TIME FOR REALISM AND SOLUTION IN CYPRUS

 

         With the decisive rebuff  of the Greek Cypriots at the 24 April referenda on the          Annan plan, the hope of having a fair and lasting solution to the four-decade        old Cyprus crisis within that plan has been dashed for good. The reason is clearly       a lack of realism in laying the foundations of this building by the drafters of      this plan, i.e. the Anglo-Americans. For what is this “lack of realism”    and the           remedy for it please read the article below.

There is a long standing joke in the world which I first heard 50 years ago from an American soldier with whom I was working as an interpreter while studying in the Faculty of Political Science. “Who is more deceitful than a Greek?” The answer – “Two Greeks.”

Verheugen’s plight ahead with “two Greeks” after 1 May 

With an outspoken accusation a couple of days before the 24 April referenda on the Annan plan that “The Greeks have deceived me about Cyprus and the EU accession,” the EU commissioner for expansion, Gunther Verheugen, is now preparing to deal with two Greeks in a week when the Greek Cypriots become a full member of the European integration as the “Republic of Cyprus” with a claim to representing the whole of the island.

It is no longer a joke either. Verheugen has a long list of how he was deceived by the Greeks which publicly brought him at dagger ends with one of the parties to the Cyprus problem, President Denktas who, as a life long victim, was bent on not to allow these deceptions to determine the future of his country, the TRNC.

To cut a long story short, in according the Greek Cypriots candidate status for accession, Verhaugen and the drafters of the Annan plan sidestepped the good old principle of the European integration that a country in dispute with its neighbours cannot become a full member of the EU. But in the course of the Annan plan process, they used that principle against Turkey’s accession, with the end in view of extracting additional concessions from the Turkish side in the Greeks’ favour. Denktas constantly brought up this contradiction on the part of the EU by arguing why the Cyprus problem should be a stumbling block for the Turkish accession while it was no hindrance on the Greek Cypriots’ full membership even if they are the party which may be rejecting the Annan plan.

This “farfetched assumption” for Verheugen and other Annan plan advocates at the outset is today facing them as a shocking reality now that the Greeks proved to the world that the Turks are not good at publicity or even in explaining the truth about or fallacies against themselves, but “they are at their best when problems are the biggest”.

Four Greek fallacies and the truth about Cyprus

The world and, above all, the Greeks themselves believed four main fallacies about the Cyprus problem by dismissing the gross injustices the Greek majority meted out to the Turks when they lived in small enclaves until the Turkish military intervention in July 1974. These fallacies are:

1)     The Turkish “occupation forces” are the only power keeping the Turkish Cypriots together and the TRNC going. The moment “this aggressive force” disappears from the island the Cyprus problem will have been solved.

2)     The mainland Turks will then have to go back to Turkey.

3)     All the Greeks will return to their homes they had in the north before the 1974 military intervention.

4)     The Turkish Cypriots “who now live in utter poverty” will emigrate from the island to work in developed Europe probably after having lived under Greek rule as a minority for a while.

The biggest mistake in this train of thought was that it was totally based on gross exaggerations and misconceptions. In the course of its 30 years of existence on the island the Turkish forces did nothing else but bring calm, peace and security to the island. Far from resorting to the methods of Israel such as constantly carving up the Arab lands in Palestine through their settlers and protecting them with mighty military forces, the Turkish forces in Cyprus did not even occupy the beautiful seaside houses and lands under their control. They have been keeping Varosha untouched for its Greek owners to return to upon final solution.

Likewise, the truth about the “invasion of the North by the mainland Turks” is that the Greeks and the western forces behind them have followed a policy of inducing, indeed forcing, the Turkish Cypriots to emigrate from the island with a ruthless economic embargo. Today there are about 200,000 Turks on the island, including the 40-45 thousand strong mainland Turks, but 120,000 Turkish Cypriots live in the UK and a few times more of them in Turkey, Europe and the former British dominions.

