ANAP CONVENTION INDICATES NEW GOVERNMENT

ANAP’s National Convention over the weekend was the best indicator for the government that will follow the current Yılmaz Government after its inevitable downfall on November 25^th. The new government is expected to be an ANAP-DYP-DSP coalition under Bülent Ecevit. Its alternative may be a DYP-CHP government with FP support, but it is very unlikely. “Political Islam” is not favoured even as support from outside the government, the reason being the NSC’s estimates that religious fundamentalism is the next wave of agitation to preoccupy Turkey in the period ahead as the PKK’s military strength is being weaned and Apo is on his way to life imprisonment in Germany, if not in Turkey.

Prime Minister Mesut Yılmaz dominated the 6^th National Convention of ANAP on November 21^st-22^nd and was unanimously re-elected the party chairman with the votes of 1208 delegates. The National Convention mirrored the behind-the-scene political developments in Ankara on the eve of the imminent downfall of the current government. It was also the best indicator of what to expect of the new government.

ANAP convention was a rehearsal for Yılmaz-Baykal showdown 

The clearly unpopular party at the convention was the CHP. All the political party representatives were applauded at the convention during the presentation of guests, except for some weak booings silenced by applause to the DYP delegation headed by Nahit Menteşe. There was loud booing for the CHP delegation headed by Ali Dinçer and shouts in chorus “down with Deniz Baykal”, despite congress chairman Ülkü Güney’s warnings and call for “a standing applause for all guests”. A similar fate was shared by Italy during the presentation of the representatives of foreign diplomats in attendance. They were all applauded amidst shouts of “down with Italy”.

DSP representatives, State Minister Mustafa Yılmaz and Ahmet Tan, received the loudest ovation. In return, the third partner, the DTP, was simply non-existent at the convention and PM Mesut Yılmaz did not have a single word to say about the DTP or its Chairman, Hüsamettin Cindoruk. His praise for the coalition partner solidarity went to DSP and its Chairman, Bülent Ecevit.

A flower arrangement labelled “Prof Tansu Çiller, DYP Chairman” was prominently placed in the conference hall packed with 1208 delegates and over 6000 guests. The same day Çiller was saying at a rally in the far off southeastern province, Siirt, that the DYP was open to all support for the formation of the new government. “We will put our hands under the stone to lift this burden if any duty is incumbent on us in forming the new government,” she promised.

Back in Ankara, Chairman Mesut Yılmaz, in his address to the convention, was careful about his criticism of the other parties. He focused his attacks on the CHP and especially Deniz Baykal, along with organized crime. His message about the imminent downfall of the Yılmaz Government and the formation of the new one was:

“Who are jubilant now about the forthcoming downfall of the Government? Who are rejoicing and making calculations about it by rubbing their hands together? The gangs, profiteers, smugglers, terrorists are. Those who associate their personal benefits with burying the country in the dark are jubilant because their bright days are coming, they think…No one should think that anything will be left unfinished. We will finish what we have started. We did not find Turkey in the street. We will not let secessionists, fundamentalists, gangs go scot-free. It is our duty to our country.”

Yılmaz’s consolidated rule in ANAP and its significance for Turkey

The ANAP convention passed with absolute discipline and Mesut Yılmaz’s leadership was consolidated. There were no factions to defy the Chairman’s preferences for the central administration. Nor did anyone stand for the position of chairman to compete with him. It was proof of Mesut Yılmaz’s consolidated position in the party as a young leader since the fifth National Convention on August 24^th, 1996.

At the previous convention topguns of the party’s conservative faction, Korkut Özal, Abdülkadir Aksu and Cemil Çiçek put up a strong resistance to Mesut Yılmaz’s secular management and Işın Çelebi had defied his leadership by running for the election of chairman. Today, there were no fundamentalists in the party and the entire party was behind him, satisfied with Yılmaz’s premiership for the last 16-17 months. Two years ago, Yılmaz had just left power after a few weeks of troubled partnership with Tansu Çiller. He was saying at the convention that Çiller was sitting in the mud of corruption. “I would have been the prime minister today if I had turned a blind eye to theft,” he was saying about his row in public with Çiller over her refusal to give an account of TL500 billion she had received from the PM’s secret funds on the last day of her rule as well as other alleged corruption cases.

This time Mesut Yılmaz did not say a word about Çiller or the DYP. He focused on Deniz Baykal instead and this fight will continue at the censure motion debates today.

As a matter of fact, Mesut Yılmaz has been ignoring Tansu Çiller and not attacking or answering her for quite a while now, while the DYP Chairman has uttered very strong words, such as “dishonourable corporal”, against Mesut Yılmaz. Her latest “gem” was only a couple of weeks ago. After Korkmaz Yiğit broadcast his tape recorded charge against Mesut Yılmaz, Çiller said that Yılmaz would soon leave his office “handcuffed”.

The Prime Minister did not utter a single word in answer. Instead he has now sued Korkmaz Yiğit and his two TV stations for TL200 billion indemnities for fabricating these lies against him. He also directed his arrows against Deniz Baykal who had over an hour’s secret talk with Korkmaz Yiğit after these broadcasts before he withdrew his support from the Government. Mesut Yılmaz asked Baykal if he was receiving his orders from the Mafia and said that he had launched an investigation into Korkmaz Yiğit’s construction businesses with Beşiktaş Municipality.

