TURKPULSE No:104
IRAQ - HEADING TO BE AN UNGOVERNABLE COUNTRY?
TURKPULSE No:104
IRAQ - HEADING TO BE AN UNGOVERNABLE COUNTRY?
With the assassination of Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim in Najaf on Friday (29th) along with more than 120 other worshippers, the Iraq problem is clearly becoming insoluble, dashing all hopes of national unity in that war torn oil-rich country. This, for its part, goes totally against the basic principles of Turkish diplomacy which aspired to have a good neighbour with strong Turkman influence in a united, stable and democratic Iraq. Paradoxically it was not a development that further deterred Turkish force deployment there despite the fact that the people and the government have begun to question why they should throw their soldiers into an inextinguishable hell – “to replace American soldiers there with Turkish ones?” Under these conditions, the only remaining slim hope is that the Ayatollah’s assassination will not be the beginning of an inter-communal civil war in Iraq. Another slim, but a bit more likely chance is sending the Turkish forces to Iraq as a peacekeeping and economic recovery force that ostensibly dissociates itself from the American occupation forces, but in fact closely cooperates with it for mutual benefits as well as for the benefit of the entire region. About the Turkish diplomacy’s chances and dilemmas in this regard please see the article below.
TURKPULSE No:105
WHERE DOES
TURKEY STAND AT THE EU DOORSTEP?
Before the 1 March rebuff, President Bush reportedly told the then Turkish Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis in answer to his query about what the EU would say to Turkey’s joining the war against Iraq, “What EU? I split it into three – the French-German front, the majority around the UK and the former Soviet Bloc countries in the EU today like Poland. The majority is in the anti-Iraq Coalition.” These words which were seemingly true at that time have totally lost their validity within the 8-9 months that have since gone by. Time has proved that rather than Spain and the Spanish people, it was PM Aznar, rather than Italy and the Italian people it was PM Berlisconi who were supporting the Anti-Iraq Coalition led by President Bush’s hardliners. And unrolling events have proved that neither this backing nor that of the former Soviet Bloc ones are really reliable support for the American occupation forces to lean against in Iraq. Given the millions of Brits who joined the antiwar demonstrations in London and other cities, it is even the case for the UK, but its conservative opposition is even less in tune with the wishes of the majority of the British people than PM Blair is and that fact provides President Bush the biggest boost in its Baghdad campaign. And where does Turkey stand in this jungle of unpredictable diplomatic riddles? Please read the article below for an attempt to analyse facts.
TURKPULSE No:106
SEARCHING
FOR
THE LESSER OF TWO EVILS IN IRAQ
Chief, TGS, General Hilmi Ozkok’s definition of the first voting in Parliament about joining the United States in war against Iraq still holds good. As General Ozkok said about the 1 March rebuff to the United States, “the choice for Turkey was not between the good and the bad, but between the bad and the worse.” Indeed, call it “the lesser of two evils” as the good old English expression goes or the American equivalent “catch 22,” for Turkey it is still “the stick both ends covered with sh..” as the more expressive, but more vulgar Turkish saying goes. Ankara is still undecided about which end of the stick to hold in regard to American pressure to send a Turkish division to Iraq. The Government rightly inclines to favour force deployment in Iraq after taking several measures to avoid appearing as a part of the American occupation forces, but cannot risk it on the eve of the AKP’s national convention in mid-October, though PM Tayyip Erdogan’s chairmanship is not at risk. Please see the article below about what is in store for Turkish rulers in this thorny issue.