TURKPULSE No:48..........SEPTEMBER 7th, 2001
Ankara has come to believe after half a century of ruptured relations with its northern, eastern and southern frontiers that if there is to be peace and prosperity in Turkey’s south, the Middle East and the Gulf regions, this will be materialized only through an EU style cooperation of the peoples concerned. Yet this cooperation involves much bigger self-interest calculations of the superpowers and moves at snail speed mostly due to that factor. Despite this hindrance there have been encouraging breakthroughs in this direction of late, as explained below.
Turkey
has long been aiming and striving to make its frontiers as open as the national
frontiers in Europe, especially among the EU members, but both its own domestic
conditions and its neighbours’ mutual relations and overall positions make it
impossible to bring this ambition to life.
GAP becomes a model for Turkey’s southern neighbours
In
recent weeks there have been some significant steps in that direction concerning
Turkey’s southern frontiers with Iraq and Syria. Following the Syrian Prime
Minister’s historic visit to Baghdad after decades of ruptured relations
between these two hostile Baath regimes, the Syrian Irrigation Minister, Taha
al-Attrash, paid a low profile visit to Turkey in order to make contacts for a
long-term cooperation on especially trans-boundary waters.
This
visit may be the beginning of a durable cooperation for the Euphrates and the
Tigris, among Turkey, Iraq and Syria and that, for its part, may open new vistas
for a much more comprehensive partnership in the region. During Al-Attrash’s
visit to Turkey in the second half of August, the General Directors of GAP (the
Southeast Anatolia project) and its Syrian counterpart, GOLD, signed a protocol
for joint training programs, joint investment ventures and exchange programs, to
coordinate this future cooperation.
Before
this significant development, which was a tentative step towards bridging the
differences of opinion on the core of the trans-boundary waters problem between
the two countries, some important steps were taken for multinational cooperation
in the region.
Following
five decades of land-mined frontiers between Turkey and Syria, Ankara has
finally decided to clear this 822 km long common frontier of land mines to open
up 36,000 hectares of fertile lands to agriculture. The Regional Governor of the
Emergency Rule area of South-east Anatolia, Gokhan Aydiner, told a press
conference on July 5th that this comprehensive de-mining project
would not only involve the common frontier with Syria, but also that of Iraq,
covering five provinces – Hakkari, Sirnak, Sanliurfa, Hatay and Kilis. Plots
of land that would be cleared of mines would be distributed among the people of
nearby villages for agricultural purposes, he stressed.
This
important step, far exceeding the powers of a regional governor, was taken by
Turkey’s top authority on national security questions, the NSC, and
constituted a major step to further lessen tension in the region and improve
relations with southern neighbours.
Furthermore,
this cooperation will be based on the cooperation of the peoples on both sides
of the frontier and the two governments will only take measures for the
supervision of frontier trade and prevention of infiltrations of terrorists and
subversive elements.
The
Director General of GAP, Olcay Unver, told the Syrian Minister Al-Attrash that
when GAP was completed, the GDP in the region would increase by 445% and the per
capita income would go up by 209%. The GAP project, in which $13.9 billion have
already been invested, requires $1.8 billion more a year until 2010, the new
deadline for the completion of the project as the 55th Government
under PM Mesut Yilmaz revised it from 2005 to 2010. To facilitate raising this
sum and to base the regional cooperation with the southern borders on the
people, Ankara has made a basic change in its GAP policy and made it a
people-centered development project, rather than a State investment. Unver told
the Syrian delegation, “GAP is a project
that takes the human being as the centre of its activities. It is a sustainable
project that focuses on human beings, the environment and the cultural
structure. Thus while it was previously based on public sector funds to bring it
to life, it will now be completed with the contributions of private enterprise
and the peoples’ efforts.”
Transport and frontier trade will be the backbone of this partnership
State
Minister for the Customs Mehmet Kececiler (ANAP-Konya) visited the Habur
frontier gate between Turkey and Iraq last Monday (3rd) and also made
inspections at the construction of the second frontier gate with Iraq in Ovakoy,
13 km south of the first one. This second gate will be named after Ataturk’s
father, Ali Riza Efendi, who was a customs officer in Selonica.
This
second frontier in Ovakoy is a major foreign policy development for Turkey as it
is Ankara’s preference to cooperate with Baghdad instead of Washington’s
protégé, the IKDP (Iraqi Kurdish Democratic Party) led by Mesoud Barzani.
At
the Habur frontier gate, Turkish trailers and trucks have to pay to the IKDP $70
on entering Iraq and traverse through the Kurdish controlled areas by 90 km.
During which passage they are forced to pay much more “taxes” to the armed
pashmerges (Kurdish militiamen). They are also held up for days and harassed
there.
The
new frontier gate, on the other hand, is entirely an arrangement between Ankara
and Baghdad. It will cross over the IKDP region by only 10 km and the Turkish
and Iraqi forces will ensure the safety of the route. According to an
arrangement the Iraqi Petroleum Minister made last month with the Public Works
Minister Koray Aydin (before his resignation last week) the construction of the
frontier gate and the relevant routes will be accelerated.
At
the moment Turkey’s exports to Iraq are minimal, $300 million and only iron,
cement and a few basic foodstuffs are exported to Iraq. The imports are
restricted to crude oil and diesel oil imports. But once the second route begins
to function everything will greatly change and Turkey will reach the Iraqi
market, as well as the Gulf emirates as it used to do before the Gulf war.
