PULSE of TURKEY No: 82-86 .................................................... JANUARY 1999
PULSE of TURKEY No:82 ECEVIT’S
FIRE BRIGADE GOVERNMENT ON DUTY
The economy is top priority for the new government. PM Ecevit expects to reach a standby agreement with the IMF to ease the burden of $24 billlion debt servicing in the first four months. The Government expects to complete the vote of confidence formalities by January 15th and pass a few economic bills before the election campaign totally paralyses Parliament. The election system will not be changed because of Tansu Çiller’s fear of the postponement of the elections from April 18th. Neither will there be any initiatives to push through parliamentary investigation procedures. Ecevit’s foreign policy will be a continuation of the outgoing Government.
PULSE of TURKEY No:83 ECEVIT
GOVERNMENT’S LIFESPAN and PENDING PROBLEMS
The caretaker nature of the Ecevit Government is a hindrance to its getting financial support from abroad. The success or failure of the forthcoming talks with the IMF depends more on foreign policy issues with the USA than the Government’s lifespan or other factors. The determining factor in this regard are the developments in Northern Iraq. Last week saw crucial signs of this policy.
PULSE of TURKEY No:84 TURKEY
IN THE PINCERS OF MISSILES
PULSE of TURKEY No:85 PATRIOTS
IN TURKEY FOR IRAQ CRISIS
Is the deal over Patriot batteries indicative of a change of policy in Turkey’s missile strategy or a temporary arrangement? Does it concern the US-Iraq confrontation and other Middle East balances or is it part of a wider defence arrangement by Turkey for the new century? What will Turkey’s stance be in the imminent showdown between the United States and Iraq? Ecevit’s plan for Iraq is being revised before re-launched.
PULSE of TURKEY No:86 ENHANCEMENT
OF BANKING SYSTEM IS A MUST FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY
The Ecevit Government is not following populist economic policies and it is an assurance for the continuation of the economic stability program of the previous (55th) Government – a righteous demand of the IMF for cooperation with Turkey. Consequently, the downtrend in inflation will continue in the pre-election period and thereafter. The IMF team will see proof of this before leaving Turkey on February 8th. The appreciation of these facts and Turkey’s political realities may eliminate the Fund’s concern about the Ecevit Government being a caretaker one. But it must show the IMF that it is capable of passing the Bank Bill.