ECEVIT'S FIRE BRIGADE GOVERNMENT

“To put out the fire in Turkey, we are throwing ourselves into the fire,” said PM designate Bülent Ecevit during his televised interview, a day before he presented his Cabinet to President Demirel on January 11^th.

The main reason for this colourful definition of the difficulties in store for the new Turkish Government was TL9 quadrillion ($24 billion) debt servicing due in the first four months of the year. It is mostly domestic debt servicing, but unless the Government finds external financing for it, there will be massive domestic borrowing to make these payments. This means soaring interest rates resulting in rising inflation, despite the success in 1998 in reducing the inflation rates from 90% and 100% to 55% and 70% for wholesale and consumer prices, respectively.

The economy is top priority for the new government. Ecevit expects to reach a standby agreement with the IMF to ease the burden of $24 billlion debt servicing in the first four weeks. The Government expects to complete the vote of confidence formalities by January 15^th and pass a few economic bills before the election campaign totally paralyses Parliament. The election system will not be changed because of Tansu Çiller’s fear of the postponement of the elections from April 18^th. Neither will there be any initiatives to push through parliamentary investigation procedures. Ecevit’s foreign policy will be a continuation of the outgoing Government.

Ecevit expects a standby accord with the IMF

PM Ecevit expects to get the vote of confidence on January 15^th by reading his short Government program in Parliament on Tuesday (12^th) and having the debates on Thursday. After the weekend the Ramadan holiday will take up all the following week and there will only be a very short period left for Parliament to pass a few bills. These bills will be the 1999 Budget Bill, the Bank Bill and the Social Security Reform Bill. These three bills are definitely needed for reaching an agreement with the IMF and getting external loans.

Political bills such as the changes in the election system will not be legislated because the DYP objects to them. The reason for this unexpected development is the DYP Chairperson, Tansu Çiller’s objection to any changes in the election laws. She claims that there is a plot about postponing the elections from April 18^th. As holding the elections on April 18^th has been voted for by an overwhelming majority in Parliament and no political party favours changing this date there should be no doubt about the election date.

Yet Tansu Çiller suspects that there is a plot to postpone the elections through the Judiciary. If there is any new bill about having a two-step election system at mayoral elections as demanded by the President, somebody may get that bill repealed by the Constitutional Court and thus postpone the elections from April 18^th, believes the DYP Chairperson.

She is afraid that if the elections are not held quickly Parliament may push through the investigation committee reports and refer her to the Supreme Court. On the other hand, holding the elections in April will save her because all the bills and investigation committee reports will be “caduc” with the elections. (Caduc is a French word also used in the Turkish parliamentary system for bills becoming null and void with new elections.) For that reason the DYP has also objected to the legislation of a bill giving voting rights to Turks living abroad, in accordance with the 1995 constitutional amendments.

President Demirel has told Ambassador Şükrü Elekdağ that he decided against using his right to cancel Parliament under Article 116 because it would write off the possibility of postponing the elections. Even though it was not very likely there was still a small hope of postponing them, he said.

It is known that both the President and the military believe that the election results will not be any different from today’s parliamentary arithmetics unless the election system is changed, but PM Ecevit has declared that he is unable to pass these bills.

After the vote of confidence PM Ecevit will convene the Economic and Social Council and discuss economic and industrial questions with business and labour representatives. About half a million public sector workers are to conduct collective bargaining talks this year and Ecevit will try to work out a consensus between employers and workers about solving problems without strikes. The textile factories are especially in trouble due to the global financial crisis and there may be strikes in this sector. Ecevit’s popularity with the workers may ease these problems.

No distinctive change is expected in foreign policy

The new Government’s foreign policy will not be any different from the Yılmaz Government’s. As a matter of fact, Ecevit was dealing with foreign policy questions in the previous government too. The new government may face two foreign policy issues.

One is Cyprus. There may be suggestions to reduce the Turkish armed forces on the island now that the S-300 missiles are not going to be deployed in Cyprus. Ecevit says they have already announced that they would not bargain about this issue. He believes that the world has come to recognize that there are two independent states in Cyprus and that the solution to the problem will be found in that context.

The other foreign policy problem for the new Government is the hardening tension between Iraq and the United States. Ecevit says that the United States has no clear policy about Iraq.

Indeed, at the outset of the December 16^th-19^th crisis, President Clinton said that the objective of the missile attacks was to topple the Saddam regime in Iraq. At that time Ankara asked both London and Washington what alternatives they had for stability and the status quo in Iraq after the downfall of Saddam, but could not get any answer to their queries. In his public statements at that time PM Blair specified that their aim was not to topple Saddam.

PM Ecevit believes that the United States cannot keep foreign policy secrets. If they had had a policy for Iraq the world would have known it, but these missile attacks on Iraq have no clear objectives, said Ecevit. His intention is to try to work out a common policy for Iraq with the Americans.

The standby agreement with the IMF will definitely depend on the Ecevit Government’s success in satisfying Washington at the forthcoming confrontation in the Gulf. After the Ramadan holiday next week the Gulf may be the scene of a new escalation in the American-Iraqi tension and it will coincide with the first days of the Ecevit Government in office. The course of these contacts will be the determining factor of the talks with the IMF and that, for its part, may determine the Ecevit Government’s economic performance and future in the elections. uras@ada.net.tr, January 11^th, 1999