PULSE of TURKEY No:109 ............................JUNE 11th, 1999
FULL SPEED AHEAD FOR GOVERNMENT
The Ecevit Government has started work in Parliament with a fast tempo even before getting the vote of confidence on Wednesday. First priority goes to the Budget and the Banks Bill, after the all-important constitutional amendment for the State Security Courts. It is still unknown if the Government will be able to get the two-thirds majority for the amendment. Most probably Tansu Ciller will not be able to impose her will on the DYP members of Parliament about voting against the military judges in State Security Courts. For the interesting story of how to solve this thorny issue at the Ocalan trial see the article below.
It took PM Ecevit two solid months to complete the formalities for the formation of his present Government between the April 18th general elections and the vote of confidence on June 9th, despite a very tight schedule for the economy and political situation.
There was a tight schedule on three important national issues:
Is it too late to change the military judge in the Ocalan trial?
The last point was especially important for Turkey’s national security and international relations because the military judge in the National Security Court, which was trying the PKK Chief Abdullah Ocalan with a demand for capital penalty for treason, was clearly violating Turkey’s treaty commitments to Europe. Yet no government had been strong enough in Parliament in Turkey to amend the Constitution in recent years. That is why even though no Turkish ruler, civilian or military alike, was objecting to such a change in the Constitution for replacing the military judge by a civilian one, it was proving impossible to materialise.
Under these conditions, the Ocalan trial started on the Prison Island of Imrali on May 31st and made headlong progress with the defendant’s confessions to his crimes with apologies. The West, however, had already reminded Turkey at top level that it would never regard the sentence legal or acceptable as long as a military judge existed among the three judges.
Turkey being a State ruled by law, there was nothing anyone could do about eliminating this defect as long as the relevant provision of the Constitution existed. It was the reason for the Ecevit Government’s giving top priority to this amendment but it had already proved futile as it could no longer postpone the trial any further as nearly four months had passed since Ocalan’s arrival in Turkey from Kenya.
By all indications, the verdict will be passed before the end of June and the team of judges will contain a military judge, no matter what the Government does. Even if the Government passes this amendment today, it cannot possibly change the military judge, because it would be against another basic rule of the democratic world and Turkey’s judicial system - due process. For that reason, other methods are being contemplated to overcome these difficulties.
Ankara’s ingenious preparations to dodge problems
Many people in the world, and famous expert jurists think that Turkey is in a fix and it cannot pass the capital penalty on Abdullah Ocalan because of this impasse.
They are mistaken. Turkish experts have long examined all the internal and international rules of democratic countries’ judicial systems and found a way out of this impasse.
Even though the State Security Courts contain a military judge their rulings are subject to the scrutiny of the Court of Appeal which is totally civilian. The verdict on Ocalan will eventually come up with the civilian higher court. It may well quash the verdict on procedure because the judges contain a military judge and the trial in Imrali may be repeated by totally civilian judges, if Article 143 of the Constitution concerning the composition of the National Security Courts are amended accordingly in the meantime. This would not at all be against the rule of due process and no one can object to the verdict to be passed the second time after the quash in the pipeline.
As for the Ecevit Government’s capability to pass such a constitutional amendment, the vote of confidence on Wednesday (9th) was an assurance. Surpassing its 350 supporters (excluding the Speaker, Yildirim Akbulut, who has no right to vote) the DSP-MHP-ANAP coalition managed to get 354 votes of confidence and the no-confidence votes remained at 182. There are 13 more members who did not vote and if they support the amendment the Government can well get the required two-thirds majority (367) for the amendment.
The FP is especially manifesting understanding to this amendment, though it has some demands about restricting the State Security Courts to merely national security cases. It wants Article 312 of the Penal Code about spreading hatred among the people through dissemination of racist and religious separation to be excluded from these courts. As the security forces see religious activism as the next topic of external forces to cause problems for Turkey now that after ASALA, the PKK’s terrorism is being removed from Turkey’s agenda, the FP’s suggestion stands no chance of acceptance.
