Now that the Turkish Parliament has stopped wasting almost as much time on the election of the new president as the American Congress spent on the Monica Lewinsky affair, it is high time to get down to brass tacks and deal with more serious national questions, feel most responsible rulers in Ankara. As Parliament will take the usual summer recess at the beginning of July there is only 5-6 weeks to complete the urgent affairs concerned with the Legislature.

In addition to several bills to be passed and international treaties to be ratified, Parliament is bent on completing, before the recess, its supervisory work of the Executive. High on the agenda are eight investigation files against the ANAP Chairman, Mesut Yilmaz, for alleged corruption charges concerning his premiership before the April 1999 general elections. At Mesut Yilmaz’s insistence to clear his name from blemish, eight parliamentary investigation committees have been set up and their task is drawing to an end for the Parliamentary Floor to make their final decision. The investigation committees have already cleared Mesut Yilmaz of two charges and it is expected that the remaining six cases will also be completed by mid-June. Following the final voting at the Floor, presumably in favour of the ANAP chairman, the door will be opened for Mesut Yilmaz to enter the Cabinet as a deputy prime minister releasing Cumhur Ersumer from other responsibilities so that he can fully concentrate on the energy questions of Turkey. It may also have far reaching results in Turkey’s domestic politics, as it will save ANAP from the charge that Yilmaz and Ciller joined hands before the general elections in April 1999 and mutually hushed up one another’s acts of corruption. Mesut Yilmaz’s task as a deputy prime minister will focus on Turkey’s accession to the European Union, it is expected. The ANAP Chairman’s presence in the Cabinet will enable the Government to work more harmoniously, believes PM Ecevit and, at his initiative, this matter will be solved before Parliament goes into recess.

In addition to its supervisory work of the Executive, the Legislature is also expected to pass a number of international treaties before recess so that the Government can make the most of the summer months on these urgent issues. They are mostly concerned with energy, especially the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline and natural gas from the Caspian basin.

Following four years of intensive work and scores of international agreements on the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline project for both the Azeri oil and the Turkmen natural gas, it has come to the point of final action as Energy Minister Ersumer put it last week (on May 25^th). Both these energy projects in cooperation with the United States have so far proved disappointing.

On the Azeri oil side, there is clearly not enough oil to justify this enormous investment. Efforts to make up for this shortcoming with the addition of Kazakh oil through the pipeline continue. On the Turkmen gas side, the picture is even bleaker, as Turkmenistan has finally come round to selling its natural gas to Russia, after President Putin’s two-day visit to Askhabad on May 24-25^th. The Russian-Turkmenistan arrangements are not yet final as there are disagreements between them about the price, but by all indications, the Washington-originated trans-Caspian pipeline project has already fallen through, by and large, and the Americans themselves have come round to admitting it.

President Clinton’s envoy for the Caspian energy projects has told the Turkish media that, under these conditions, they could drop Turkmenistan as a source of natural gas and find other sources to meet Turkey’s energy needs. He suggested that the rich natural gas deposits recently found in Azerbaijan could be this source. In an interview to NTV he has finally put his finger on the real problem and said that the oil and gas multinationals should now stop their hesitation about investing in the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. He said the multinationals should start the construction of the pipeline without delay so that they will be able to provide natural gas to Turkey as from the end of 2002.

While Ankara is putting the finishing touches to the scores of agreements signed with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkmenistan for the trans-Caspian pipeline project, by ratifying these agreements before recess, it is also going on with the construction of the pipeline due to the urgency of energy procurements for Turkey. According to the arrangements made by Turkey so far with the oil and gas exporters - Russia, Iran or the multinationals, Turkey will build the pipeline within its own territory and it will be the exporter’s duty to deliver it to Turkey at the frontier. By April and May 2001, Russia and Iran will complete the pipelines for the Blue Stream project and for natural gas supplies from Iran. Turkey has undertaken to complete its part by that date. The pipeline through Turkey to Iran is being planned and built in such a way that with small extensions to the Georgian frontier it can also be used for the trans-Caspian pipeline project for Turkmen gas.

The dilemma of the American multinationals over Baku-Ceyhan

By building the pipeline for the Iranian gas, while Turkey is kind of going on with the investment for the gas from Turkmenistan, the architects of the trans-Caspian project, ie the American multinationals, are dragging their feet about starting the multi-billion-dollar investment. It is mostly because Moscow is putting a spoke in the wheel by bringing up unsettled problems such as the status of the Caspian and persuading, indeed forcing, Turkmenistan to sell its gas to Russia.

From Turkey’s angle, it is of little concern because if not through the trans-Caspian pipeline the Turkmen gas is bound to reach Turkey via Iran or Russia. Turkmen gas via Iran costs $60 per cubic meter, via the trans-Caspian pipeline $85 and via Russia $105. This is not very important for Turkey because whatever the cost may be all the parties concerned have already agreed upon a certain price of over $100.