ECEVIT GOVERNMENT’S LIFESPAN and PENDING PROBLEMS

The caretaker nature of the Ecevit Government is a hindrance to its getting financial support from abroad. The success or failure of the forthcoming talks with the IMF depends more on foreign policy issues with the USA than the Government’s lifespan or other factors. The determining factor in this regard are the developments in Northern Iraq. Last week saw crucial signs of this policy.

PM Bülent Ecevit’s Government program took 15-16 minutes to read in Parliament on Tuesday (12^th) as he preferred not to make any promises that would not be wise for a Government that has a lifespan of 3-4 months. The debates on the Government program on Friday (15^th) had little to do with the Government program, but were mostly focused on the performance of the previous government ascertaining that the Ecevit Government is its continuation.

Indeed, this is not a new Government but one that will have governed the country for nearly two years when its tour of duty comes to an end with the April elections. Its chances of ruling in the form of a coalition with ANAP after the elections is also very high, even though these two parties may still not be able to get the majority in Parliament. For that they need to increase their seats in Parliament by at least 70 seats on the 1995 election returns and it is not a foregone conclusion, to say the least.

Ecevit’s minority Goverment has a past of one-and-a-half years and possibly an even longer future

Nevertheless, the ANAP-DSP alliance is the biggest candidate for the ruling power after the elections unless they face a shocking defeat at the polls and it is not at all likely. This fact makes them the biggest candidate for the ruling power in the aftermath of the elections and this is needed for the completion of its mission, ie the February 28^th, 1997 process to curb religion in politics in Turkey’s parliamentary system and democracy.

Naturally the 100 days ahead is critical for the future of Turkey and the new government after the elections. The country will be governed with decrees and decree laws during this period and the small one-party minority Government of today is a great advantage for PM Ecevit. If it had been a broad based Government with several parties it could not pass decrees either. Legislating the 1999 Budget, the Banks’ Bill and maybe the Social Security Bill is the most that is expected of the outgoing Parliament. These three bills are a must for obtaining a positive result from the talks with the IMF which will be held in Ankara straight after the 9-day Ramadan holiday and February 8^th.

The IMF has already declared that nothing much should be expected from its talks with Ecevit’s caretaker government due to the short period left until the elections. The IMF team chief, Martin Hardy, told Radikal (15^th) that they would learn about the Government’s intentions and expectations from the economy. The performance in 1998, the first year of the 3-year stability program, would be reviewed, but a stand-by agreement involving the Fund’s financial support to this program was not likely, he said.

PM Ecevit is not expecting any financing from the Fund either, because he recalls that the agreement he reached with the IMF in the seventies was of no avail to him. Implementation agreements had to be signed with each contributing country for the $2 billion loans pledged by the IMF at that time and it took too long for his government to survive and benefit from it, he says.

Not disheartened by the IMF’s and Ecevit’s cautious approaches to the forthcoming Ankara talks, TUSIAD (The Turkish Businessmen’s and Industrialists’ Association) has been mobilized to help conclude the stand-by agreement with the IMF as soon as possible. The Chairman of TUSIAD’s Consultative Council, Bülent Eczacıbaşı, has appealed to all the political parties to announce that they had no objection to the economic stability program and that they would support the stand-by agreement with the IMF if they come to power after the elections.

How realistic these efforts and expectation of Turkish businessmen are is another matter. PM Ecevit remembers that at the most critical point of the talks in the 70s when he was in Washington pressing the Americans for badly needed external financing, his young Energy Minister announced in Ankara, without PM Ecevit’s knowledge, that the ATAŞ refinery in Mersin (owned by Shell, BP and Mobil) would be nationalized. Who was this Energy Minister who poured icy water on stewing meat at a very critical point of the national economy? Who else, but today’s CHP Chairman, Deniz Baykal.

