PULSE of TURKEY No:103 ............................APRIL 25th, 1999
TOWARDS A LASTING POLITICAL STABILITY IN TURKEY
The third partner is quite a force to reckon with in all developments
Excluding the question marks about the MHP’s surprising victory, the outcome of the elections is quite a promising picture for political and economic stability in Turkey for the next five years. The 222 seats received by the DSP-ANAP team constitute a strong centre pole for the next Government in the new Parliament. Swap the positions of the MHP and ANAP, a political structure totally in line with Pulse’s expectations and pre-election forecasts appear. That prediction was that the DSP-ANAP partnership would govern Turkey in the new parliament, with a possible third party "serving as a spare tyre" for the State mechanism running the country.
The Turkish nation’s judgement, however, was clearly different from this publication’s rather provocative definition, and the third partner-to-be, the MHP, emerged much stronger than just a "spare tyre". It is almost as strong a force in Parliament today as the DSP and no one can ignore the MHP in any government business or the composition of parliament in the new term.
Paradoxically, this critically important position of the MHP may be a godsend for Turkey if the tripartite coalition works as harmoniously in the period ahead as it did between Ecevit and Yilmaz in the previous period. Such a harmonious team comprising Ecevit-Bahceli-Yilmaz would enable Turkey to amend the Constitution by a civilian administration for the first time in its history, excluding the 17 amendments passed in 1995, but not fully enforced. It was because the political parties could never pass through Parliament the necessary legal changes in the laws and decrees in accordance with the new rules of the Constitution. Now with over 350 members, the tripartite coalition can very comfortably pass these implementation bills as well as enact new constitutional amendments that are needed for Turkey’s adaptation to the new world that is shaping up on the eve of the new century. That, for its part, would make Turkey a regional superpower, as reputable international media have begun to forecast.
The final distribution of seats was very appropriate and of a nature to consolidate harmony in the new Parliament. For instance, at the counting of votes at the outset the MHP seemed to have more seats than the DSP even though the latter had received more votes. The same was the case between ANAP and the DYP. They appeared to have 85 and 90 seats, respectively, for a long time.
This distorted picture of the composition of the new parliament was due to the fact that the small constituencies of the East were counted quickly and produced a result against the DSP-ANAP team. However, when the election returns of big cities were counted the DSP’s and ANAP’s positions in Parliament improved at the last minute and rectified this distorted balance of less seats for more votes. Otherwise, the MHP could well appear to have been the first party, and consequently claim the PM’s position.
Also, the single seat ANAP received above the DYP has both saved it from being the smallest party in Parliament and also gained the Deputy Speaker’s seat for ANAP. Under established rules, the Speaker will be from the biggest party in Parliament, the DSP, and his three deputies from the other three biggest, the MHP, FP and ANAP. It deprives the DYP from chairing over the new Parliament’s sessions and makes the next ruling power stronger at the debates.
Ozkan and Sokmenoglu iron out differences for coalition
Pending the final assignment by President Demirel of the new Prime Minister who is sure to be Bulent Ecevit, the DSP and MHP are making all the preparations to smooth out their differences for the new coalition. Ecevit’s right-hand man, Husamettin Ozkan, and Devlet Bahceli’s trusted man, Murat Sokmenoglu, are running these activities. Mesut Yilmaz and Bulent Ecevit have already worked out their program for the next Government and ANAP rulers are informed of the developments when critical points are reached at the Ozkan-Sokmenoglu talks.
Thanks to this harmonious work, the structure of the next Ecevit Government has begun to appear even before the President designated the new Prime Minister. Devlet Bahceli and Mesut Yilmaz will be deputy Prime Ministers in charge of internal affairs and the economy. Mesut Yilmaz’s chief advisor, Mehmet Ali Irtemcelik (ANAP-Istanbul) may be the Foreign Minister as a former senior career diplomat. It would both be an assurance for the continuation of Turkey’s foreign policy and also allay the fears of the West that the new Government may have different policies especially about relations with the European Union and Iraq. ANAP may also have a say in the formation of the economy and especially in regulating relations with international finance quarters.
In return, the MHP may get the Ministries of Defence, Energy, Culture and Health, in addition to certain State Minister positions. This would keep the MHP away from the Ministries of the Interior, Education and Justice and forestall the bad examples of the past about infiltration of extremist nationalist militants in the police, educational and judicial systems. The current Ecevit Government has 25 ministers in the Cabinet. The next one is expected to have over 30 with several State Ministers.
The main task of the new Government will be to carry out the economic and social reforms in accordance with the talks that have already been held with the IMF about changes in Turkey’s banking system, social security and agricultural subsidies.
