AFGHAN CRISIS – “AMERICANS FIND THE BEST WAY”

By activating NATO Charter’s Article 5 against terrorism President Bush has found the best way if US forces keep to Turkey’s principles set out in PM Ecevit’s letter. These principles may not look ideal to Washington and may go against its policy hitherto, but they constitute a good framework for the United States to hold onto in its present dilemma. For the background and details of this dilemma and Turkey’s position, as well as what to expect out of the whole turmoil, please see the article below. 

Excluding the United Kingdom, which was prompt in responding with an all-out active military support to President Bush’s appeal to the allies about determining their contribution under Article 5 of the NATO Charter in the fight against terrorism, Turkey was the first to come out with tangible proposals about this fight. (See Pulse`s assessment in the current affairs column.) In a nutshell, Turkey is advising against direct allied military action in Afghanistan or anywhere else, but calls for reinforcing the anti-Taliban front in the north, the Northern Alliance, in order to wipe out this “archaic regime” of the 21^st century. It also makes tangible proposals about Turkey’s active contributions in this combat ahead.

Churchill’s observation explains the American mentality and policy change  

PM Ecevit’s letter to President Bush is totally coherent with Ankara’s basic policy about Central Asia and Afghanistan since the end of the Cold War, but it inadvertently puts the United States in an embarrassing position as it is diametrically opposed to the American policy in the region hitherto. How can Washington now support the anti-Taliban alliance in the north after having settled Taliban in most of the country with its support to this archaic regime via Saudi Arabia and especially Pakistan until very recently?

The answer probably rests in Winston Churchill’s shrewd observation during World War II. He once said, “Americans find the best way by trying out all the other ways.” This fact, which may be the secret behind the American miracle today, makes it much easier for Washington to take a sharp turn in its foreign policy concerning the region. But is it so easy for its allies in this adventure, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia? Is it possible for the peoples of these countries whose brains were washed with religious fallacies for so long? Can Pakistan’s Islamic Republic and Saudi Arabia’s theocratic state survive after the downfall of Taliban in Afghanistan with the fight of the modern world against it under the American leadership now? Iran’s Islamic Republic is a bit different as the Iranian people themselves are fighting in free elections against the Islamic clerical fanaticism by electing President Khatami’s moderate administration, which is exerting efforts to patch up its grievances with the Western democracies. President Khatami is now having talks with the British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, in Tehran, after similar contacts with Germany much to Washington’s disenchantment.       

It is a fact that the USA did resort to terrorism in the region by creating Taliban and Bin Laden in Afghanistan and the PKK in Turkey, but the twin tower tragedy was truly too tragic an event for anyone to endure or persist in the wrongdoing.

Today President Bush seems to be sincere in looking forward with determination to eradicate this evil, terrorism, from the surface of the earth and Turkey is with him equally sincerely and with its millenniums of experience in world affairs.

No one yet knows what will come out of the current American and British force concentrations in the Gulf and Indian Ocean, but it seems that Turkey’s rationale about refraining from land operations in Afghanistan has by and large influenced the Anglo-American policies. Their attention is now focused on reinforcing the Northern Alliance with the end in view of replacing the Taliban with this more civilised movement. Towards the end of this fight between the Northern Alliance and Taliban, American and British forces may move into Afghanistan to settle a pro-western democratic regime there, but how will democracy live in such a backward and uneducated community is another matter.

The background of the Northern Alliance and the fight against Taliban

The Northern Alliance is composed of three groups and it is hard to talk of any alliance between these factions. In the northwest is the Turkmen faction led by Turkey’s protégé Uzbek General Abdul Rashid Dostum (Americans spell it Dostam) and the pro-Iranian Hazaras led by Muhakkik forming a 15-20 thousand strong force, put together. In the centre is the weakest group under Turan Ismail Khan whom General Malik betrayed at the beginning of 1997 and sold him to Taliban for dollars. Ismail Khan recently fled from Taliban and is now leading the second front. It has about 5-6 thousand fighters. The strongest is the Tajiks in the east, but only recently, on September 10^th, their charismatic leader Ahmed Shah Masood was killed by the Taliban and it delivered a blow to this group, as well as the Northern Alliance. Still this 20-25 thousand strong group may again pull together under Gen. Fahim now leading the Tajiks.

The conditions of Afghanistan’s northern neighbours, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, determine the performance of the Northern Alliance. With a UN resolution, Turkmenistan enjoys neutrality status and is trying with some success to steer clear of these religious agitations in politics. Tajikistan is the country that suffered the most from Islamic fundamentalism of the Taliban after its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. There are Russian soldiers protecting Tajikistan’s frontier with Afghanistan against Taliban infiltrations and terrorism. Recently the number of Russian forces in Tajikistan went up from 35,000 to 50,000. So the Tajik front of the Northern Alliance is the strongest of all and Gen. Dostum is now receiving American assistance via Turkey. Even though President Kerimov and Gen. Dostum himself have denied that American aircraft had brought aid material to Uzbekistan after PM Ecevit’s letter to Pres Bush, it is a fact that the military airport near Tashkent did have at least one cargo aircraft from Turkey, but it is not yet certain if Termiz airport near the Afghan frontier received any. Sending Turkish or American fighters to the region from Turkey is out of the question anyway, according PM Ecevit’s letter.

