PM ERDOGAN’S WASHINGTON VISIT AT CRITICAL CROSSROADS

 

PM Tayyip Erdogan’s first official visit to Washington on January 28^th is not taking place under ideal conditions or in high expectations, but rather at the beginning of 2004 which promises to be a critical year for Turkey, not only in foreign policy, but also in the economy. Given the unexpected shock to Washington by the Turkish Parliament’s 1 March rebuff on the eve of the Iraq war, the feeling may be reciprocal, but Ankara has a long list of disappointing events and developments which have evoked in Turkey great suspicion of the Americans’ future intentions on matters of vital importance to Ankara. Needless to say, Kirkuk and Cyprus top the list of these issues, but it goes much deeper than that. For a rundown of these events and the expectations for the future please see the article below.

The tradition in Turkish-American relations is to put the weight of the Turkish military in favour of the Americans before a Turkish statesman pays a visit to Washington at a critical point of mutual relations, especially after a new government following general elections, because the Turkish commanders have always been staunch supporters of NATO and cooperation with the United States.

Long hanging-fire helicopter project goes to Russia

It is hardly the case, however, on the eve of PM Erdogan’s forthcoming visit to Washington in less than a month. The high-level Turkish-American Defence Group meeting did take place in Washington in November, but the outcome was not so smooth especially when the Americans declined to extend defence industry technologies to Turkey. As a detailed list of disenchanting events and disappointing developments had long been looming over mutual relations particularly in the military field, the TGS finally put an end to an important defence industry issue which had  been hanging fire for nearly a decade because of the Americans’ incessant procrastinations.

The reputable daily Milliyet (23^rd) reports under the heading, “Russians win the helicopter race”:

“The Under Secretariat of the Defence Industry (SSM) has made up its mind about the attack-tactical-reconnaissance helicopter project that had been put into force back in 1995 by the Turkish Armed Forces with great importance attached to it. The $300 million lower cost was instrumental in the SSM’s decision in favour of the Russian-Israeli Kamov helicopters instead of the American King Cobras.

“On 15 December, the SSM gave a briefing to General Ilter Basbug, the Deputy Chief, TGS, about the attack-tactical helicopter project and stressed that there was a $300 million gap between the costs of the two helicopters. High priority in the Turkish Armed Forces’ preferences centred around manufacturing the helicopters in Turkey with technology transfer from abroad and especially manufacturing the task computers at home so that the resource codes could be kept as a national secret.

“Mindful of these prerequisites of the Turkish side about this project which will be totally financed by the Defence Industry Fund, the American company put up its price from $2 billion to $3.5 billion. At the briefing to General Basbug, the SSM pointed out the fact that the American side was constantly raising its price and difficulties about technology transfer were still going on.

“At the tenders, the American King Cobra AH-IZ helicopters were competing with the Russian Ka-50-2 (Erdogan) helicopters.”      

Somehow the Americans have always paid great importance to preventing Turkey for decades from having any deals with the Russians on helicopter purchases or manufacturing, going back to the USSR times with the claim that this sector makes a country dependent on the supplier with compulsion of frequent and high rates of spare parts imports. Now that Ankara has made up its mind against the American pressure, PM Erdogan’s forthcoming visit will show what new arguments the United States will put forward on this issue this time.

Important and significant as it is, the helicopter manufacture is only a small issue within the overall Turkish-American relations, especially today where the world is standing at an important crossroads over international questions of direct interest to Turkey, such as the future of Iraq, the Cyprus problem, EU accession and the consequences of Turkey’s Eurasian policy.

Besides there are other important questions in the military field. NATO has last week announced after nine years of enquiry in the former Yugoslavia that the claims of high radiation from  depleted uranium bombs were not true. It concerns the Americans’ exploding these bombs near Sarajevo against the Serbs in 1995. The cancer rate in this area has been increased by four-fold now, but a NATO enquiry dismissed the claims of any links between the American depleted uranium bombs and these high rate of cancer cases.