The DSP and ANAP are already, by and large, in agreement with these reforms and the MHP’s participation in the coalition is not expected to make any big differences to these bills that were elaborated upon, but not passed by the previous Parliament.
The Opposition in the post-election period
While the three prospective coalition parties are completing their preparations for the next government, the FP is calmly standing by and watching developments. Or rather, it is preparing for its first national convention before the end of this year and it may give way to clashes between the "aksaclilar" (the grey haired), the veterans led by Chairman Recai Kutan and the "yenilikciler" (reformists) who object to Necmettin Erbakan’s remote control of the party. This second group includes Abdullah Gul, Bulent Arinc and Melih Gokcek, and is in touch with its future leader, the former Mayor of Istanbul, Tayyip Erdogan who is in prison under the controversial Article 312 of the Penal Code. There may be clashes at the party congresses ahead between these two groups, but Erbakan supported Recai Kutan is expected to carry the day as a moderate leader, rather than a splintering in the party, at least at this stage.
As for the second opposition party of the new parliament, the DYP, it is undergoing the pains and helplessness of terrible management based on the whims of its chairperson, Tansu Ciller. She is desperately working on a number of arrangements to bring forward another Government formula where her party will be indispensable.
One of these formulas is a DYP-ANAP co-operation, if not merger, to have the biggest group, that of the "centre right," in Parliament with 171 seats. Under this arrangement, Ciller will be the Prime Minister and Mesut Yilmaz the President in May 2000.
Tansu Ciller’s other formula is "the third MC" with Devlet Bahceli the Prime Minister of a coalition of all the parties barring the DSP. The "Milliyetci Cephe" (the Nationalist Front) was the coalition of four right-wing parties under PM Suleyman Demirel in the seventies. This "Front" which included, as its deputy Prime Ministers, Necmettin Erbakan and Alpaslan Turkes, was the main reason for Turkey’s ending up in the third military take-over on September 12th, 1980. Now Tansu Ciller is unwisely trying to revive this "Front" and form the "third MC".
Luckily neither Mesut Yilmaz nor Devlet Bahceli take Ciller’s proposals seriously and prefer co-operating with reliable politician, Bulent Ecevit, no matter how attractive the DYP makes its proposals. Yilmaz has already suffered greatly from appearing to indulge in horsetrading with Tansu Ciller by mutually shelving the parliamentary investigation reports. The people have put Mesut Yilmaz in the same basket with Tansu Ciller about corruption charges and it was instrumental in ANAP’s poor election performance. Insiders such as Bulent Ecevit know that Mesut Yilmaz was innocent in the whole affair, but the people have not yet clearly understood the difference between Yilmaz and Ciller as far as corruption goes.
Now the tripartite coalition will carry out what Ciller and Yilmaz agreed upon in mutually saving one another from the Supreme Court – the amendment of Article 83 of the Constitution concerning parliamentary immunity. According to this ANAP-DYP agreement, which was not honoured by Tansu Ciller before the elections, parliamentary immunity will only be restricted to public statements from the parliamentary podium, but charges of corruption and ordinary crimes will be subject to judicial supervision and action without inviolability. It is apparent that Mesut Yilmaz needs such judicial supervision about his contacts with and fights against organised crime and the Mafia before he can go any further in his political career. Now that he is no longer the Prime Minister he does not need to worry about losing his seat by going to the Supreme Court, if necessary.
As for the third biggest opposition party of the new era, the CHP, Deniz Baykal has finally tendered his resignation under the heavy pressure of the people and there will be a national convention within a month. But Baykal’s resignation was far from leaving politics after a hollow defeat, but a political manoeuvre to retain his seat as the party chairman. That is why Baykal’s rivals in the party are insisting that it is not enough for him to resign, but the entire central management should be replaced and the convention should be held by an impartial team.
Baykal’s resignation brought more conflict and upheavals to the CHP than peace. A split in the party seems inevitable if Baykal is to be re-elected the chairman.
In short, the future seems bleak for the CHP and the DYP and their leaders unless they successfully carry out internal surgeries and get rid of their chairpersons. As a strange coincidence, the fates of these two party leaders were interrelated at the last elections. The DYP received 92,374 votes (5.74%) and only one seat from the third constituency of Istanbul, while the CHP received 146,887 votes (9.12%) and two seats. If the CHP had not lost these two seats because it remained below the 10% national threshold, Tansu Ciller would not have entered Parliament today.
We will see what fate providence has in store for these two unpopular leaders in the days to follow. uras@ada.net.tr, April 25th, 1999