Turkmen gas to Ceyhan, he assured Turkmen rulers that this project was of priority for Turkey, which had already done more than its share for its realisation. If Turkmenistan wanted Ankara to do more, "we are ready to consider it," he pledged.

Ersumer’s talks with Turkmen rulers also included joint oil production, Turkmen electricity supplies to Turkey via Iran and an effective economic co-operation, especially in the energy sector. However, the outcome was disappointing. Electricity imports from Turkmenistan via Iran were cut down. The protocol for the foundation of an international consortium including Turkey and Turkmenistan could not be signed. Turkmenistan seemed unwilling to accept Turkey’s argument that Ankara was keen on diversifying its energy imports and that this was the reason for its importing natural gas from Russia, in addition to Turkmenistan, Iran and other countries such as Egypt, the Gulf and Algeria.

The Ashkhabad talks confirmed Ankara’s suspicion that the West was not sincerely interested in the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline or the Trans-Caspian pipeline project, but their real aim is to supply the Central Asian oil and gas to the Far East through a pipeline to the Indian Ocean via Afghanistan.

In addition to the Trans-Caspian pipeline, the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline also met with difficulties in materialising. The Under-Secretary of Energy, Yurdakul Yigitguden, said on Friday (8^th) that the Consortium for the Azeri oil pipeline was insisting that Turkey assume the responsibility for "third country risk". If there is any delay in building the pipeline through the third countries, ie Azerbaijan and Georgia, Turkey will be responsible and pay indemnities in case it accepts the third country risk. Turkey found it totally unacceptable, he stressed.

Russia’s current offensive in Chechnya concern energy exports

Meanwhile, Moscow has taken effective steps to give effect to its plans for energy cooperation with Turkey in the new century. Duma has already ratified the Blue Stream agreement. The current Russian offensive in Chechnya is not unrelated to Moscow’s long-term energy and pipeline plans for Caspian oil and gas. Plans for massive Turkish exports to Russia, in exchange for energy supplies to Turkey from that country are also progressing at full speed.

Foreign Minister Ismail Cem said at the UN General Assembly last month, "Central Asia will certainly witness tremendous economic development, given its rich human and natural resources. Turkey, at the hub, will become an energy terminal connecting in more than one way, the wealth and resources of Eurasia. We shall see these mega projects of the next century realised in our country and our region. An OSCE summit to be held in Istanbul in November will set the stage for important decisions. The outcome will play a significant role in shaping the future security and co-operation of the Eurasian landscape."

It is evident from what the Foreign Minister says that Turkey’s plans for playing a pivotal role in Eurasia in the following years are not confined to the economy, but also comprise of security and co-operation in every field. A symbolic Turkish unit may be sent to East Timor before long within the UN’s peacekeeping efforts and FM Cem says, "Our political resolve to promote peace and stability is on record. Given the opportunity, we are prepared to take upon ourselves even greater responsibilities."

The superpower competition in the region, however, was far from providing this opportunity to Turkey. Indeed, it was delivering serious blows to Turkey’s Eurasia plans for the next millennium, as the developments of the last week proved. Should Turkey go along with Washington or Moscow in this power struggle in Central Asia and the Caucuses is the key issue for Turkish diplomacy at the moment. This dilemma increases the importance of PM Ecevit’s forthcoming visit to Moscow all the more. uras@ada.net.tr,  October 9^th, 1999