TURKPULSE No:141..........19th, 2005
DID BUSH APPRECIATE ERDOGAN AS A MAN OF HIS WORD?
PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan has certainly dropped lots of bricks with his sudden and surprising jump into the world diplomatic arena from obscurity, and the force behind this phenomenal political achievement, Washington, has been suffering the most from the mistaken behaviours of this newcomer. The Turkish Prime Minister’s official visit to the United States, including President Bush’s audience to him in the White House on 8 June, was certainly meant to be a major occasion to patch up the accumulating grievances of the Superpower. Was this mutual target of bridging the differences obtained from this important occasion? For the answer please read the background and the analysis below.
PM Tayyip Erdogan proved to be a man of his word to two top leaders of the world with two important diplomatic events that took place within a matter of half a year.
President Putin welcomes PM Erdogan’s keeping his promise
The first was to the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, who was in Ankara for a State visit last December. Very important economic and political matters were discussed during this first State visit from Moscow since President Podgorny’s visit to Ankara in 1972, with an express feeling of doubt on the part of the Russian leader that they may never go into force because of the approaching 17 December 2004 resolution of the EU summit concerning a date for negotiations for the Turkish accession to the Union. President Putin was apparently expecting, and rightly, that the Turkish-Russian arrangements for an enormous economic and tourism cooperation could all turn to dust within a matter of days when the Europeans pressed the Turkish Government in Brussels for strict visa applications to the Russians and other hindrances to this massive cooperation in the offing of these two big neighbours.
PM Erdogan assured him that it would not be the case and he was not long to prove to the world that it was not empty talk. In Brussels he would not budge an inch from his word to Moscow despite the all out pressure put to bear upon him by the entire Western world. In frustration, the Europeans changed the text of the 17 December resolution and excluded free movement facilities for the Turks even after the accession which would not be forthcoming before two decades, any way. (Link to turkpulse 133 of 16 January 2005) They also invented, in direct violation of the letter and spirit of the 1963 Treaty of Ankara, a privileged partnership status instead of full membership for Turkey, through the German Christian Democrats and some French hardliner politicians. The reputable British media reported only a few days ago that Turkey stood zero chance for accession to the EU and indeed Ankara has begun to calculate what chance of accession it has, given the fact that even if all the difficulties are overcome at the tough negotiations ahead Turkey’s accession will still be subject to a referendum in France.
Nevertheless, it seems it hardly bothers the AKP Government which is still holding on to the EU accession for practical reasons only, just as the Blair Government is doing for the time being till Washington decides what to do about this awful situation which is proving to the Americans themselves that they’ve made a grave mistake for their future plans by bringing Tayyip Erdogan to power through the Fetullah Gulen mechanism, at the expense of undermining Turkish security forces’ trust in the United States. As to what these “practical reasons” why the AKP Government is still holding on to the unreliable EU accession are, they are multiple, ranging from the fact that no country can survive all alone in today’s world to the wish to see the Eurasia leg of Turkey’s foreign policy getting stronger as a universal force and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) is taking big strides in this direction. The Astana conference of the SCO within a few weeks is expected to yield fresh fruits in this direction, with Turkish contractors fulfilling their part of the deal by rapidly making the new capital of Kazakhstan a modern capital that is quite a match for any developed western country. This service, for its part, gains Turkey billions of dollars of additional hard currency that helps to narrow down its chronic current accounts gap, while consolidating the mutual confidence of Turkey and this new shaping of the world security system.
PM Erdogan’s keeping his promise to President Putin six months ago was a big boost to Turkey’s alternatives to the EU accession.
Erdogan also proves that Turkey will not be “an extra” in world affairs
The shortest definition of the outcome of PM Erdogan’s recent official visit to Washington is that it was proof to the American Administration at top level that Turkey will not be a “figurant” (extra) in anyone’s plans for security systems of the world, but be a major force in them, as he had said in so many words at the AKP’s parliamentary caucus shortly before his departure for this historic visit.
That was what the squabble over Syria between President Bush and him boiled down to. The Turkish Prime Minister’s words about Syria in the White House were not only in defence of President Asad, but also an indirect criticism of the American invasion of Iraq, both arguments being most unpalatable for the Bush team. He urged Washington to be patient with the current Syrian Administration which had evacuated Lebanon with Turkey’s active role in persuading President Asad, who was also carrying out a democratic evolution that should be encouraged as Turkey was doing. PM Erdogan spoke highly of Iraq’s economic, secular and cultural system, except for the brutal dictatorship of Saddam, but that could also be altered with methods other than the American military intervention, at such a bitter cost for all. His insinuations, if not express statements, in this direction did not at all go down well with President Bush who said that the United States and its coalition did not think so.