Turkey, however, knows without any shade of doubt that NATO’s disclaim is not correct and that the radiation rate in the Iraqi arms destroyed by the American depleted bombs 8-9 months ago do contain radiation 1000 times more than the internationally accepted radiation rates. That was why Turkey abruptly stopped importing scrap iron from Iraq though it badly needs the special steel of the destroyed Iraqi guns and tanks. It is a case impossible for the Americans to dismiss as conspiracy theory because these destroyed Iraqi military equipment and guns are there to stay dispersing radiation to everyone including the American soldiers in Iraq. Already more than 600 American soldiers have reportedly been hit by radiation and are now undergoing cancer treatment.  Washington attempted to get rid of this scourge by sending these arms to Turkey as scrap, but with a lucky stroke Turkish authorities found out the truth and stopped scrap arms imports from Iraq along with other items. Today, anyone can go and measure the radiation rates in these destroyed Iraqi weapons, but the superpower influence of the United States is deterring everyone, including Turkey, from making an international case out of it by campaigning against this criminal act on the part of the Bush Administration.

Obvious issues between Turkey and the United States

In the economic field, the issues that stick out the most in mutual relations are the $8.5 billion American loan to Turkey and the QIZ (Qualified Industrial Zones). Turkey refuses to receive $8,5 billion loans as long they are linked to the condition of no Turkish military action in northern Iraq. The Erdogan Government, which accepted such a provision in the relevant agreement because of its lack of experience, cannot possibly get this agreement ratified by either Parliament or the Council of Ministers. That is why it refrains from receiving this soft loan even though the Americans say they are ready to disburse it. To solve this problem for PM Tayyip Erdogan, Washington is now planning to declare that Ankara made no commitments about its military actions in Iraq in concluding this agreement.

Another economic issue is according QIZ facilities to Turkey and the Bush Administration is expected to bring it up with Congress. What is important for Turkey in this regard is including the clothing and textile industries in QIZ arrangements and it does not seem possible. American expectations of Turkey in the economic field concern solving the problems of certain American energy investments here by continuing with their high electricity prices.

These economic issues may not cause too much of a problem during the forthcoming Washington talks. More important for Turkey are the American stances on international issues like Kirkuk, Cyprus and the EU accession.  

On Cyprus, Ankara will put forward a plan for modifications of the Annan plan with the intention of solving the problem by 1 May. The American stance about it is important, but not vital as a middle course is sure to be found in the end due to joint US-EU efforts and Turkey’s determination to be a part of European integration with the EU’s vital decision for negotiations by the end of this year.

A more thorny international issue for Turkey is northern Iraq with special emphasis on the status of Kirkuk. The Kurds led by Barzani and Talabani have put forward new draft constitutions to make Iraq a federal state between the Arabs and Kurds, totally ignoring the Turkmans. The American draft announced on 15 November 2003, on the other hand, is based on making a kind of a federal State in Iraq on the basis of its present 18 administrative regions. This American proposal suits Turkey better and eases its strong objection to a federal State. This objection has already gone as far as an NSC resolution to the effect that it can be casus belli  if the federation in Iraq will be based on two racial federated States by the Arabs and the Kurds.

Turkey points out that the latest Kurdish initiatives and plans are against the Ankara declaration of 19 March 2003 signed by both the Kurds and all the Iraqi opposition groups to Saddam, as well as by Turkey and the United States a day before President Bush started the war on Iraq. Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul declared last week that the Kurdish plans for Kirkuk and a racial federation in Iraq is “very dangerous”. The forthcoming Erdogan visit to Washington will show what the American policy will eventually be on the Kirkuk issue. Insiders in Ankara give the Americans more credit for realism and wisdom than preferring the Peshmeges to the Turkish Armed Forces.