IMF loans depend on Northern Iraq

Even though such bad surprises, indeed betrayals, may not be forthcoming this time, it is rather naive of TUSIAD to expect all the political parties, especially the CHP, to make a public statement in support of a stand-by agreement between PM Ecevit and the IMF. Rather than TUSIAD’s efforts of persuasion, the key to the success of the talks ahead with the IMF is the degree of Washington’s satisfaction with the Ecevit Government’s foreign policy. Naturally, Turkey’s stance over Northern Iraq is the most topical subject and clearly the main issue in this regard.

It is not a coincidence that the US-Iraq conflict is heading towards a hot confrontation and that the American fighters taking off from Incirlik have begun to repeatedly hit Iraqi air defence positions. Will Turkey facilitate the success of this anti-Saddam drive by the USA or will it stand in the way? This will be the determining factor in Ankara’s success at the IMF talks ahead.

Both Washington and Baghdad, as well as the whole world are seeking an answer to this question, because Turkey’s stance in this conflict is also influencing the Gulf Emirates and Saudi Arabia about the American military operations from the South.

There were two important and contradictory developments last week to show Turkey’s stance in the Gulf conflict. One was quite unpalatable to the Americans. The Foreign Ministry spokesman, Necati Utkan, announced on January 13^th that Incirlik could not be used by the Americans for any other purpose than its legal mission and that this misson is reconnaissance from the air. It is impossible for these aircraft to bomb any part of Iraq, other than in the case of self-defence, and this is the big difference between the presence of the American Air Force in the Gulf Emirates and in İncirlik. From the south, American and British aircraft bomb Iraq without any interference from the national governments concerned. This is not possible for the aircraft taking off from Incirlik. Ambassador Utkan announced last week that there was no question of changing the status of the American forces in Incirlik.

Yet throughout the week American jets from Incirlik continued to hit the Iraqi air defence positions with the claim that Iraq fires first and that their firing back is legitimate self-defence.

The first incident in Northern Iraq was clearly true to the American claims as it was Iraqi firing that evoked the American retaliation. But as these incidents between the American fighters and Iraqi air defence positions begin to turn into a daily affair (since Operation Desert Fox between December 16^th and 19^th, 1998 nearly ten confrontations have taken place), it is difficult to be so sure about who fired at whom first.

Besides, it is understood that the Americans’ aim now is to destroy the Iraqi Command Control Centre near Mosul and to go further south than the 36^th parallel in their flights. Yasemin Çongar reports from Washington in Milliyet (15^th) that the American Defence Secretary, William Cohen, agreed with President Demirel during his latest visit to Ankara last November that the status of Incirlik will not be changed. Ambassador Utkan’s announcement last week was a confirmation of this fact which satisfies fully neither Washington, nor Baghdad, but which makes Turkey different from the Gulf Emirates. That is why Iraq does not include Turkey in its strongly worded announcements against the Gulf Emirates and Saudi Arabia for the American bombings of Iraq.

Turkey seeks anti-missile missiles

The second important development last week about this issue was Ambassador Utkan’s announcement of January 14^th to the effect that Turkey may get Patriot missiles from the United States. They were used to defend against Scud missiles that Iraq fired during the Gulf War. “It is felt that Patriot missiles could have a useful role to play and the United States has been asked whether such missiles could be brought to Turkey.The US response has been positive,” reads the MFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) declaration.

The Turkish press reported two months ago that Washington offered Patriot missiles to Turkey, but Ankara rejected them because they are surface-to-air missiles against aircraft and Turkey is interested in anti-missile missiles. Also, during the Gulf War Patriots did not perform well. It is understood that the United States has since improved Patriots greatly and that the ones that will arrive in Turkey will be able to counter Scuds (used by Iraq during the Gulf War).

Turkey’s initial interest was in Arrow missiles developed by Israel and the United States, but Washington seems to have its reservations about including Turkey in this deal. The current dispute between Iraq and the United States will be an occasion for Turkey to solve this problem.

In short, the Ecevit Government’s talks with the IMF and Washington over Turkey’s economic problems and Northern Iraq are somewhat interrelated and it may have a far reaching impact on both the economy and defence issues of both Turkey and the Middle East region. uras@ada.net.tr January 16^th, 1999