GOVERNMENT WITH MHP – TIME TO BE TIMID

The notorious background of the MHP with their previous ganging up in the State mechanism is one of the biggest worries and possible weaknesses of the prospective tripartite Government under PM Bulent Ecevit. Will there be any radical foreign policy changes in Turkey with the MHP’s influence? Abdullah Ocalan’s trial may be the first indicator.

Contrary to the other parties, the two victors of the April 18^th elections, the DSP and the MHP, did not go into detailed promises during their election campaigns and preferred short, catchy phrases instead. The DSP’s mottoes stressed the reliability and honesty of their Chairman, Bulent Ecevit, and his Party, and the MHP emphasised their courage and fitness to govern the State (the first name of the Chairman, Devlet Bahceli, means "State" in Turkish). So by shouting in chorus "Devlet Millet ele ele" (State and Nation hand in hand), the MHP’s very active, indeed noisy crowds were in fact shouting that Devlet (Bahceli) and Nation were hand in hand and that he was coming to power.

Another catch phrase of the MHP was picking at the FP’s efforts under Chairman Recai Kutan to be more cautious about headscarves and religious topics. "Urkek degil, erkek parti" (Not a timid, but manly party) went the MHP’s easily remembered definition of itself during the campaign.

How manly or timid will the MHP be in Government?

Now that a coalition with the MHP is in the pipeline, the key question is how "timid" or "manly" it will be in its demands of the other coalition parties and its performance in power.

Due to the MHP’s past record there is great concern among the people and especially from PM Ecevit about a coalition with that party. After the general elections at the end of 1973 the Suleyman Demirel Government was formed on March 31^st 1975 by four right-wing parties including the MHP and Necmettin Erbakan’s MSP, following the Ecevit-Erbakan partnership in 1974 which had brought about the American arms embargo on Turkey.

This right-wing coalition that lasted until June 21^st, 1977 was called the "Milliyetci Cephe" (Nationalist Front). In this first "MC", the MHP with three seats in Parliament managed to effectively infiltrate into the State mechanism through its "idealists".

The result was a disaster. The MHP’s Ministers motivated the systematic organisation of nationalist teachers and students in schools around their organisation TOB-Bir (the Turkish Teachers Union) and "Ulku Ocaklari" (the Idealist Homes). There were other "ulkucu" ganging-ups in the Police and most government offices. The MSP’s Minister of the Interior in this coalition, Oguzhan Asilturk, drew PM Demirel’s attention to this "idealist ganging up" in the State mechanism. He described Demirel as Dr Frankenstein who was unable to cope with the monster he had created. The daily armed clashes and violence between these "idealist" activists and their leftist counterparts rapidly dragged the country to military rule in September 1980.

At the 1977 general elections, the MHP increased its votes from 3.4% in 1973 to 6.4% and its seats in Parliament from three to 16. It gave way to the second "MC", again under PM Suleyman Demirel between July 21st, 1977 and January 5^th 1978. With more votes at the elections and more seats in both Parliament and the Cabinet, the MHP stepped up its activism and clashes with the left on all fronts.

According to a Ministry of the Interior report, there were 28 commando camps training these "idealists" for the fight against leftist activists. The MHP announced in its 1973 election manifesto that thanks to the 12 March 1971 military intervention the idealists had handed over their fight against leftist activists to the armed forces.

"Idealists" lose their privileged position of the first interregnum

Even though it had been welcomed by the security forces, this announcement was not of any practical use, because the ganging up of the right-wing activists within the State mechanism went on unleashed during the two "MC" governments. That is why, contrary to the March 12^th interregnum, the one after the September 12^th 1980 coup cracked down upon the "idealists" as strongly as on their leftist counterparts. Alpaslan Turkes was arrested. Several court trials were set in motion against right-wing activists most of who had already become notorious terrorists. They were, by and large, purged from the State mechanism. Several "idealists" were sentenced to death. The last criminal to be executed in Turkey was an "idealist" in 1980.

The end of the cold war, however, and the proclamation of independent states in central Asia with the disintegration of the USSR in 1989, gave new momentum to Alpaslan Turkes and his MHP because they had been advocating for close ties with the Turkic nations all along. President Demirel took Alpaslan Turkes along with him on several State visits in this region and the MHP Chairman became the centre of attention in many cultural activities of the Turkic groups and States.

