PULSE of TURKEY No: 67-74 .................................................... NOVEMBER 1998

PULSE of TURKEY No:67 NEW BUDGET TO FIGHT GLOBAL CRISIS

The 1999 Budget is drawn up to fight global financial crisis with the assumption that it will continue next year though there were signs of its easing with the G-7 resolutions last week. New Budget aims at getting by without much external financing – as against $7 billion external debt repayment next year, only $4 billion external loan is estimated to arrive. This year’s performance is good thanks to budgetary discipline, but public financing is still not devoid of some budgetary tricks to avoid embarrassment for the PM. New discipline for public financing is in the offing. Inflation goes down, interest rates soar.

PULSE of TURKEY No:68 IS A NEW WAVE OF TERRORISM STARTING AGAINST TURKEY?

The Germany-based Islamic fundamentalists caught before they could engage in massive terrorist activities in Ataturk’s Mausoleum may be a new phase of terrorism against Turkey. Vigilance of Turkish intelligence prevented a disaster this time, but the decades long subversive activity preparations against Turkey are bound to continue. So are the Turkish efforts to render them ineffective. The great disadvantage of the perpetrators is that Turkey is both experienced and very well documented about these preparations. The deepened investigation into organized crime sheds interesting light on inter-linked subversion against Turkey.

PULSE of TURKEY No:69 ORGANISED CRIME CARRIES THE DAY AGAINST GOVERNMENT

Mesut Yýlmaz’s fight against the Mafia and organized crime started when he was in the opposition. It is now in full swing with his coalition partner Bülent Ecevit’s and the military’s total support, but his contacts with criminals are now taking their toll. MIT’s involvement in “idealists” (ultra-nationalist right-winger activists) in the early 80s paves the way for today’s organized crime. The key person in this organization, Hiram Abas, was a veteran intelligence officer in the know with personal involvement. His experience helps to understand the problems of today much better.

PULSE of TURKEY No:70 NEW GOVERNMENT WITH LITTLE CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT

There is a polarization in Parliament today between the present coalition and the other parties preparing to topple it. The CHP’s shift from the former to the latter will be the key in this political struggle in the aftermath of the prospective vote-of-no-confidence to the present Yýlmaz Government. Another and even a bigger key in the outcome of this struggle is President Demirel’s conduct and preferences which are influenced, indeed guided, by the NSC resolutions. The following are the expectations for the course of this struggle ahead.

PULSE of TURKEY No:71 ITALIAN HOSPITALITY TO CHIEF TERRORIST OCALAN

How long can this unwarranted hospitality last? Ocalan’s arrival in Rome from Moscow was a comedy of mistakes in the world media due to confusion of diplomatic and judicial realities. PM Mesut Yýlmaz’s courteous, but exceedingly tough warning to Italy reminds PM D’Alema of an international expression borrowed in every language from Italian – sub judice. The following is the intriguing story of the realities behind this worldwide misrepresentation of facts about the world’s most notorious terrorist alive.

PULSE of TURKEY No:72 ANAP CONVENTION INDICATES NEW GOVERNMENT

ANAP’s National Convention over the weekend was the best indicator for the government that will follow the current Yýlmaz Government after its inevitable downfall on November 25th. The new government is expected to be an ANAP-DYP-DSP coalition under Bülent Ecevit. Its alternative may be a DYP-CHP government with FP support, but it is very unlikely. “Political Islam” is not favoured even as support from outside the government, the reason being the NSC’s estimates that religious fundamentalism is the next wave of agitation to preoccupy Turkey in the period ahead as the PKK’s military strength is being weaned and Apo is on his way to life imprisonment in Germany, if not in Turkey.

PULSE of TURKEY No:73 PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMY PAVE THE WAY TO NEW GOVERNMENT

The principle of registering the economy has served as an amnesty for Tansu Çiller and paved the way for the new Government. It has also provided an opportunity for the continuation of the political, economic and foreign policy developments in the basic direction of the Republic. The economy is still withstanding the global storm, with dangers in store for 1999. Political stability is a must for steering safe in this global crisis and Ecevit may provide this until the elections. Giant investments totalling $6.5 billion start in 1998 despite financial crisis and policy to cool off the overheated economy.

PULSE of TURKEY No:74 EDGING TOWARDS CENTRE-LEFT COALITION

Quality and not quantity will determine the future governments in Turkey, both before and after the forthcoming elections. The measures sought by President Demirel to ensure this quality makes the formation of the Government even more difficult as Baykal underlined. But another principle the President imposes for the new Government: “No minority government”, makes the ANAP-DYP-DSP coalition the only alternative available and competition between Yýlmaz and Çiller leaves behind only one person for Prime Minister - Bülent Ecevit. As for who determines this “quality” and how, please read the article below.

 

 

 

 

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