As a matter of fact, Uzbekistan’s position is the most interesting in these current developments. Pres Kerimov said on Sunday (25^th), “We have not had any talks with anyone about the arrival of American aircraft and not pledged to receive them.” Yet Turkish logistics and assistance to Uzbekistan have already been going on for a long time despite Washington’s objection, which was slowing down this assistance and contributing to the Taliban’s victories against Gen. Dostum’s forces. Now the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction and with the American aid material from Turkey, the Taliban may well have to evacuate Mazar-e Sharif before long.

Turkey’s position in the Washington-Moscow strife about CIS or NIS

Turkey’s policy in the aftermath of the downfall of the Soviet Union has been to help the Turkic republics of Central Asia to have secular regimes. Moscow’s outlook and practices were no different, but American support to the Taliban was putting Ankara in a delicate position of siding with Moscow against Washington in not only Central Asia, but also the Caucasus and the Gulf.

The last ten years since the breakaway of Turkic and other republics from the Soviet Union in 1991 was the scene of an underhanded struggle between the United States and the Russian Federation. While Moscow has been trying to stop the disintegration and regain the breakaway republics in an arrangement similar to the British Commonwealth, Washington has exerted efforts to deepen the split and institutionalise it. That is why while the Russians established CIS (The Commonwealth of Independent States) as the new form the USSR, official American documents refused even to refer to this acronym and invented its own NIS (Newly Independent States). During Yeltsin’s time CIS marked time, even receded. But since Putin’s taking the reins of Russia, CIS has been advancing in leaps and bounds.

Recent developments concerning another acronym invented by Washington are proof of it. Apparently inspired by its strategic island in the Pacific Ocean, the Americans organised in October 1997 in Strasbourg, a grouping of dissidents of Moscow in CIS and called it GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) and extended it to GUUAM in April 1999 in Washington with the adherence of Uzbekistan. President Putin’s competent management of his country, however, was a deadly blow to Washington’s efforts to rot CIS from within and this artificial gathering began to erode for several reasons.

Above all, the Americans got tired of feeding Georgia with loans. It poured $800 million dollars to President Shevardnadze and on per capita basis it was the biggest aid the US gives abroad, even more than to Egypt and still Georgia was demanding more. The discontinuation of this generosity resulted in Tbilisi’s loss of heart in GUAM or GUUAM. The fall of PM Tansu Ciller from power in Turkey in July 1996 put an end to using the PM’s secret funds in adventures in the Caucuses, and Azerbaijan began to have a better understanding with Moscow. Tiny Moldova did not think much of going against Moscow in its region. Shortly after its adherence to this group President Kerimov began to have second thoughts about the wisdom in being a part of GUUAM and joined the Shanghai Five at its meeting last June to form a strong anti-Taliban grouping with Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. It is now called the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and aims at joint combat against terrorism and separatism in Central Asia, which stemmed from the Taliban.

Thus GUUAM has been left behind as a meaningless and impotent gathering with Ukraine as its backbone. Western efforts to keep up Ukraine’s interest in GUUAM through assistance via Poland are bound to disappear now that the communists have won the recent elections in Poland. Also, the Blue Stream project will make Ukraine more dependent on Moscow as Russia will have the possibility of cutting off energy supplies to Ukraine, which has enormous energy import debts to it. At present, when Moscow cuts off the natural gas supply to Ukraine, Turkey suffers too as the pipeline passes through Ukraine and it induces Moscow to resume the gas supply.

President Demirel’s letters, on his last days in power, to the countries concerned and NATO about setting up a Caucasus stability pact received an ice cold reception from Washington, but was welcomed by Moscow as it was naturally including the Russian Federation. The idea has now been forgotten, but the recent developments over the Taliban have revived this idea in practice. Both Russia and Kazakhstan have declared policies about the fight ahead against the Taliban similar to Turkey’s. Defence Minister Sebahattin Cakmakoglu was in Kazakhstan only this week and a Turkish-Kazakh anti-terrorism protocol was instrumental in the appearance of the coordinated stance of the two countries about contributions to President Bush’s appeal for help.

The Taliban’s days are numbered with this worldwide solidarity against it. The real question now is will Washington stop there or attempt to use its tremendous armada in the Gulf against other countries, starting with Iraq. In that event Washington’s path will definitely part from Ankara’s and the other countries of the region. uras@ada.net.tr - September 26^th, 2001