PULSE of TURKEY No:107 ............................MAY 17^th,  1999

EITHER ECEVIT OR ECEVIT FOR GOVERNMENT?

Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit’s attack to the MHP through his chief advisor, Rahsan Ecevit, was most unfortunate as far as the formation of the expected tripartite coalition went. To put it in a nutshell, it was "pismis asa soguk su katmak" (adding cold water to the cooked meal) as the Turkish saying goes.

With Rahsan Ecevit’s strongly worded statement against the MHP’s grey wolves (ulkuculer) the coalition meal flopped just as it had reached the point of being served to the dining table.

MHP Chairman Devlet Bahceli’s reaction to this untimely and uncalled-for "female intervention" was understandably to seek an apology from PM Ecevit and when it did not come forward, the tripartite, DSP-MHP-ANAP coalition fell through at the last minute. The entire media reports today that "the ropes for this coalition are broken".

Have they really?

The answer to this question is another question: why did the Ecevit team take such an unfortunate step? Rahsan Ecevit’s interview to Milliyet (15^th) was not just an accident, but a part of a premeditated plan and reached the goal by destroying the tripartite coalition at the last minute. As for the reasons for it and what next, the answer is that these moves are the labour pains of the tripartite coalition to rule Turkey hopefully for the next five years and this coalition is the DSP-MHP-ANAP coalition. At the moment it seems it is dead, but in fact nothing is dead. The Ecevits, with possibly Mesut Yilmaz’s help, are preparing another tripartite coalition for future, if the DSP-MHP-ANAP one, after having been formed, eventually fails, because of the possible recurrence of the past by the MHP’s grey wolves.

No problem as long as Ecevit-Yilmaz solidarity continues

And what is this "another tripartite coalition?" It is the DSP-ANAP-DYP coalition of course. Yet it is simply impossible so long as Tansu Ciller, sticks to her position as the party chairperson and so long as millions of people believe that Mesut Yilmaz is just as corrupt as Ciller is.

Mesut Yilmaz is determined to clear himself by going to the Supreme Court and he has asked for PM Ecevit’s help for it. The DYP’s reaction to it was that Mesut Yilmaz was resorting to cheap heroism because it was not technically possible to refer him to the Supreme Court under the existing standing orders and rules of Parliament.

That is where the Ecevit team’s latest unexpected move comes in.

For Ecevit to be able to extend the promised help to Mesut Yilmaz about sending him to the Supreme Court, he must have the Speaker position in his hands, as has been proved during the Merve Kavakci affair. The question of preventing the Islamic headscarf on parliamentary premises could have been solved very easily if the Speaker had ordered Kavakci to get out or take off her headscarf. But because the oldest MP chairing the session did not do it a big crisis that rocked Turkey at the roots broke up. The reason was that there was no clear provision in the Standing Orders against the headscarf and it was in the hands of the Speaker’s initiative. When he did not use that initiative, the crisis was inevitable.

The same is the case in the question of Mesut Yilmaz’s trial in the Supreme Court. The Speaker’s judgement is needed to fill the loopholes of the Standing Orders and that is why Ecevit wants to have this seat.

What is "caduc" and what is not?

There is a rule in Turkish parliamentary procedure. All bills that have not been legislated in the previous parliament become "caduc" (nul and void) by holding fresh general elections. That is why, even though the 1999 Budget Bill passed through the Budget and Planning Committee and came to the House Floor, but not legislated there before the elections, it now has to start from scratch in new parliament and go through the Budget Planning Committee again. The same is the case for all the other bills.

But there is no clarity in the Standing Orders about the other motions and documents of Parliament. Have the parliamentary investigation reports of the previous Parliament become "caduc" or not? There are two schools of thought about it. Some say they are and others not. So the initiative rests with the Speaker. He can regard these investigation-committee reports nul and void or not. If the former happens neither Yilmaz nor Ciller can go to the Supreme Court. The whole procedure about the parliamentary investigation has to start from scratch and it takes at least two, three years especially with the DYP’s filibustering as was done in the previous Parliament. Yet if the Speaker accepts the second interpretation and puts these reports into force, Yilmaz and Ciller will become accountable before the Judiciary. This, for its part, would open the way for the next tripartite coalition by DSP-ANAP and the DYP, when Tansu Ciller is removed from the way.

That is why the Speaker election is so vitally important. Yet the Ecevit-Yilmaz team need the DYP’s votes for winning this position as long as the MHP insists that, because the PM is from the DSP, the Speaker should be from the MHP

Which is bigger 136 or 414?

Now the entire Turkish politics is in turmoil. The key is in the hands of Mesut Yilmaz, because the crisis the Ecevits have caused left two alternatives for the next Government. One is the DSP-DYP and ANAP coalition and it is simply impossible as long as Tansu Ciller and Mesut Yilmaz are in command and the other is a coalition by the "414."

FP Chairman Recai Kutan maintains that the 136 members of the DSP are dictating their will on Parliament about the Government formation and the Speaker and even Presidential elections. Instead, the remaining 414 members of the rightwing parties should come together and rule the country.

It means the Third MC (The Third Nationalist Front Government) and it may only be possible if Mesut Yilmaz joins in. Even then it would be a very shaky Government to rule, not because of a shaky majority in Parliament, but because of a shaky prestige in the world.

The ANAP parliamentary caucus is currently convening to discuss the latest developments with upheavals against the Ecevits. The ANAP rulers have been silent up to now. It is an ordeal and a test for leadership for Mesut Yilmaz. What line he will take is not known, but this publication’s feelings are that he will go along with Ecevit and the DSP-MHP-ANAP coalition will eventually be revived. Any other comment for a political observer about Turkey’s future political developments would be fortune telling at this point. uras@ada.net.tr, May 17^th, 1999

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