On April 23^rd, 2003 the Denktas Administration shocked the Greeks by opening up the gates on the Green line. The Greeks themselves saw with their own eyes that the Turks’ in the North had set up a quite effective and prosperous democratic republic. Far from the Turkish Cypriot community being disintegrated at the opening up of the gates, the Greeks themselves were lured by the reasonable prices and the quality of the goods in the North. An exodus of Turkish goods began from the north to the south instead of the people, much to the Greek Cypriot Administration’s chagrin. They immediately banned these imports from the North and enforced bans on the Greeks about staying in the hotels in the North. This was the freedom of movement, freedom of trade and freedom to travel of the Greek Administration and no one told them that these restrictions are diametrically opposed to the EU rules behind what the Greeks were trying to hide themselves.

What is next in Cyprus?

Now that 97% of the Greek voters religiously attended the 24 April referendum, 76% of whom only to voice a categorical “Oxi” (No) to the Annan plan, the possibility of a second referendum in six months has also been dashed off along with the plan itself. So what is the remedy?

A vague statement of relaxing the embargo on the Turkish Cypriots was not late arriving from Washington even before the official results of the referenda were announced, but it would be naïve to expect anything much from the United States against the Greeks or Israel in a presidential election year in that country. It means nothing drastic should be expected from the United States before November, but it does not mean that the most valuable 4-5 months ahead will be lost for Turkey in its efforts to get a date for accession negotiations with the EU before the end of the  year. The Erdogan Government’s preparations have been completed to amend ten articles of the constitution in May in order to comply with the Copenhagen criteria. The parliamentary arithmetic and the political atmosphere are suitable for the AKP rule to pass these amendments and other alterations to satisfy the EU and the United States.

The question in this regard is whether the Hellenism factor will be a problem for Turkey, now that there are two Greeks in the EU to oppose the Turkish accession. The promise from Athens that they will not obstruct the Turkish accession is definitely the last thing that a Turk should rely on. Whether or not Hellenism, with one or two Greeks within the EU, can prevent the Turkish accession is another story, especially given the appreciation of the Cyprus realities in the world after the 24 April experience.  

Meanwhile, the Cyprus problem may mark time with some second rate facilities in favour of the Turkish Cypriots such as easing the economic embargo and even the recognition of the TRNC by certain countries like Azerbaijan.

Also a power struggle may take place within the TRNC between President Denktas and PM Mehmet Ali Talat. There is already talk of getting rid of the two Denktas’s in the political life of Cyprus. Such a power struggle may also embroil Turkey if the AKP rule falls into the pitfall of external forces to clash with Denktas. The Disinformation Mechanism in the Turkish media has already given the signs of launching such a campaign against Denktas, but while the majority of Turkey’s influential forces do not fall into Denktas’s trap about supporting certain extremist moves on his part, they are well aware of the healthy role he has been playing in the entire Cyprus problem.

Besides, the Greeks themselves provided Denktas with the best opportunities that justify his extreme suspicion of the Greeks. He was saying that the Annan plan’s complicated mechanism would never work in the United Republic of Cyprus and an overwhelming majority of the Greeks joined hands with him. Furthermore, Denktas had a number of good reasons for rejecting the Annan plan due to his incurable suspicion of the Greeks, but the Greek Majority that rejected the Annan plan put forward no other reason than they do not want to live with the Turks.

Turkey’s alternative to the Annan plan remains to be the only way out

Under these conditions, there remains only one alternative to the dead letter called the Annan plan and that is the preparations made by the Turkish side for an alternative to the unacceptable first Annan plan.

It is based on creating an economic union between Turkey and the TRNC. Some call it a kind of a Turkish common market. Denktas describes it as the application of the British Commonwealth to the Turkish side of Cyprus. According to this plan which has already covered quite some distance in case the Annan plan did not progress to its acceptable limits of the fourth or the fifth Annan plan, the economic integration of the two Turkish States will continue till they will join the EU as full members together. Within the EU the two Cypriot republics may make a lose union or not, according to the Greeks’ choice.

This plan involves giant economic projects such as extending water to the island from Turkey with a pipeline under the surface of the sea, making the Ercan airport a big centre to regulate flights between Europe and Asia, between the West and the East, turning south eastern coasts of Turkey into an energy terminal for shipment to Europe and the West of the Middle East, Caspian and Russian oil and natural gas.

Naturally the cooperation with Turkey of the United States, the EU and Russia is a must in bringing these ambitious projects to life. Paradoxically, the Greek Cypriot rebut of 24 April will be the biggest driving force in this regard, by enlightening the world about the realities of the two Greeks. uras@ada.net.tr – April 26^th, 2004