NEW ERA FOR TURKEY

The 57^th Government just formed under PM Bulent Ecevit promises to be the longest living ruling power of Turkey of recent decades. Every effort is exerted to achieve this durability. The composition of the tripartite coalition and its even-handed government program are promising for this long-term ruling power, an unusual phenomenon in Turkish politics. Below is the story of this unity and the prospective pitfalls.

Both President Demirel and PM Ecevit have recently complained that Turkey’s public life and the economy have been pestered in recent decades because elections brought forth no stable governments. Ten governments had ruled in the last ten years, President Demirel complained recently. Talks of new elections always started immediately after the general elections because they brought no stability to the government question in recent decades observed PM Ecevit, stressing its ill effects on Turkey’s stability.

His determination to prevent the recurrence of this unfortunate reality in Turkish democratic life was the main reason for the prolongation of the government’s formation and there is reason to believe that he might have attained his goal.

Composition of the Government inspires hope for durability

With the formation of the new Ecevit Government as a strong tripartite coalition, Turkey is clearly entering a new era in every respect. Careful scrutiny of the structure of the coalition shows that it is an even-handed partnership of the three parties with 12 ministers from each of the DSP and MHP and 10 from ANAP, in addition to the Prime Minister. The possible alterations in the number of seats of each coalition party (through the all-common Turkish political practice of resignations or sign-ups) will not result in the change of the composition of the Government, according to the pre-established rules of the coalition.

It is an equal partnership of three parties, with the smallest partner ANAP having no less say in the rule than the other two. Even though ANAP inevitably has two less seats in the Cabinet, it has the all-important Speaker’s position in Parliament. It also has its share in all aspects of public life and government rule, as do the other two parties. According to the principles of the coalition protocol, the three party chairmen (Ecevit, Bahceli and Yilmaz) will hold periodical meetings to determine the highlights of the future policies in domestic politics, the economy and foreign policy. This will continue until Mesut Yilmaz returns to full political life in Parliament after having been purged of any shadow of corruption by the Supreme Court. There are eight parliamentary investigation reports against him left from the previous parliament and the ANAP Chairman is determined to pass them through judicial scrutiny, along with the one against DYP Chairperson Tansu Ciller. While insiders believe that the parliamentary investigation reports against Mesut Yilmaz are totally politically minded absurd charges that do not hold water, the exact opposite is the case for Tansu Ciller.

The parliamentary investigation report against Ciller concerns the Parsadan scandal. On the eve of the December 1995 general elections a crook, Selcuk Parsadan, called the then PM Tansu Ciller pretending to be former Ground Forces Commander Necdet Oztorun. Ciller naively gave the impostor TL5 billion from the Prime Minister’s secret funds "to help Ataturkists win the elections as a side force to Ciller’s DYP". When the opposition learnt of it, a scandal broke out. Ciller denied everything and no one could get the documents for secret funds that are burned within a month. However, Selcuk Parsadan was brought to justice, confessed everything and has since been serving a prison sentence for swindling the Government. As for Tansu Ciller, she has since taken shelter behind parliamentary immunity and saves herself from the clutches of justice. There is another similar secret fund corruption charge of TL500 billion against Ciller, but it cannot be proved, the documents having been burnt. In the Parsadan case, however, her responsibility, at least negligence, if not swindling, is evident. Contrary to Mesut Yilmaz, she can never get clearance from the judiciary once she is sent to the Supreme Court after the amendment of Article 83 of the Constitution to narrow down parliamentary inviolability.

Another characteristic of the present Government is that Cumhur Ersumer of ANAP has become the Minister of Energy to replace the DSP’s Ziya Aktas who is, rightly or wrongly, accused of being a secret American national. Turkey’s ages long energy problems and shortages were put on the path of solution during Ersumer’s rule as Minister of Energy in the Yilmaz-Ecevit coalition. There were complaints that during the outgoing Ecevit Government both energy investments and the Black Sea coastal road to link Turkey to Georgia and beyond were greatly hampered with appropriations not paid to the contractors. Especially important is the pipeline construction to Iran. Turkey is under treaty obligation to complete the pipeline to Iran by May 27^th, 2000 in order to import 10-billion m³/year natural gas from that country. Ersumer’s assignment as Minister of Energy is an assurance of the timely completion of these projects.

Ruling parties fall short of capability to amend the Constitution, but only just

The DSP-MHP-ANAP Government is strong enough in Parliament to even amend the Constitution with some difficulty as far as the parliamentary arithmetic goes.

Under Article 175 of the Constitution a two-thirds majority (367 votes) is needed to amend the Constitution. The DSP-MHP-ANAP coalition with 352 members falls short of 15 seats to be able to amend the Constitution. Under this Article if the votes remain between 330 and 367 (which is the case for the present coalition unless they get the backing of the independents or some of the opposition members) then a referendum is needed for the amendment.

The first test for the coalition about its capability to amend the Constitution will be for the alteration of Article 143 about the DGM (State Security Courts) and Law 2845 passed within that provision. It concerns the military judge at the Abdullah Ocalan trial or rather at all State Security Court trials. Turkey has been warned by its western allies that unless the military judge is replaced by a civilian judge in DGMs, their verdicts will not be regarded legal by international courts or institutions of the West. This is a matter as serious as risking Turkey’s membership to the Council of Europe and other western institutions. That is why it will be one of the first bills to be tackled by the new Government as soon as the vote of confidence formalities are completed in Parliament, hopefully by June 6^th.

As the opposition is not objecting to the amendment of this provision (Article 143 of the Constitution concerning the State Security Courts) there may not be much problem in that regard, but other constitutional amendments may prove to be more difficult for the coalition to carry out. The coalition parties’ strength in Parliament surpasses the three-fifths majority (330 votes) required for constitutional amendments through a referendum, but falls short of the two-thirds (367 votes) majority required for amending the Constitution directly by Parliament.