Eurasian cooperation makes headlong progress despite US undermining        

The Americans seem to be sincere in their wish to see Turkey in the EU as a full member, apparently because otherwise Turkey’s Eurasia cooperation plans will make headlong progress. Indeed, it seems that this issue will be the topic of utmost importance at the forthcoming Washington talks. That is why the Americans may wish to solve international questions like Cyprus and Kirkuk in a way to satisfy Ankara so that it can receive Turkey’s support or at least understanding in its plans for Iran, the Caucasus and central Asia in general. Will this American tactic work at Erdogan’s Washington talks? Given the existing state of affairs it should not be taken for granted because the present pro-Islamic Turkish Government has plans for giving a boost to the Eurasian cooperation with Moscow and Tehran as the core of this cooperation.

Last week’s earthquake which claimed 30-40 thousand lives in Iran gave Turkey a golden opportunity in this policy. The immediate mobilisation of Turkey’s aid resources was very well received by the Iranian people and rulers. As usual Washington tried to undermine this cooperation by telling Ankara that it would not be right for PM Erdogan to go to Tehran on the eve of his Washington visit. So Turkey postponed for the third time PM Erdogan’s visit to Tenran along with impressive aid materials from Turkey. The arrangements for Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul to carry out the Prime Minister’s duty were also undermined by the same Super Power efforts and in the end Deputy PM Mehmet Ali Sahin went to Tehran. Now a Turkish town of earthquake tents, mobile hospitals and big mobile kitchens in the earthquake stricken Iranian town of Bam are busy trying to ease fellow Muslim victims’ sufferings much to the Iranian and Islamic world’s surprise and appreciation.

President Assad’s imminent State visit to Turkey will be another disappointment for Washington. The Turkish people threw off the stress of the outgoing year’s hard work with hearty laugher on new year’s day. A columnist of the mass circulation daily Milliyet wrote that the world was now praying that the Bush team would “not take freedom and democracy to Iran or Syria in 2004”.   

Amidst these shocks and sufferings of last year, Turkish-Russian cooperation did make headlong progress in a way to pave the way for President Putin’s State visit to Turkey before long. Pulse will dwell on this very important topic in a future article.

EU developments are pushing the Washington visit to the background

While the Washington dominated Turkish media wonders if the 28 January visit to the United States will yield productive results in Turkish-American relations to justify a State visit to Ankara by President Bush before the NATO summit in Istanbul on 25-26 June, diplomatic developments are unrolling in a way to push the one time all important Turkish-American relations to second, even third rate importance for Turkey after EU and Eurasian cooperation.       

On 15 January, the President of the EU Commission,  Romano Prodi, along with his Commissioner for Expansion, Gunter Verheugen, will pay an official visit to Turkey. On 21-22 January the German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer will be in Ankara to give finishing touches to the preparations for Chancellor Gerhard Schroder’s official visit to Turkey a month later. On 23 February Schroder will hold a large meeting with Turkish businessmen in Istanbul and stunning results are expected from that meeting for massive German and European investments in Turkey. France and other members of the EU’s driving force countries are expected to give a push to these efforts in winning Turkey over to their side, as the latest development over the new European constitution have hardened the split in the European integration between the first speed countries led by France and Germany and the UK leading Spain, Poland and the newcomers for cutting down the first group’s speed in integration. In this two-speed EU, European integration enthusiasts will find a staunch and strong ally in Turkey if they prevail in overcoming their initial fears that Turkey may be another American Trojan Horse in the EU after the UK. The Iraq war events of last year were a great eye opener for the “Old Europe” about Turkey in this regard.

At the EU summit on 18-19 June when Ireland hands over the EU presidency to the Netherlands, the first important decision will be taken about Turkey’s accession and it will constitute the backbone of the Progress Report that will be published by the EU Commission on 12 October. The final decision will be taken on Turkish accession at the Copenhagen summit on 10-11 December.

Turkey is preparing for these landmarks of its future orientation in the world with the full appreciation of the fact that 2004 is a turning point both in international relations and its national economy. The success of the 28 January visit to Washington will definitely be quite important for Turkey in the final shaping of these events, even though Turkish-American relations are far off the claim of strategic relations today. uras@ada.net.tr - January 3^rd, 2004