In
addition to the highway transport, flights are continuing between Turkey and
Iraq since June 22nd and the railway link is functioning not only
between Turkey and Syria-Iraq, but also from Damascus to Tehran via Turkey since
last March. In addition to the Istanbul-Tehran railway link, a rail link started
at the end of July between Van in eastern Turkey and Tabriz in Iran to boost the
mutual trade. It is now once a week, but if all goes well will be increased to
five times a week. Also the train link will be extended to Uzbekistan and
Kazakhstan later on. Thus the economic life in eastern and southeastern Turkey
will be enlivened greatly after 10 years of suffering of the people of these
regions after the outbreak of the Gulf war.
All
these arrangements to boost Turkey’s transport links with its neighbours and
further into Central Asia are being planned by the NSC and the Air Force
Commander Gen. Cumhur Alparuk has played an active role in this planning and
execution of the plans in his capacity as the Secretary General of the NSC
before his promotion on August 30th.
The
human tragedy behind the ruptured frontier trade with Iraq
Ankara’s
figures about Turkey’s losses from the Gulf war are soaring constantly. The
latest figure has gone up as high as $50 billion and along with these rising
figures, no matter how unreliable they may be, the Turkish nation’s and the
Government’s patience is running out about the economic sanctions against
Baghdad.
These
sanctions have unjustly penalized the people of the east and the southeast of
Turkey because the frontier trade with Iraq was the most important income for
these underdeveloped regions.
The
people of Southeast Anatolia correspond to 8.5% of Turkey’s total population,
but 35% of Turkey’s total poverty stricken people is in this region.
Unemployment is rife. One in every five unemployed Turks lives in the southeast.
Despite the Government’s strenuous efforts to develop this region the ill fate
has not changed for decades. Especially the nineties were a disastrous decade
for them when the UN sanctions against Iraq were in force; cutting off these
people’s the most important livelihood, frontier trade.
In
1990 Turkish-Iraqi trade was $2.5 billion. For six years that followed the Gulf
war, this mutual trade was reduced to nil because of the UN Security Council
resolution 661 dated August 6th, 1990 about economic sanctions on
Iraq. The people of the eastern and southeastern Anatolia suffered the most from
loosing their main livelihood and were forced to emigrate from the region.
To
change this disastrous occurrence for these people, Ankara attempted to start
frontier trade in the region for diesel oil imports by trucks and TIR trailers
in 1992. With the American pressure on Ankara it did not last long. In 1994 it
was retried, but that was also short lived. Finally in 1996, the Erbakan
Government said “enough is enough” about
these sanctions, which cost a hellish life for the regional people for six
years, and began to import four tons of diesel oil with trucks and eight tons
with TIR trailers. Nearly 50 thousand trucks and TIR trailers (48 870 to be
exact) began to shuttle between Turkey and Iraq to carry 1.8 million tons of
diesel oil (150,000 tons a month) through the Habur gate and with the 1.2
million tons more received from the eastern neighbours, Iran and the former
Soviet Union, again within the frontier trade arrangements, the total rose to 3
million tons. This cheap diesel oil, corresponding to a fifth of the total
diesel imports, provided employment to 200,000 families or nearly 1.5 million
people of the region, as in addition to the transporters, the local artisans and
craftsmen also began to earn their livelihood through exports to northern Iraq.
Two
serious setbacks, however, appeared about this happy development for the poverty
stricken people of the region.
One
was the nonstop American objection. The other was the claim with a great truth
in it that rather than the local people some profiteers and the PKK were taking
advantage of this trade. The State supervision and control proved imperative. In
doing this, however, some serious mistakes were made by the Government.
Regulating
this trade between the people and the State was left to TPIC (Turkish Petroleum
International Company), an affiliate of TPAO, the state enterprise for
petroleum. Even though the whole idea was to enliven the economic life of the
underdeveloped east and southeast and ease the sufferings of the local people
from the sanctions on Iraq, TPIC began to act like Shakespeare’s merchant of
Venice, Shylock, squeezing exorbitant profits out of the hard work of these
poverty stricken people. It was as cruel as the American embargo on Iraq and
these people.
A
truck was earning TL451 million from one shipment of diesel oil, but it could
make only three round trip a year, each one taking 125 days, because of the
queues for shipments. Only 150,000 tons of this diesel oil imports was allowed a
month and nearly 50,000 vehicles had to share it. Also one truck was owned by
two or three people and it meant very little income for the truck drivers and
owners. Into the bargain the Government, under the pressure of the Americans,
cut down this monthly imports from 150,000 tons first to 75,000 tons and then to
50,000 tons. When the TPIC also began to make profit out of these shipments, it
meant ruthless exploitation of the poverty stricken people.
State
Minister Kececiler revealed at Habur last week that this quota was again
increased to 75,000 tons a month, effective from September 1st and
tax facilities would be accorded to the people. Opening up the Ovakoy frontier
gate before long is expected to give a boost to this profitable trade because
while crude oil costs $24-25 per barrel, this oil from Iraq is $8. Also Turkish
exports to Iraq will regain momentum.
In
short, Turkey’s relations with its southern and eastern neighbours are on the
eve of a new era. Tehran has declared to be ready to start natural gas exports
to Turkey through the new pipeline and it may begin any day. As for, relations
with Turkey’s northern neighbours, primarily with the former Soviet Union and
the far off China, interesting developments are taking place on that front too.
They will be explained in Pulse’s
next issue. uras@ada.net.tr
- September 7th, 2001