SILENT REVOLUTION IN TURKEY FOR EU ACCESSION

The mass resignations from the DSP with the possibility of putting an end to the |tripartite Ecevit coalition may paradoxically eliminate the bottleneck, the MHP hurdle, for the EU accession. The developments brought Ecevit and Bahceli closer, but Mesut Yilmaz’s pro-EU accession is gaining momentum. The possible way out of the current political crisis is an early election government under, it does not matter whom, with a single item on its agenda – the bills to conform to the Copenhagen criteria. Meantime Turkey has already covered a long way in conforming to the EU rules in all fields. The secretary general of the EU affairs, Ambassador Volkan Vural says a silent revolution has been achieved on the way to EU accession in the past 15 months and Turkey has already passed the point of no return.

It is yet too early to make a sound and unbiased assessment of Turkish politics in the wake of Husamettin Ozkan’s resignation from the government and the DSP, as vitally important events are unrolling rather fast. Paradoxically, past experience in Turkish politics over similar splintering incidents is hardly an indicator for future developments because of a historic milestone Turkey is currently facing about the EU accession.

EU accession will shape future developments

The unique aspect of this splintering event, which is not unfamiliar in Turkish politics, is that it is taking place during the most critical few months that will determine the nation’s vitally important long-term orientation - the accession to the EU. There are important duties incumbent on Turkey to fulfil about conforming to the Copenhagen criteria and Maastricht norms and standards if it will get the green light for the accession at the Copenhagen summit in December. The deadline for it is October 13^th  2002, the date when Turkey’s progress report will be finalised and announced by the EU.

Have the political events that are rapidly unrolling after Ozkan’s resignation on Monday (8^th) made Turkey ‘s EU plans fall through with the inevitable early elections and possible downfall of the current Ecevit Government? The following are the answers to these exceedingly important questions?

The future of the current Ecevit Government is more than precarious, it is at the brink and the MHP has already announced that its chairman Devlet Bahceli should be designated prime minister to form the new government as the biggest in Parliament if the tripartite coalition under Ecevit disappears. Yet the MHP is well aware of the fact that it stands no chance of leading a coalition even for a short period for early elections, because the key issue will be the EU accession and the party has put itself into the undesirable position of being the only main political force in the way of this accession.

Deputy PM Mesut Yilmaz says that these developments for the new government is nothing new or due to Ozkan’s resignation, but they started on June 7^th at the Cankaya summit when Bahceli made it apparent that he would stand in the way of Turkey’s conforming to the Copenhagen criteria about abolishing the death penalty and broadcasts and training in the mother tongue, seeking ways of passing over the MHP hurdle with this government if possible, but it was proving to be more difficult each day. So, in a way, the disintegration of the tripartite coalition did not hamper Turkey’s plans for the EU accession, but paradoxically facilitated it in many ways.

ANAP proposes to support the new election government whether or not it joins it as long as it pledges to pass the necessary bills for the EU accession. Other than the MHP all the rest of Parliament feels the same way. In that respect, there is no splintering between Ecevit and Ozkan. The two religious parties, AKP and the SP, have promised at the Cankaya summit to support the bills needed for EU accession. The DYP has also come round that point, though Tansu Ciller boycotted the summit. ANAP is the driving force behind the accession any way. So there is only the MHP in the way and even that Party declares not to be against the EU membership. 

Political parties’ election chances

The nation being keen on EU accession in order to share Europe’s wealth as soon as possible, ANAP stands a high chance in the forthcoming elections. The only by-election that was held in recent years proves it. In a small town of Izmir, ANAP won the mayoral election three months ago though it was the CHP and the DYP’s stronghold. It was too small an election to be of a real significance, but it may well prove be a mini-referendum for ANAP’s EU drive.

The DSP will definitely get a blow in the election from Ecevit’s poor health and the Ozkan group’s splintering but the Ecevit Government’s performance in the last three years has been really impressive especially in placing Turkey on the path of no return for the EU accession. But the people most probably will remember the two economic crises of November 2000 and February 2001 and their still ongoing hardships and the DSP will foot the bill . Still it is unlikely that the DSP will fall below the 10% threshold at the elections as some claim.  Will Ecevit be in the reign in the DSP or have a young successor as the party chairman, remains to be seen. The latter is most probably the case.

AKP and SP are in trouble if the general elections are to be held this year, because the leaders of both parties. Tayyip Erdogan and Necmettin Erbakan have political restrictions to stand for the elections. Erbakan’s 5-year term end in February and Erdogan’s is even more in the balance. That is why both these parties prefer 2003 for the early elections, rather than the MHP’s surprise attack date of November 2002. Mesut Yilmaz also dismisses November 2002 and says either the elections should be held next year, preferable in autumn 2003 or at the earliest date legally possible, in September. In both cases Turkey will not lose the valuable time for adjustments to EU accession. The first will enable the new government to pass the EU legislation and then the election can be held any day. Failing to do that elections in September will be a kind of a referendum for the EU accession and the new government after the elections can either dismiss the accession or hurry it through for October 13^th and the Copenhagen summit in December, according to the nation’s will.

Most probably, Mesut Yilmaz’s reasoning will carry the day with the support of all the political parties, including the budding Ozkan group, except for the MHP.

Like the DSP in trouble with the splintering and its prospective impact on the party at the forthcoming elections, Tansu Ciller’s DYP is facing a similar ordeal with its splintering group of the last parliamentary term, the DTP, heading for elections with new dynamism under its young diplomat chairman Mehmet Ali Bayar and the backing up of the business world, President Demirel and the intellectuals.

The elections will be held with three new splintering parties – the latest one being the Ozkan group, an earlier one being Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP and still an earlier one left from the last term of Parliament, the DTP, not to count Sema Piskinsut’s party that is virtually non-existent. What chance of success do they have in the early elections ahead? If the past experience is any indicator, not much to say the least, despite the media claim that makes Tayyip Erdogan out to be the next PM of Turkey after the elections. The claim is only an indicator of the extent of the hold of the American disinformation mechanism on the Turkish media, rather than the strength of Erdogan or his party, as time will show.

The election campaign ahead will provide the ruling parties with the opportunity to broadcast over the TV their achievements about adopting Turkey to the new world with its steps to settle the new rules of  globalisation. A new OECD publication, “Regulatory Reform in Turkey” has very interesting information about Turkey’s transformations into the EU. The book translated into Turkish with Pulse editor Vedat Uras’s speed and accuracy may be published by the Prime Minister’s Office before long, to reveal the extend of the regulatory reform that has been going on in Turkey. It will be a real eye-opener for most people in Turkey about the achievements for this reform under the present Ecevit Government if only they can make good publicity on these excitable days. uras@ada.net.tr   -  July 9^th, 2002