TURKPULSE No:75..........JULY 19th, 2002
PM Ecevit has failed in his ambition to continue with the present government until April 2004 in view of the mass resignations from his party, but he is sure to frustrate the manoeuvres to remove him from power. He will also stand fast at the head of his party through the election period until November 6th. What impact it will have on the election returns remains to be seen, but important consequences are sure to emerge from the tripartite coalition’s achievement to stand at the elections in a united front, pushing through an economic recovery program and vitally important arrangements for EU accession.
The daily resignations continue from PM Ecevit’s party, the DSP, and at this rate the resigned may well surpass those remaining behind, but it is hardly important any more, as it has achieved what it could, early elections, but fell far short of forcing the tripartite coalition out of power in the pre-election period. As it stands now, there will be early elections on November 3rd, as Deputy PM Devlet Bahceli’s MHP has moved in a surprise challenge to the opposition without informing Ecevit who, along with his other partner, Mesut Yilmaz, has nevertheless come round to resigning to it. In return, the other two partners are striving to achieve their part of the deal with the MHP’s backing, the bills for the EU accession. To this end, Parliament will be called to an emergency session on August 1st, or July 29th instead of the MHP’s initial September 1st, and decide for early elections on November 3rd.
ANAP gains time for EU accession bills with both side’s support
It will also pass the bills for EU accession, which the MHP motion did not include. Mesut Yilmaz’s ANAP is busy preparing the 16 bills for the EU accession with the Minister of State for human rights, Nejat Arseven, playing an active role. The Secretariat-General for EU Affairs under Ambassador Volkan Vural has also been mobilised to give the finishing touches to these bills demanded by the EU. Some of these 16 bills were already on Parliament’s agenda before it took summer recess. The thorniest one among these bills is the one about abolishing the death sentence to which the MHP is objecting, but this hurdle will be overcome thanks to the opposition’s help and Devlet Bahceli has accepted his coalition partners to cooperate with the opposition in this regard.
As for the opposition’s motion to call Parliament to an emergency session on July 22nd as attempted by the DYP, it is expected to be frustrated even though the AKP has filled the shortfall in number to have 110 signatures. It has already become a nonsensical document because of the gross defects it had as pointed out in the last issue of Pulse. The DYP motion had three articles – elections as soon as possible, legislation of the EU accession bills and the amendment of the election and political parties bills. Because it lacks the texts of the bills for EU accession, and only vaguely mentions passing the EU bills, whereas emergency sessions can only be held for specific purposes and cannot deal with other topics, the House Speaker Omer Izgi deleted, under standing orders, the article about the “EU accession bills”. He passed the other two articles for early elections and amendment of the election/political parties’ bills, which are contradictory because elections cannot be held for a year if the election system is changed. On July 22nd it is expected to fall through with the absence of the quorum, because the SP is not supporting it either. The new formation is becoming a political party that day and it is not certain that it will support the DYP bill either, given the fact that it stands no chance of success, anyway.
On the other hand, ANAP’s move to present the bills for EU accession at the August 1st or more likely July 29th emergency session is much more realistic and time saving. As the composition of Parliament has been changed drastically with almost half of the DSP resigning from the party, the composition of the parliamentary committees and that of the Chairmanship Council of Parliament should also be changed if the DYP’s vague motion is to be accepted. This is because it will be necessary to prepare the EU accession bills at the committees and subcommittees whereas ANAP is drafting these bills beforehand with the opposition’s cooperation through Arseven’s contacts and they will be streamlined.
DYP Chairperson Tansu Ciller has pledged to support the EU accession bills and the same is the case for the other opposition parties with some minor changes to address their own problems, such as the political rights of Erbakan and Erdogan. The chances of success of ANAP’s current effort for making all the 16 bills ready by August 1st and passing them through during the emergency session debates are quite high.
MHP closely interested in the two religious parties’ votes
The important point for the two religious parties, the SP and the AKP, concerns the election rights of their leaders, Necmettin Erbakan and Tayyip Erdogan. The former regains his political rights on February 23rd, 2003 and cannot stand at the forthcoming elections in November, but the SP maintains that he can be an independent candidate, though Tufan Algan, the Chairman of the High Electoral Board, does not share that opinion. The latter has to wait until January 2003 in order to gain his election rights with a court verdict on grounds of good conduct. In the meantime, he can stand for the elections even though he may not be the party chairman, maintains the AKP. Again Algan disagrees, but unless he passes a rule through the High Electoral Board it is his personal opinion, according to the two religious parties.
Meanwhile, both these party leaders are subject to corruption charges. Erbakan has already been sentenced to fines and prison sentences for fraudulently transferring the defunct RP’s assets to the SP and it is at the appeal stage. Erdogan is facing a trial for unaccountably increasing his wealth by TL256.1 billion in three years when he was Mayor of Istanbul. He did not appear at the first sitting of the trial in Ankara on Wednesday (17th) and his lawyers tried to adjourn the second sitting till after the elections, but the court decided on October 23rd, shortly before the elections. Screening him at the trial with a grave corruption charge ten days before the elections will definitely not help Tayyip Erdogan’s election chances. Besides he is facing other corruption charges along with his successor Gurtuna, the incumbent mayor of Istanbul.