Harmony in the coalition is the key to its success

In other words, the present Ecevit Government is the strongest one the Turkish people have had for a long time, as far as parliamentary arithmetic goes, but its weakness concerns possible disharmony among the coalition partners, especially between the DSP and the MHP.

The strength of the coalition was evident in parliament on Tuesday (25^th) even before the formation of the Government when the coalition partners joined hands and changed the composition of the Chairmanship Council of the House. There are now 20 members in the Chairmanship Council of Parliament plus the Speaker, Yildirim Akbulut, from ANAP. By increasing the number to 20 the coalition parties increased their members in the Chairmanship Council at the expense of the DYP and it may facilitate their work at the debates and legislation work.

If, after a poor start, PM Ecevit manages to work out as harmonious a co-operation with his first deputy, Devlet Bahceli, and the MHP in general as he has had with Mesut Yilmaz and ANAP, Turkey will really have a very productive five-year government ahead.

The opposition has already started focusing its criticism on provoking the MHP that it has been meek and mild during the government formation and in drafting the coalition protocol. FP Chairman Recai Kutan says that the centre pole of the tripartite coalition is the DSP-ANAP partnership and that the MHP is as insignificant in this coalition as the Democrat Turkey Party was in the 55^th Government. The claim is far from reflecting the truth as the MHP is too strong to be just a spare tyre in the Government machinery, but this propaganda will be the main theme of the opposition determined to fight the Government in the period ahead. Touchy questions such as religious education, the Islamic headscarf issue and certain extremist racist practices of the MHP may be problematic in the following period. Already some adjustments have been made to satisfy the MHP on these issues during the prolonged period to form the Government.

For instance, Koran courses for village children were banned when compulsory primary education was extended from five years to eight by the Yilmaz-Ecevit Government. It is now freed and at the end of the fifth year children can attend Koran courses. However, the DSP has taken charge of the Religious Affairs Organisation and will keep a close eye on this practice to prevent them from turning into party politics. Naturally, the National Security Council is there to stay to review these practices every month. The NSC draws attention to and takes resolutions about the dangers to national security through abuses in teaching and practising religion. As the MHP has the Minister of Defence position in the Government, it will have the opportunity to learn first-hand the concerns and feelings of the commanders on these matters.

Relations with Turkish descent nations are of critical importance

Again the MHP’s traditional policy of solidarity with the Turkish descent peoples and countries may create problems for Turkey in its relations with Russia and China and that is the last thing PM Ecevit would like to see. If this solidarity is taken any further than cultural and economic relations and turn into provocation of independence or hostile activities against Moscow and Beijing, Turkey’s international relations and national interests may be harmed greatly.

DYP Chairperson Tansu Ciller’s adventures in power in 1994 and 1995 that went as far as plotting against the life of a friendly head of State like President Haidar Aliyev was a good eye-opener for everybody. In the Chechen disturbances too the then PM Tansu Ciller joined hands with certain MHP adventurers and engaged in subversive activities against Moscow. These activities, even though done by the Prime Minister of Turkey and some of her colleagues such as State Minister Ayvaz Gokdemir, another former "ulkucu" (idealist), had nothing to do with Turkey.

Now that the MHP is in power, the utmost care is being taken by State security organisations to weed out these agents provocateurs from political parties and other organisations, Merve Kavakci being the first case.

Foreign Minister Ismail Cem said, "China is a country that stands out as one of Turkey’s biggest partners in future." The coalition protocol also contains such a sentence despite ANAP’s suggestion at the drafting of the protocol that they should not go into such details as relations with each country. For the DSP China was not just a single country, but a super-power to influence world affairs and balances in the years ahead and the sentence about China went into the coalition protocol as a significant gesture.

This development coincided with China’s cancellation of its co-operation with the United States after the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade and Turkey’s signing a military co-operation agreement with China, after a number of economic agreements.

The MHP militants’ close relations with East Turkestan have long been a bone of contention between Ankara and Beijing. The East Turkestan lobby under the auspices of the MHP had long been disturbing China by laying black wreaths at the gate of the Chinese Embassy and encouraging East Turkestan dissidents against Beijing, much to the disenchantment, indeed fury, of the Chinese.

With the Chinese Embassy’s initiatives, the MFA ( Ministry of Foreign Affairs) finally issued a decree banning anti-Chinese activities and slogans in Turkey. Under this decree promulgated last December, secessionist activities by MHP militants against China will no longer be permitted in Turkey. Now that the MHP is power it will be seen if Devlet Bahceli will be another Tansu Ciller and Ayvaz Gokdemir to foul Turkey’s relations with Russia and China or he behaves himself. By all indications, he will be a responsible statesman and the MHP will be gained to the system with a purge of extremists. This is the pre-requisite of the harmonious work for the next five years by the new Ecevit Government. Mesut Yilmaz’s proved statesmanship may prove to be a good catalyst to facilitate this amicability in Turkish politics. He has already played a historic role in ironing out the differences between the DSP and the MHP. Both ends of the tripartite coalition appreciate ANAP’s conciliatory role in the formation of the Government, so do the State organs and the people in the know. Turkey’s allies will also come to realise it in time.

The new Government will try to reactivate relations with the European Union, probably without much success, judging Europe’s adverse stance hitherto. Mesut Yilmaz’s chief advisor Mehmet Ali Irtemcelik, in his capacity as the State Minister in charge of European affairs, is the right person to achieve this development, no matter how unlikely it is to work out a good consensus with Europe after the Luxembourg rebut to Turkey. uras@ada.net.tr, May 31^st, 1999