This may result in excluding the FP’s support to the amendment, but it is not a very serious problem. The other opposition party, the DYP, is there to stay for the coalition parties to get support from on this issue. Even though Tansu Ciller has declared her opposition to the amendment she is far from being in command of her party mechanism. The opposition within the party led by Necmettin Cevheri is very strong and Tansu Ciller can never get his demand for voting against the constitutional amendment accepted by all the DYP members. She is already proving too weak to have her own supporters elected to the parliamentary committees and the DYP is staying out of the committees at the moment. The DYP’s national convention was supposed to be held shortly, but Tansu Ciller has postponed it towards the end of the year with the fear of losing the party leadership.
Chairperson Ciller’s opponents are claiming that President Demirel may come and lead the DYP upon the completion of his tour of duty as the President next May. This claim is greatly cutting the ground from under Tansu Ciller’s feet and she is considering, in return, supporting the Constitutional amendment for the renewal of the president’s term. The turmoil in the DYP may help the tripartite coalition in passing certain constitutional amendments.
Economic performance top priority
The 1999 Budget has been taken up by the Budget Planning Committee even before the vote of confidence and is being reviewed rapidly for legislation before the end of this month. The TL23 quadrillion, 650 trillion Budget is exactly the same as the one that was presented to the outgoing Parliament. Because it was "caduc" (null and void), not having been passed by the previous Parliament, all the constitutional formalities and requirements for passing the budget are being repeated by the incoming Parliament.
Though the Budget is the same, the difference between the outgoing and incoming parliaments is enormous. In the previous parliament the Yilmaz-Ecevit Government or its successor, the Ecevit Government were both minority governments requiring the CHP’s support and this caused untold difficulties to the Cabinet. This time the tripartite Ecevit Government has a very comfortable majority in Parliament and it can make any changes to the existing laws or economic plans without delay or difficulty.
The 1999 Budget and the Banks Bill that are going through the Budget Planning Committee will, therefore, be laws before long. There was a scare about passing the Banks Bill before the Constitutional Court’s repeal of a provision went into force on June 11th. The State Minister for the economy, Hikmet Ulugbay, has dispelled this unfounded fear by announcing that the existing banks law would hold good until the new one was legislated. The Court repeal concerned only Article 64 of the Law concerning Government supervision and helping banks in distress, but the rest of the Law was in force, he pointed out.
Between June 15th and 28th the IMF team will be in Turkey for talks with the new Government. The 18-month special consultation agreement reached between Turkey and the IMF is ending soon and the consultations with the IMF team in the second half of June will lay the ground for the highlights of the Turkish economy under the new Ecevit Government. These talks may also provide the external financing needed by the Turkish economy.
The inflation rate in May did not confirm the claims that the inflation had again begun to rise. The yearly inflation rate is 50% in wholesale prices and 63% in consumer prices. The interest rates of Treasury bonds have been reduced below 100% and sail between 95-100% at the moment. It is clearly too high, but not out of the Government’s control, despite the elections. The wheat prices to be announced by the Government before long and the salary increase to civil servants in the second half of the year will be critically important. It will show the Government's determination to follow a non-populist economic stability policy by heeding the IMF's advice about economic and social reforms or taking the path of high economic growth at the expense of sacrificing economic stability. The Government is expected to give civil servants a 15% pay rise. If this goes up to 20% an additional TL650 trillion has to be found in the Budget. Likewise, the wheat prices in Turkey are almost double that of world prices and the Government is under the IMF’s pressure to stop this populist policy.
In addition to the IMF’s advice, PM Ecevit is under the constant influence of his coalition partner Mesut Yilmaz about not taking the populist path. Yet the leftist Prime Minister tends to pay attention at times to DYP Chairperson Tansu Ciller’s advice that the IMF has been proved wrong in the world and that instead of the Fund’s advice of checking the growth rate, Turkey should curb inflation by following a rapid economic growth policy.
By all indications, ANAP’s success in religiously following the economic stability program will carry the day in the end because it saved Turkey from falling into Russia’s position in last year’s global financial crisis.
Turkey’s economic policy and its stance in the world will be influenced by PM Ecevit’s expected talks in Washington, as soon as the urgent problems are taken under control. It is to be hoped that the four-point program Mesut Yilmaz worked out with the United States in December 1997and carried out successfully during his period in office will be repeated by PM Ecevit too. If this is done the doors will open for Turkey’s success in its economic stability efforts. The Prime Minister will not miss this opportunity, believe economic experts. uras@ada.net.tr, June 11th, 1999