The AKP is not the only party that is closely interested in Erdogan’s political future – other right-wing parties, particularly the MHP, Turkey’ s business and national security circles, and (by judging the Disinformation Mechanism’s non-stop machinations in the media in favour of Tayyip Erdogan) Washington are also keenly interested. And this interest on the part of the Americans is as keen as their desperate efforts to make Kemal Dervis the next prime minister of Turkey.
According to the mass circulation daily Hurriyet (18th), TUSIAD (The Turkish Industrialists` and Businessmen Association) chief Tuncay Ozilhan has handed a secret report to Deputy Chief, TGS, Gen. Buyukanit to the effect that the left is tapering off and that the DSP may fall below the 10% threshold at the elections. The AKP will be the winner with 242 seats, by far the first. The DYP will be second with about 20% of the vote and ANAP, the CHP and the MHP will pass the threshold, but by the skin of their teeth. Which one of them may fall below the 10% threshold is anyone’s guess according this survey, which may well prove to be the wishful thinking of certain quarters rather than any scientific truth, as the election returns will definitely show.
Any truth in claims of Tayyip Erdogan’s prospective premiership?
This TUSIAD report drawn up by Prof Seyfettin Gursel with the simulation method at the beginning of May 2002 does not naturally include the latest splintering in the DSP which is sure to adversely affect the election chances of not only the DSP, but probably more so those of the CHP. That is why it was interesting to note that Kemal Dervis and CHP Chairman Deniz Baykal had a two-and-a-half hour tête-à-tête on Wednesday (17th) to discuss the election chances as two old friends.
The interesting side of the claim that makes the AKP out to be the prospective first party in the elections ahead is that the people were saying under the hardship of the economic crisis last year that they were fed up with the existing political parties and that they would try a new one. Tayyip Erdogan`s AKP was the only new party then. But today there are at least two others, not counting scores of others with no election chances. (Algan expects 25 parties to take part in the November elections.) They are the DTP led by Mehmet Ali Bayar with lots of media coverage in his favour and the new movement led by Ismail Cem with even more media coverage of international dimensions, but not with much real chance of success in the election. It could have been a strong movement if it had joined hands with the well-established and wealthy CHP (which enjoys Ataturk’s legacy), but instead it weakened the party’s chances by becoming a separate political party on the left. Baykal told these realities to Dervis on Wednesday and said that they were a victim of Ismail Cem’s ambition to become a party chairman. Indeed, there is no other reason for the split between the CHP and the new movement.
Dervis has apparently been influenced by Baykal’s true assessments and he is now going to the United States for 10 days for consultations (with the boss according to the MHP, the deputy Chairman of which party, Sevket Bulent Yahnici, said that letting Dervis into State secrets is tantamount to admitting the Greek Chief of the General Staff in the NSP discussions for Cyprus.) It should be no surprise if Dervis revises his opinion to be one of the Troika upon his return from Washington, because this new movement has already fizzled out after the first few days of artificial excitement blown out by media balloons, with tragicomic incidents. For instance, the Secretary-General of the DSP, who represented PM Ecevit at the political party leaders’ summit on June 12th, Hasan Gulay (DSP-Manisa), was one of the surprise resignations from the party. Gulay visited the Ecevits on Mothers Day with a bunch of flowers. On his return to parliament he received a phone call from “Rahsan Ecevit,” “You lazy bones didn’t I tell you never to come to our house again.” Ten minutes later he was one of the resignees. Needless to say, it was not Rahsan Ecevit who had called, but an impostor from the splintering group. The dirty trick had worked and the world media was heralding the resignation of Ecevit’s representative at the Cankaya summit. The DSP is now electing a new person to the all-important position of the party secretary-general, especially in the election period.
Washington’s role became too obvious
PM Ecevit refrains from using derogatory words about the resigned, but he does tell his visitors that it is “treason” and he is certainly angry at, not only those who have resigned, but also the force behind them. Under these conditions, the American Deputy Defence Secretary Wolkowitz was in Ankara last week to reveal that the USA had made up its mind to topple Saddam, with or without Turkey, after the severe summer heat is over in the Gulf. He did not get satisfaction from Ankara, but a heavy bill to the tune of $20-30 billion is there among Turkey’s demands for even considering such a move much less being a part of it. Washington may well be able to topple Saddam without Turkey at a rather heavy cost as it may involve costly street fights in Baghdad and other cities, but can never sustain it without Turkey’s help, according to experts’ assessments.
The Ecevit Government has already prepared “State Policies” about the Gulf, Cyprus and EU accession and the change of government will not change the result after the elections. It is especially the case if a coalition of Ciller’s DYP, Erdogan’s AKP, the Troika’s splinters and Dervis comes to power. The latest events, indeed, plots for a government without the MHP and Ecevit were too obvious an external interference in Turkey’s domestic affairs. The nation would never accept it if it comes to learn of the details. Ecevit has enough experience to know that it does not pay to expressly blame the United States and is therefore speaking of having excellent relations with the Americans, but Yahnici and other MHP rulers do not have the same experience. Election times are good opportunities for explaining such realities to the people through direct contacts in village cafés if not from TV screens. uras@ada.net.tr - July 19th, 2002