PULSE of TURKEY No: 36-46 .................................................... AUGUST 1998
PULSE of TURKEY No:36 YILMAZ
GOVERNMENT MINUS YILMAZ UNTIL ELECTIONS?
Parliament votes for elections and takes two months
recess. Attempts to bring clarity to the Yýlmaz-Baykal agreement for elections bring more
confusion to Baykal himself. The key issue, the nature of the 56th Government,
is to be determined at the political chess board and the Kasparov of the Turkish political
chess game, Ecevit, made successful moves last week. Forthcoming elections must strengthen
the hands of secular politicians and President Demirel is expected to use his influence
and power for it. That means the continuation of the tripartite coalition after
Yýlmaz’s resignation. The only possible alternative is a wide range “election
government”, but it takes two to tango. Baykal’s plans may be doomed at the outset.
PULSE of TURKEY No:37 DEMÝREL GIVES DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT TO ARAFAT
But long-term military cooperation goes on with
Israel as from 1991, with Turkish assurances that it is against no one. Middle East peace
process stalled. Turkey and Israel are unanimous that terrorism should not be used as an
instrument in the peace process or international relations. Çiller’s busybodying messes
up a favourable cooperation for intelligence sharing, but the future may be promising.
PULSE of TURKEY No:38 TURKISH-ISRAELI RELATIONS DIVERSIFIED – AT SURPRISING SPEED AND
VOLUME
Mutual business volume is heading for $2 billion
with a balance in favour of Israel, but promising arrangements are in the pipeline. The
mutual trade volume, mostly in Turkey’s favour, is expected to reach $2 billion in 2000
and business volume much higher. Israel intends to liquidate certain industries in favour
of high-tech industries which may give a boost to stagnating Israeli business in Turkey
though religious prejudices are a hindrance. Third countries may be a more fruitful
cooperation. Military cooperation surpasses expectations, but remain at technical level
and do not move on to strategic alliance.
PULSE of TURKEY No:39 THE
EURASIAN FREE TRADE AREA
The nucleus of the economic organisation in the
offing is BSEC which completes foundation process, but backbone is Turkish-Russian
cooperation. Phenomenal advancement in bilateral relations between Ankara and Moscow is
given low profile. Turkey’s bilateral free trade arrangements mushroom and free trade
zones flourish within the country. The Eurasian Free Trade Area will find elaborate
infrastructure when it’s ready to appear legally in the international sphere.
PULSE of TURKEY No:40 FREE
TRADE ZONES DURING THE CUSTOMS UNION PROCESS
Turkey’s free trade zones do not infringe EU
rules and its memberships to various international economic cooperation organizations do
not obstruct Customs Union arrangements with the EU.
PULSE of TURKEY No:41 ALARMING
SIGNS IN THE ECONOMY: ARE THEY REAL OR FICTIVE?
The fight against inflation is not a failure, but
it is no stunning success either. Stock exchanges going through a shock wave. Interest
rates are rising, but economic fundamentals are not yet in jeopardy. Bureaucrats stick out
their necks to prevent populism before elections. An excellent harvest turns out to be a
stumbling block for the success of the monetary program.
PULSE of TURKEY No:42 SOUTHEASTERN
QUESTION ON THE AGENDA
Prominent Turkish diplomat suggests strong action
against Syria for support of PKK. He says Syria is, de facto and de
jure, at war with Turkey by sheltering and supporting terrorism. International
conditions are suitable for Turkey to retaliate. Europe may give political status to this
terrorist organization. Ambassador Elekdað expects the PKK to be an international
political question before long and suggests social, economic and political measures to
solve the problem. The State Department agrees without losing sight of historic facts that
are not necessarily in its favour.
PULSE of TURKEY No:43 ANKARA DRAWS LESSONS FROM ASIAN AND RUSSIAN CRISES
Turkey carefully studies Asian and Russian economic
crises to avoid such occurrences at home. Finance Minister says hot money is a scourge; it
is not possible to make reforms without profound measures and preparations. Treasury Chief
says the only way out is current economic parcel for Turkey. Timely preparations in Ankara
about the Russian crisis may have a reverse effect and boost the mutual cooperation of the
two neighbours facing similar problems of different intensities. Turkey’s free market
experience is an advantage in this respect.
PULSE of TURKEY No:44 TURKISH-AMERICAN
ACTION PLAN HEADING FOR A CRUCIAL TEST
Five-point Action Plan agreed upon by Clinton and
Yýlmaz last December will be put to the test over the Caspian energy lines. Is the exodus
of $2 billion from IMKB in two weeks a coincidence or part of Soros’s tricks in Russia
and Turkey today, after the Asian Tigers and Japan last year and the one in the pipeline
for China? The key in these tricks is the capitalist world’s little known new principle:
“Raise him to the point of incompetence” (then drop him without a
parachute when the time comes). It is the new version of the 19th-20th
century imperialism’s tactic: “Give him enough rope to hang himself” (as Saddam
did). Turkey is familiar with these tactics and seeks sound remedies in cooperation
with the United States and the other victims, if possible. Washington is well aware of
Turkey’s value and most probably will find a way to satisfy Ankara.
PULSE of TURKEY No:45 WATER, A NEW CAUSE FOR WAR?
Turkey aims to use water for peace. Greek Cypriots
can quench their thirst with Turkish water. After the TRNC, “anybody” (meaning in fact
Israel) can get water from Turkey following lengthy bargaining behind the scenes. The
supply of Manavgat water to the Middle East starts any day. Syria has to go beyond lip
service to solve its terrorist sheltering problem before expecting any cooperation with
Turkey on the water question.
PULSE of TURKEY No:46 THE OPPOSITION’S DILEMMA IN THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN
The two big opposition parties, FP and DYP, have
only one theme in the election campaign ahead - fight for democracy. How feasible is this
theme? What are the pros and cons? What are the chances of success? Are there
constitutional safeguards against such success and what are they? Attempts to form a
“Democracy Front” and the following developments clearly indicate what can be expected
at the elections and thereafter. President Demirel brings further clarity to the
situation.
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