PM Erdogan was certainly undiplomatic when he had described the Felluje victims as “martyrs” or accused Israel of “State terrorism” earlier in the year. Neither was it a wise or sustainable move to reject receiving the American Ambassador for six weeks, but what he said at the Oval Office in Washington was the belief of most people in the world including perhaps even the majority of the American and British peoples. And unpalatable or not, they were not ineffective on the American Administration’s assessments, either. Indeed, a day before the audience, a top American diplomat advised Turkey to do exactly what it has been doing as a State policy even before the formation of the Erdogan Government.
Addressing a joint American-Turkish gathering in Washington on 7 June, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick said that he had visited Iraq twice recently and left that country “with a sense that this is a country of actual extraordinary wealth.” He went on, “The people that I met, many of whom represent a diaspora that is coming home, extremely educated, extremely thoughtful, there’s a tremendous amount of talent in that country. As you fly over and look at the buildings and the structures, you realize Iraq’s potential in terms of its development, particularly compared to other developing countries, and even as you sort of look at the overall territory and have a sense of agricultural potential of Iraq.”
PM Erdogan’s words to President Bush were almost identical with the insinuated belief that the world could have put an end to Saddam’s cruel dictatorship with means other than the present horrible situation and suffering in Iraq if it had not been for the American invasion. He was determined not to allow its repetition in Syria or Iran, let alone be an extra in any such aggression. Syria was moving towards democracy and it should be encouraged, was his message, much to the shock of the American side of the audience.
Even the most pro-Turkish American politicians, such as the co-chairman of the Turkish Friendship group of the House of Representatives, Robert Wexler, declared Turkey’s Syria policy as “unacceptable” and took strong exception to PM Erdogan’s and President Sezer’s official visits to Damascus this year with the claim that they were encouraging Syria in its anti-American policies in the region.
The answer to Wexler and the American Administration in general came from the Turkish opposition. Deputy Chairman of the CHP, Onur Oymen reminded the media as a one-time top Turkish diplomat that Washington had taken no notice of Turkey’s similar complaints. He said back in March when Ambassador Edelman first voiced these complaints, “At the most unleashed period of the PKK terrorism, the US-Syrian relations were living in their brightest periods. The US Secretary of State Warren Christopher went to Damascus exactly 22 times. He held a five-hour meeting with President Hafez Asad in Switzerland. The United States took no notice of our warnings of this rapprochement.”
Zoellick’s 360-degree perspective suggestion for Turkey surprises Ankara
National security minded Turks were greatly surprised by Zoellick’s suggestion to Turkey “to have a 360-degree perspective in operating in a global environment,” as it was exactly what Turkey has been doing and what the United States was doing its best to forestall its success.
PM Erdogan’s visit to Washington was preceded by other top Turkish rulers such as those of the Speaker of Parliament, Bulent Arinc, and the Deputy Chief, TGS, General Ilker Basbug. Naturally, important security questions such as the recently stepped up PKK terrorist infiltrations into Turkey from Iraq and the American lip service to opposing it were very much topical. In this atmosphere, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State was talking of 360-degree flexibility in Turkey’s adaptation to the globalization drive in the world. Close scrutiny of Zoellick’s statement shows that he was talking of the economy, rather than national security issues, but still they are inseparable in today’s global world.
While Turkish-Russian trade aims at a $25 billion trade level this year and a $50 billion objective is round the corner, all the USA was offering to Turkey was QIZ, Qualified Industrial Zones, with no substance as textiles and clothing sectors are excluded.
Also President Bush’s insistence on Turkey’s boycotting Syria and Iran is tantamount to cutting off the arteries of its trade with its neighbours. With the first Iraq war in 1990-91 the Americans delivered deadly blows to Turkey’s rapidly expanding trade with Iraq and the Gulf for ten years or so. Now Turkish exports to Iraq are going up to $2.5 billion a year, but at the expense of the rising number of Turkish drivers’ deaths. Trade with the Gulf would have continued to be reduced to nil if it had not been for the Syrian route to the Gulf for Turkish exports. The Americans do nothing else but dilly-dallying about opening a second transit route for Turkish trucks bypassing the Barzani hurdle.