The Mayor of Beşiktaş, Ayfer Atay, is from the CHP and very shady businesses are reported about Korkmaz Yiğit’s luxury apartments in Beşiktaş and other parts of İstanbul. Ayfer now complains that “Tax inspectors have recently been swarming and blowing a wind of terror in the Municipality with the end in view of discrediting Deniz Baykal.”

It is now expected that PM Yılmaz will supply evidence of Deniz Baykal’s and the CHP’s involvement in these shady businesses. A taste of it was lived through at the beginning of the censure motions in Parliament on Friday. The CHP Chairman strongly retorted to PM Mesut Yılmaz by calling him “slanderer” when he asked if Baykal was on the moon when the government including his party had sold Sümerbank to Hayyam Garipoğlu, another upstart businessman who can find over $1 billion loans from international markets by clicking his fingers, as he did at the privatization of POAŞ (the Petrol Office).

Baykal said he was not in the Government at that time and that the Prime Minister was slandering him. Indeed, it was shortly before Baykal took over the CHP Chairmanship from Hikmet Çetin, the Speaker of Parliament, but the relevant decree contains the signature of Hasan Akyol, the CHP Minister of Industry of that time.

These arguments will continue at the parliamentary debates this week with, no doubt, interesting scenes in Turkish politics and lots of embarrassing moments for Baykal.

Who will be handcuffed in Turkish politics? 

Paradoxically the reasons for the downfall of the present Yılmaz Government are the very reasons for the Ecevit Government in the pipeline. This Government is falling because Parliament has passed no bill since it reconvened on October 1^st, as the CHP concentrated on supporting other opposition parties' investigation motions against certain ministers and PM Mesut Yılmaz. It was against the protocol Yılmaz and Baykal had signed, and this dispute went as far as the collapse of this Government.

Now PM Yılmaz says that there has been no other Prime Minister in Turkey who has had as many investigation motions against him as Yılmaz himself. It was because Mesut Yılmaz did not object to these motions and left his party members free about how to vote, remarking that those who render public services should be ready to face such charges and be able to account for them.

There were even more investigation motions against Tansu Çiller, but none of them got anywhere because she has been using all her political power to forsetall their moving through parliamentary committeees and the House floor. She had even gone into partnership with Necmettin Erbakan to save herself, while she had been the arch-enemy of Erbakan’s party before the December 1995 elections.

But when Mesut Yılmaz volunteered for opening investigations against himself and these motions went through, Çiller could no longer prevent the parliamentary procedure from going through against herself. Now that there are at least half a dozen elaborated upon investigation motions against each one of them, the House floor is to vote on them before long. Accepting even a single one of these motions by the House floor means the person concerned, Yılmaz or Çiller, or both will go to the Supreme Court for trial. Under the Constitution, such a person cannot be Prime Minister.

This is the mechanism opening the path to Ecevit’s premiership. In other words, by pushing through these investigation motions in Parliament since October 1^st, Çiller and Baykal have paved the way for the Ecevit Government and prepared their own ends. Mesut Yılmaz will go into the Supreme Court through one door and come out the other, because the accusations are nonsensical. But what will happen to Çiller? We will all see who comes out “handcuffed”.

Will there be a surprise “marriage” between Yılmaz and Çiller?

Talking about the surprises and intricacies of Turkish politics an American diplomat once told the Pulse editor in gest, “I make all the research and contacts possible, reach a decision about forthcoming Turkish developments and report to Washington the opposite of my decision. It works.”

Such an eventuality should never be dismissed in Turkish politics. It is just possible that Mesut Yılmaz and Tansu Çiller may forget about the past and join hands for the good of the country instead of sending one another to the Supreme Court.

At the time of drafting this article, this matter had not yet been resolved. There are multiple aspects of such a surprise development, but no one should rule it out. The consequences of such an arrangement would be deep rooted and the elections may then be left to the proper time, to the end of the year 2000, so that legal amendments can be made for the prevention of a recurrence of political Islam rule in Turkey in future. It would also involve radical changes in the political and administrative system to conform to the Copenhagen Criteria about Turkey's adjustment to Europe.

The thorniest issue about this development is a conciliation between Yılmaz and Çiller and dismissing investigation motions. This is not so easy even if the two leaders reach an agreement about it, because such votings are secret and party centres cannot take binding resolutions about it under the Constitution. But as things stand at the moment, this tripartite political arrangement among ANAP, the DYP and the DSP under Ecevit’s premiership has to work, with or without the Supreme Court issue. Mesut Yılmaz has proved to be a reliable man of his word during his appearance in Turkish politics as the youngest minister in the Cabinet 15 years ago.

He is now a young leader staging a perfect coordination with Turkey’s two most veteran politicians, President Demirel and DSP Chairman Ecevit. With the blessing of the Armed Forces and other secular forces of Turkey they may find a way out of this difficulty. That was what PM Yılmaz was saying when he announced at the National Convention that they had not found Turkey in the street and that they would not leave the job unfinished. uras@ada.net.tr, November 23^rd, 1998