TOWARDS COLD WAR DAYS AND TURKEY’S PLACE THEREIN

 

         Gone are the happy days of the world where Bush and Putin used to walk arm in         arm in both capitals, with their wives giggling over a cup of coffee. Instead,     events reminiscent of the Cold War days have reappeared in the world even           though the trend has not yet gone as far as mutual open accusations of the Super Powers for the recent acts of terrorism and assassinations of statesmen on both          sides. Instead, both the Super Powers still prefer to accuse “Islamic terrorism” for   these outrages probably because it is more convenient. No matter what, it is     obvious that the Americans do suspect a Super Power finger in the             unprecedented resistance of the Iraqi people to the U.S.-led Coalition’s            occupation of their country and the Russians are not so daft as not to appreciate       the intentions to further disintegrate the relics of the Soviet Union with a   northward American move in the Caucasus starting from Georgia. In fact, Radio        Free Europe and Radio Liberty of the CIA against the Soviet system in the cold      war years have been reactivated from Prague since 3 April 2002 and these broadcasts run by the Chechen activist Aslan Dukayev are stirring up rebellions       against Moscow in upper Caucasus, including Chechnya. And where does Turkey       stand in this ever-toughening strife? Please see the article below for an attempt       for the answer.

With a team from the OIC (Organisation for Islamic Conference), Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul is currently in Moscow apparently to iron out certain discrepancies that appeared in Turkish-Russian relations recently, as well as the “State terrorism of Israel” and their concern was as serious developments as observing or ignoring, indeed violating treaty obligations and rights on the part of Turkey. Even though it is the cornerstone of Turkey’s traditional foreign policy to strictly observe its treaty obligations, the AKP Government has recently sidestepped it over the critical developments in the Caucasus, especially Georgia.

Bush’s the Greater Middle East policy compels Turkey to make a choice

While the attention of the world was focused on hot war areas such as Iraq, Palestine and Afghanistan, recent critical developments in the Caucasus, starting with Georgia have put Turkey in the position of taking a long-term and radical decision of observing its treaty obligations and rights or ignoring them to make dead letters out of certain international treaties which were the forerunners of the Treaty of Lausanne that founded the Turkish Republic.

The matter is so important that the success of Washington’s the Greater Middle East policy, by and large, depends on the decision Ankara will eventually take on this matter. Yet Turkey’s treaty obligations prevent Ankara from undertaking the roles that Washington is trying to cut out for the Erdogan Government in the implementation of this American policy stretching from Morocco to the western frontiers of China.

Washington-guided activities in the Caucasus are obvious. First President Shevardnadze has been toppled and replaced by the American educated Mikhail Saakashvili because the former had greatly slowed down in his pro-American policies in Georgia in recent years and tended to act like the last foreign minister of the defunct Soviet Union rather than the pro-American first president of Georgia after the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact system as from 1989.

One of the first steps the 37-year old new President of Georgia took was to try to end the autonomous republic statuses of the two regions in Georgia, starting with Ajaria, at the expense of putting Turkey in a position of not heeding its treaty obligations. Excluding South Ossetia, whose status has not been solved to this day, there are two autonomous republics in Georgia- Ajaria and Abkhazia. President Saakashvili was in Ankara on the day (20^th) FM Abdullah Gul was in Moscow both trying, in the reverse directions, to sort out this awful problem the new Georgian President has created for its two great neighbours, Turkey and the Russian Republic. At the Ankara talks, President Sezer did confirm to President Saakashvili Turkey’s respect of Georgia’s territorial integrity, but what went on about the special status of Muslims in Georgia remained as part of secret diplomacy.     

Evidently as a new and important step in the implementation of the Bush Administration’s Caucasus part of the Greater Middle East policy, President Saakashvili hastened, upon taking office in Tbilisi, to put his country in the lead, in bringing to life this new American policy advocated by especially the Cheney-Rumsfeld-Wolfowitz team ( turkpulse 116 – Will Turkey welcome the Greater Middle East Idea?) and it coincided with the reactivation of the Chechnya question after the assassination of pro-Moscow provincial President Kadyrov on 9 May at the victory parades of WW II.

The Ecevit Government’s opposition to this new American policy elaborated upon since 1995 was evident and its determination to enforce Turkey’s treaty obligations over Ajaria and Nachjivan deterred Washington from giving effect to the Caucasus part of the plan. Now that the AKP Government is more passive and determined not to annoy any big powers let alone a Super Power like the United States in this critical year for EU accession, Washington has finally decided to give it a boost.

Treaties of Moscow and Kars dating back to 1921 are definitely in the way

What will be the Erdogan Government’s reception to the new American initiative is still unknown, other than a careful silence, but it hardly has the luxury of being passive over this issue as it involves treaty obligations and the basic principles of the Turkish Republic set out by Ataturk.

The international treaty that founded Ataturk’s Turkish Republic was the Treaty of Lausanne signed on July 24^th, 1923, but the principles of this treaty were laid out back in 1921 with the Treaties of Moscow and Kars between the Ankara Government and the newly founded Soviet Republic, as well as the countries of the region such as Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Especially the Treaty of Moscow is so important that, under the farsighted leaderships of Ataturk and Lenin, it set up a system similar to today’s European integration 3-4 decades before Germany and France decided to take the steps for the EEC, the forerunner of today’s EU.