The same is the case with LISA (Libya Iran Sanctions Act) which is a dead letter but which Ambassador Edelman insisted to be in force and exceeded his diplomatic limits by saying before PM Erdogan’s official visit to Tehran last year that these sanctions would go into force if he went to Iran. Months later the American Ambassador tuned down his blunt remarks and said it was up to Turkey to decide about the visit to Syria. The route through Iran is the only way through which Turkey trades with Azerbaijan and other Central Asian Turkish republics.
Into the bargain, an Australian Senator, Ross Lightfoot, was recently on the scene, instead of the familiar face of the billionaire George Soros, to undermine Turkey’s oil interests in Iraq. Senator Lightfoot reportedly distributed $20,000 to the Kurds and Iraqis in order to abolish the oil prospecting contracts signed by Turkish companies during Saddam’s time. PM Erdogan and Foreign Minister Gul personally took up this case to render these efforts ineffective. Ankara recalls that before the outbreak of the Iraq war, Washington had threatened France, Russia and other countries about canceling the oil prospecting agreements signed by the Saddam Government.
The battle will be over oil and natural gas pipelines from Central Asia
Zoellick was express enough to cite the recently completed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline as an example of the kind of role Turkey might play in this perspective and thus become “a major service provider in the region”.
The real question is whether Ankara is ready to play the role the Americans are expecting Turkey to play about being the major service provider for the Caspian oil and natural gas. Naturally the answer rests in one of the Americans’ basic strategy principles: “Be on the winning side”.
With crude oil prices approaching the $60 level as a major instrument for the solution of Russia’s enormous economic problems after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is obvious who is getting the upper hand in this struggle. Turkey’s Eurasia experience since 1990 has also confirmed this observation and after the American economic fiascoes of recent years the EU has also fallen into a mostly political quagmire.
The imminent question in this regard is whether Kazakhstan will join the BTC, and contrary to western claims it does not appear promising for the Americans. Still, it is too early for Turkey to make a definite choice at this point and it plays for time pending the shaping of developments. That is why Ankara is cautiously taking some small steps to avoid Washington’s fury, but they all fall far too short of satisfying the United States.
One such step was taken before the Prime Minister’s Washington visit when Ankara revealed to have accepted the American request to join PSI (the Proliferation Security Initiative). The US Undersecretary of Defence, Douglas Feith, explained to Turkey at the end of January that PSI is a response to the growing challenge posed by the proliferation of WMD, their delivery systems, and related materials worldwide – anything from peace operations to humanitarian operations or combat operations. “With regard to Turkey,” Feith said in Ankara on 1 February, “we have been discussing various ways that we can work together. Some of the (Global Defence) Posture discussions relate to dealing with missile threats, and some of them relate to the work that we are doing together in the war on terrorism in Afghanistan, or supplies that are going to Iraq. It is a rolling process…It is going to take years to carry out these talks with so many countries around the world.”
Fikret Bila of Milliyet (2nd) reports that Turkey will be the leader of a PSI exercise within NATO in 2006 in the eastern Mediterranean and that Washington attaches great importance to this development especially in regard to its Iran policy. Last week the same newspaper (7th) reported that certain sensitive equipment of the nuclear reactor in Busher, Iran went there from Russia via Turkey’s Black Sea port Samsun and the frontier gate with Iran, Gurbulak. Three TIR trailers carried them to Busher from Samsun last year. Customs inspectors said that there was nothing illegal in these transit shipments to Iran, but considering the sensitivity in the world about Iran’s reactor it would be a good idea to inform the International Atomic Agency about these passages through Turkey.
Americans are very keen on having PSI exercises in the Black Sea, but Turkey and Russia join hands in turning down such initiatives.
Likewise, the Americans want to set up the Caspian Guard force in Georgia for the security of the BTC pipeline and its further steps but they do not get Turkey’s sincere support for it, to say the least. The Caspian Guard, launched in the fall of 2003 will include a radar equipped command centre in Baku, reports the Wall Street Journal and other American papers, but Turkey’s reluctance to play an active role in these projects result in accumulated frustration in the United States. In return, Turkey is more than frustrated about the American initiatives for establishing an independent Kurdish State under Mesut Barzani and the infiltrations of PKK terrorists in Turkey from their base in Northern Iraq with C-4 plastic bombs which claim Turkish soldiers lives almost every day. Ankara believes that Washington is playing a dangerous game which, superpower or not, it cannot possibly win. uras@ada.net.tr – June 19th, 2005