TURKPULSE No:88..........FEBRUARY 2nd, 2003
Despite
strenuous efforts by the Washington-guided universal disinformation mechanism
to make Turkey out to be their partner in the prospective American assault,
indeed aggression against Iraq, the real picture is quite different as has
been reported by Pulse
for
over a year now, starting with its article dated December 31th,
2001. Far from being a party in this forthcoming military campaign in the
Gulf, the Turkish Armed Forces are moving sufficient forces into Northern Iraq
and reinforcements to the common frontier to deter this intention and the top
Turkish commanders are issuing statements about their “determination and
capability” to fulfil this peace mission. The Americans first attempted to
describe Turkey’s actions about northern Iraq as “adventure”, but they
are realising better each day that the Turkish moves are neither a bluff nor a
bargaining chip to be waived in time, but a deep-rooted national security
issue based on long calculations and experience. For the latest development in
this carefully calculated national security policy of Turkey, please see the
article below.
No
need to
repeat what Pulse
wrote on October 6th,
2002 under the headline, “The
American economic
miracle and its driving force” (Issue
No: turkpulse 81). Four
months afterwards the article stands solidly valid today with President
Bush’s determination to save the American economy from collapse by declaring
war on Iraq. What’s more, the NSC, Turkey’s top national security organ,
has been presented with a report about it, according to the daily Aksam
(27th), which
banner headlines “It
(the United States) will sink if not fight (a war).”
“The
report prepared for the National Security Council explains the facts behind
President Bush’s insistence on war. The U.S. budget will suffer a $463
billion deficit this year. An economic crisis in 2003 or 2004 is unavoidable.
The war on Iraq aims at saving the economy from stagnation,”
reads the newspaper’s headline. According
to the NSC Secretariat’s report presented to the NSC, “Following
the 11 September attack, the American economy received grave blows in several
sectors, primarily in aviation and tourism, resulting in bankruptcies and
heralding serious signals that the economic growth of the previous ten years
was turning into a chronic recession from the stagnation that ensued President
Bush’s coming to power.” Even
the mere preparations for war during the last six months have given the U.S.
economy a boost and this fact has to be carefully kept in view, advises the
NSC report.
The
American economy thrives in war whereas the Turkish one suffers
While
the shrewdness of the 67-year-old Nye report to Congress is confirmed by
today’s developments (that the munitions companies of the United States
cause wars in the world), the exact opposite is the case for the Turkish
economy. The elimination of Turkish exports from the Iraqi and the entire Gulf
markets as a result of the UN embargo on Iraq after the 1990-1991 Gulf war is
a good lesson and guideline for today’s rulers in Ankara. That is why
today’s Iraq policy of Turkey is shaping in the light of this experience and
meticulous scientific calculations are carried out to prevent a confrontation
with the United States, but not to be the loosing side if it proves
unavoidable some time somehow, despite all the care taken by Ankara.
Ambassador
Marc Parris was right when he reminded the Turkish nation that in the 1990
crisis President Bush had interrupted a press conference to answer President
Ozal’s phone call from Ankara. He may also be right about his warning that
if the present Turkish Government’s Iraq policy continues Ankara may have
deaf ears from Washington to its approaches about shaping Iraq and the Gulf in
the post war period after the imminent American attack on Baghdad. Where he is
totally wrong is the American belief that Turkey will loose greatly from it.
Indeed, what did the Turkish nation gain from President Bush’s going out of
his way to respond to President Ozal’s call in 1990 and also from the red
carpet treatment his son extended to Tayyip Erdogan today straight after the 3
November elections in Turkey? These top level personal American contacts with
Turkish rulers resulted in President Ozal’s absolutely irrational Gulf
policy in 1990-91, as well as the consequent great losses of Turkey from this
policy and in the AKP Chairman Erdogan’s nonsensical judgement today in
describing Denktas as a barrier to the solution in Cyprus. Neither of these
two cases is desirable for Turkey in seeking Washington’s favour.
Besides,
leaving aside the economic aspect of Turkish-American relations, the present
civilian and especially military rulers of Turkey are basing their Iraq policy
today on facts, past experience and strength of the Turkish Armed Forces which
are already in northern Iraq to forestall undesirable developments over
Iraq’s national unity. How can Washington possibly ignore one or two army
corps of Turkey in northern Iraq when the time comes for reshaping the post
Saddam Iraq? As evidenced by the Iranian and Iraqi ambassadors’ recent
interviews with the daily Milliyet,
those countries welcome the Turkish military presence in northern Iraq and see
it as a safeguard for peace. While the entire world will be behind this
military force serving world peace, the Bush-Blair partnership will be
denounced by the majority of the American and British peoples themselves for
this aggression in the offing.
Military
cooperation with the U.S. is merely for peace
These
are the realities Washington and London have to take into consideration and by
all indications their democratic systems and structures impose on the relevant
administrations to do so. In other words, the Turkish Armed Forces in northern
Iraq is not an occupation force, but the assurance of the Gulf policy that
failed ten years ago, because it had no teeth to prevent aggression.
Turkey’s policy that the
defence of the Gulf belongs to the Gulf countries
proved wrong 10-15 years ago because it had no power to deter Saddam from the
Kuwait adventure or the subsequent Gulf War. Now with the approval of the
countries of the region the Turkish Armed Forces are filling that gap because
this issue is a vitally important long-term national security question for
Turkey, and the countries of the region also see it as such. PM Abdullah Gul
is going on with his top-level contacts with the regional countries to call a
summit in Damascus of the six countries that recently held a meeting in
Istanbul at foreign minister level for the Iraq crisis. All these efforts are
adding strength to Turkey`s peace efforts for the Gulf.
As
for the alleged contradiction between these peace efforts and Turkey’s
cooperation with the American military to modernise and improve the military
airports and naval ports, Foreign Minister Yakis has clarified that the
American soldiers would come here for NATO’s contributions to Turkey’s
military installations, but receiving American soldiers in Turkey for
attacking Iraq was out of the question at least at the moment. The latest NSC
statement about Iraq on Friday (31st) also confirms this point. It
calls for Parliament’s decision for receiving American forces in Turkey, but
stresses that unless a new UN Security Council resolution is passed for that
purpose attacking Iraq would not be legitimate.
Washington’s
indirect answer to this development was to push a claim to the world media
that if Turkey kept on delaying its cooperation with the US for Iraq it would
result in the stepped up American cooperation with the Kurds for the same
purpose. According to Ankara’s understanding, this intention clearly means
heavily arming the Barzani and Talabani tribes as well as the relic of the PKK
in northern Iraq and that is most probably the reason for Turkey’s force
shipments to the Iraqi frontier in order to dissuade Washington from such an
adventure or nib it in the but if this warning is not heeded.
Needless
to say, this Turkish policy on the Iraqi crisis is bound to cause difficulties
for the Gul Government in its efforts to put the economy in order with the
help of the IMF and the World Bank, but the Government is bent on taking this
risk, rather than being dragged into a war with a neighbour without any fault
of the other side. uras@ada.net.tr
- February 2nd, 2003