TURKPULSE No:90..........MARCH 2nd, 2003
The Western media has been portraying Turkey as a profiteer trying to scoop exorbitant financial gains out of the imminent war in Iraq. The reality is the reverse. Ankara is only trying to prevent being the second biggest loser from the war after the Iraqi people, as was the case in the first Gulf War, and also to ensure its security. The financial aspect of the tough talks with the United States was only a secondary issue for Turkey; strategic issues being a much deeper rooted and vitally more important long-term problem for the nation. Needless to say it concerns the long-term American plans to create a new independent State in the region by provoking the Kurds’ outmoded nationalist feelings. The Turkish Parliament’s rejection on March 1st of the Government’s motion to let the United States use Turkey as a base for an aggression against Iraq was the best answer to the claims that the Turkish nation was selling itself off to the Americans.
The German-French alliance, backed up by the strong Russian support, has been one of the major forces to prevent the Anglo-American alliance from starting a war against Iraq, but there was an even bigger factor in preventing this aggression in the offing: the public opinions and consciences of these democratic nations, as well as Turkey’s incontestable might in this region.
The spontaneous anti-war demonstration of two million Londoners on World Peace day, backed up by 700 thousand protestors in Glasgow where Prime Minister Tony Blair was at that time, was indeed admirable and the Australians, “down under,” were not at all less effective with their massive popular anti-war agitations that went on for days. An equally important moral factor was the dignified voice raised by an American diplomat, J Brady Kiesling, who resigned from the position of the DHM (Deputy Head of Mission) of the American Embassy of Athens in protest of President Bush’s Iraq policy.
TGNA puts a spoke in President Bush’s war plans for Iraq
What really has been delaying the aggressive intentions of the Washington-London axis that is now growing with Italian and Spanish support, as well as the new allies from the former Warsaw Pact countries, was clearly Turkey’s stance and military moves in northern Iraq. Nevertheless, time is working for Might, unfortunately not for Right, and the aggressors-to-be are being reinforced with new forces, as the newcomers’ wisdom compels them to be on the winning side. Turkey is no exception and this catch 22 situation was nearly inducing Ankara to eventually side with the war front after having done everything in its power to preserve peace in the region.
Luckily the common sense of the elected members of the TGNA (Turkish Grand National Assembly) carried the day on Saturday (1st) and with a tiny margin the Government’s motion for making Turkey an American military base for the region was closely rejected. The existence of Incirlik base in southern Turkey is not so important. It is an archaic relic of the cold war period that will sooner or later be liquidated as a strange creature that is becoming a meaningless institution unable to adapt itself to today’s international realities or be transformed into another identity with today’s realities.
Incirlik base was set up against the Warsaw Pact and the potential Soviet aggression, neither of which exist today. The Americans have been working to make it out to be an airbase for the Middle East, the Gulf and Central Asia, but Ankara does not permit it to be used for anything more than reconnaissance from the air of northern Iraq, under the arrangements made after Saddam’s aggressive invasion of Kuwait in 1990. While the American jets bomb Iraq’s military installations from Kuwait and Qatar every day from the south, they only carry out surveillance duty from the north. Washington is clearly dissatisfied with this state of affairs and apparently working hard for creating an independent Kurdish State as a military base for itself, no matter how much it denies this claim at this point.
Will the TGNA rejection be long living?
The TGNA’s rejection on Saturday to make Turkey an American base against Iraq is an important development under these conditions, but how long will that decision hold good? Most probably the party leadership will dissuade AKP dissidents from rejecting the Government’s motion and a new voting will take place with also American moves by eliminating its hesitations to make the $15 billion economic support to Turkey subject to IMF supervision. A more important issue is the American support of the Iraqi Kurds in their strife with the Turkmen community and consequently with Turkey. Washington’s living up to its commitments at the talks, but soft paddling the implementation of these agreed upon points in practice was one of the main reasons to induce the TGNA to reject the government’s motion.
Experience of the last 50 odd years shows that Turkey and the United States always find a way out of their disagreements and unpleasant surprises such as the Johnson letter in 1964 and the American military embargo against Turkey ten years later. This time too a last minute improvement is sure to save a crisis in Turkish-American relations. It may not be fully satisfactory to either side, but the “troubled alliance” has to continue according to the mutual interests of the two countries.
The impact of the Iraq standoff on Turkey’s domestic politics
One thing is certain that the AKP will lose a lot by these developments, which will certainly bring about a splintering in the party. The traditional leader of the religious political parties in Turkey, Necmettin Erbakan’s 5-year ban in politics has expired and he is already pressurising AKP parliamentarians by saying that they cannot save themselves from Hell in the other world even if “seven generations of their descendents pray for them non-stop should they vote for this motion which will spill innocent Islamic blood.”
AKP Chairman Tayyip Erdogan is heading for elections from Siirt this coming Sunday (9th). He suspended the AKP parliamentary caucus activities last Saturday to go to Siirt to canvass for his election to parliament as the prerequisite for his premiership only to hear his party members’ heavy booing when he attempted to explain his Iraq policy. “May God damn those who drag Turkey into a war so that the Bush-Blair-Barzani trio can devour more filthy lucre from the innocent Muslim Iraqi people’s oil resources,” was the people’s reaction to him. Tayyip Erdogan’s election to parliament on Sunday is no longer a foregone conclusion under these conditions. What’s more, these election returns may have far reaching consequences for those who heed the trio’s balderdash that the phrase “Iraq will have to put up with the grave consequences” in UN Resolution 1441 means the “international legitimacy” sought by the Turkish Constitution for involvement in a war for any country.
It is to be hoped that the rulers of the Anglo-American democracies as well as the choice of the Turkish nation at the 3 November elections will wholeheartedly heed the voice of their peoples shouting at mass demonstrations that they are inadvertently creating a hero (out of a horrible dictator who greatly harmed his people with unwise adventures) who is pushing away the oil sheiks’ offer of a luxurious life in exile and heading for death in defence of his country with a calm and collected smile advising President Bush “relax, relax” for his fiery speeches against himself.
The high values of the democratic world merit a better leader than President Bush and PM Blair has to do much more than he has done so far in advising his colleague common sense about not ignoring the voice of the millions in the streets of the entire world. uras@ada.net.tr - March 2nd, 2003