The Treaties of Moscow signed on March 16^th, 1921 and Kars signed six months later, contain the basic principles of today’s International Law such as the self-determination of the peoples, opposition to expansionist and occupation policies, implementation of the most favoured nation clause, abolishing of the Ottoman capitulations and even a prototype of the European Common Market with special tariff and trade facilities and exceptions between Turkey and the Soviet Republic as well as the South Caucasus countries, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Batumi and the Aras River basin being its centre. These two treaties cede the sovereignty of the Batumi region, i.e. today’s Ajaria, to Georgia and that of Naxcivan to Azerbaijan, but call for a protégé status for both these “autonomous regions” or republics by the joint Turkish and Russian guarantorship with the condition that this guarantorship “can never be transfered to a third country” (Article 3 of the Moscow Treaty.)  Article 9 of the Treaty stipulates that to prevent the interruption of mutual relations the two countries shall maintain and rapidly expand their railway and communication systems and allow free movement of persons and goods.

Even though these farsighted arrangements by the founders of the Turkish and Soviet Republics were delivered deadly blows during the Cold War years, especially under Stalin’s brutal dictatorship, they have since been given effect again. Today with the Turkish-Russian cooperation hydraulic energy investments are going through in the River Aras basin to the benefit of the entire northeastern Turkey and Southern Caucasus. Also a kind of a common market system is working between the two big neighbours with Turkish exports reaching Russia by trailers carried to Sochi by ferries to replace the so called “bavul ticareti,” the merchandise carried home in suitcases by Russian tourists in the early days of the post-Soviet era. It is the modern way of the common market system founded by the Treaty of Moscow via Batumi.

The reputable daily Milliyet (22) quotes FM Gul saying that at the audience to him last February, President Putin told him that he regarded the Turkish Parliament’s 12 March 2003 rebuff to the American aggression of Iraq as one of the most important developments in international relations of the last 10 years.

To this background, the Americans have recently launched an offensive in Ajaria with their trusted man President Saakashvili who is forcing Ankara to take a position about the USA’s Greater Middle East policy.

Significant American obstructions to Turkey’s closer relations with other Turks

Paradoxically, it is not Moscow that frowns upon Ankara’s efforts to tighten its ranks with the Turkic republics of Central Asia that broke away from Soviet Union only a decade ago, but it is Washington that does everything in its power to undermine this consolidation of the Turkic nations of the world.

And it is not the case only in Iraq, but a phenomena concerning the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia and elsewhere. After having declined, much to its current regret, to have Turkish soldiers in Iraq’s Turkmen areas with the influence of the Barzani and Talabani tribes, Washington is now doing its best to keep Turkish soldiers from the Uzbek Turks’ regions in Afghanistan. It was the case at the outset of the Afghan crisis before the war in Iraq and its is the case today. Systematically refused by Washington to send Turkish soldiers to help the reconstruction of the Turkish-origined people of Afghanistan within a NATO force, Ankara has now put down its foot about not joining this force unless the Takhar region inhabitted by the Uzbeks are assigned to itself.

On the other hand, true to the Russian Chief of the General Staff’s promise to his Turkish counterpart during General Huseyin Kivrikoglu’s term,  Moscow is doing its best to facilitate the Turkish soldiers’ deployment for peace and development purposes in several parts of the world from Afghanistan to the Balkans.

As for the latest developments in the Caucasus, it again concerns the ethnical structure of the areas adjacent to the Turkish frontier. According to the CIA’s Country Profile document which is an excellent publication except for the biased figures about some disputable affiliations such as ethnical groups and religion, the outbreak of the Georgian population religionwise is 65% Georgian orthodox, 11% Muslim, 10% Russian Orthodox, 8% Armenian Apostolic and 6% unknown.

The Ahiska (Meshketi) Turks scattered throughout the Soviet Union by Stalin starting on 2 November 1943 and 18 May 1944 are now seeking to return to Georgia, but Tbiliisi is reluctant to take the necessary steps about it, while Ukraine readmitted more than 300,000 to Crimea since Gorbachov permitted them to return home. The systematic Georgian policy of getting rid of the Muslim existence and influence in that country and the recent move against Ajaria go directly against the joint Turkish-Russian guarantorship agreed upon by Ataturk and Lenin in the Treaties of Moscow and Kars.  

It is expected that the Georgia-centred anti-Moscow activities in the Caucasus will not stop here and may go as far as forcing Ankara to take an open stance about the Moscow Treaty obligations. In fact, at the beginging of May FM Gul telephoned Georgian PM Zurab Zvania to advise him moderacy over the Ajaria developments and expressed the wish that the dimesions of disturbances in Batumi would not reach undesirable limits. He offered Turkey’s mediation which was politely declined. Instead President Saakashvili paid a State visit to Ankara with inconclusive results.

President Putin’s expected State visit to Ankara at the end of this year largely depends on Turkey’s final decisions on these matters. uras@ada.net.tr – May 23rd, 2004