Under these conditions, the Turkish nation has brought the MHP to power as the second biggest party and it coincides with the crossroads that exists in Turkey’s foreign policy, as well as a new strategy for Nato and the world. It is obvious that Turkey’s relations with Central Asian republics will be stepped up in the new era, because both the DSP and the MHP wish it. But this healthy development may turn into an unhealthy, even dangerous adventure if the ultra nationalists are given a free hand in government management, as has been seen in the past.

The security forces and PM Ecevit will take the utmost care for the prevention of the recurrence of "idealist" ganging up in the State mechanism.

President Demirel is dragging his feet about forming a new Government

With or without any unknown intention or purpose, President Demirel is clearly dragging his feet about the Government formation. He is waiting for unnecessary formalities such as the official announcement of the election results by the High Electoral Board, the oath taking of the new MPs and election of the Speaker and the committees. He has already said that the Government would not be formed before May 20^th. As the Prime Minister will not be changed no one is objecting to this slow motion government formation, but it is slowing down several government businesses and the revival of the economy.

It is understood that the State wants to make sure about the MHP’s proper behaviour in the Government. In this regard, there are two tendencies. One is to exclude the MHP from the new Government and work out another coalition including the DYP, but it is found harmful, because it would mean pushing two strong extremist parties, the FP and the MHP, into the same camp. The opposition in Parliament would then be too strong and it would also cause disturbances and upheavals in the country over issues such as headscarves and student events.

Besides, in every party, especially in the DYP and ANAP, there are former "ulkucusu"s (idealists). It is claimed that even among the DSP’s parliamentarians there are such right-wing activists and they may transfer to the MHP if the party is left out of the new Ecevit Government. In that case a coalition around the MHP, a new "Nationalist Front", would be inevitable.

Devlet Bahceli is reluctant to resort to such ways and prefers to make the MHP a responsible, moderate party in coalition with Ecevit and Yilmaz.

All preparations are, therefore, being made for such a tripartite coalition, but the government program will contain strict rules to forestall the recurrence of right-wing activist infiltration into the State mechanism.

In return, the MHP claims that during Hikmet Ulugbay’s term as the Minister of Education 2600 teacher were posted to unpopular positions and places mid-term (i.e. while schools were going on) because they were "nationalists." The MHP will now insist that they are reinstated to their positions.

Even though there is mutual goodwill about including the MHP and ANAP in the new Government, and the ground has been paved, by and large, there are still certain points to be solved.

The tendency is to leave the Foreign Ministry to ANAP, but Ecevit wants to keep it in his party, indicating that he intends to make some radical changes in his foreign policy in the new era. His visit to Cyprus "to rest" straight after the elections was a significant indicator about his foreign policy intentions too.

The MHP has already declared its intention to leave the Customs Union with the EU, but President Demirel said that they might change their opinion when they have access to the secret files. Giving a boost to the economy in co-operation with the IMF and other international finance quarters of the West is high on the new government’s agenda. The Deputy PM for the economy, Hikmet Ulugbay, was in Washington last week making contacts in this direction. Rather than quitting the Customs Union a more likely development will be giving a spur to Turkey’s full membership to the EU. Chief Justice Ahmet Necdet Sezer’s criticism of the Constitution on the 37^th anniversary of the Constitutional Court last week shows that the West’s longstanding criticisms of Turkish democracy is also shared by many Turkish intellectuals and men in responsible positions.

The new Ecevit Government is sure to make certain amendments to the Constitution. They may include certain liberal provisions in line with the Chief Justice’s criticisms and the West’s suggestions to Turkey and they would facilitate Turkey’s full membership to the EU. The first hurdle in this respect is Abdullah Ocalan’s trial. It is hard to believe that the sentence will be anything other than capital penalty. Whether it would be enforced or not is another question. Most people believe in Turkey that he will be executed. A Government with the MHP makes such an action almost inevitable, especially given the strong representation the party now has in Parliament.

No matter how moderate Devlet Bahceli will try to appear in his early days in Parliament he has a big mass of supporters behind him pressing him to prove that the MHP is "urkek degil, erkek party."  uras@ada.net.tr, May 1^st, 1999